Tropical Weather | Hometown Forecast Services

Is Erika a Threat to Florida?

After bringing gusty winds and flooding rains to portions of the Lesser Antilles, Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico, Erika is passing south of Hispaniola this afternoon. As of 2pm EDT, Erika was centered just off the south coast of the Dominican Republic, and still stubbornly heading westward at 16 mph.

Satellite loop of Tropical Storm Erika from Midday August 28, 2015.

Erika remains weak, with maximum sustained winds near 50 mph. Strong wind shear and its proximity to the mountainous terrain of the Dominican Republic are keepING the storm weak.

For several days, computer models have been forecasting Erika to turn toward the west-northwest and eventually northwest, around a ridge of high pressure anchored over the central Atlantic Ocean. Erika has defied the models, and continues moving toward the west. As Erika nears the western edge of the high pressure ridge, and a trough of low pressure enters the Gulf of Mexico, Erika should finally start to turn more towards the northwest over the next 24 hours. Eventually, a turn toward the north should happen, bringing Erika closer to the state of Florida. Since Erika has traveled much farther to the west than anticipated, the risk to the Southeast has been greatly diminished. The main question now is – what part of Florida is at the greatest risk?

Computer model forecasts for Tropical Storm Erika's future track. — Computer model forecasts for Tropical Storm Erika’s future track.

Most of the models are now showing a threat to the Gulf Coast of Florida. However, most of these models also show Erika spending a lot of time over parts of Hispaniola and/or Cuba. Tropical systems depend on warm water (over 26 degrees C) to maintain their strength. A track over land could result in the dissipation of Erika before it even reaches Florida. Of the models that do keep the circulation of Erika intact, most of them keep it at tropical storm strength. As a result, it appears as though the biggest threat to Florida would be heavy rainfall and flooding. This is both good and bad, depending on which part of Florida you are talking about. Much of South Florida is in a severe drought, so rainfall would be welcome across the area. Meanwhile, the west coast of Florida, especially near Tampa Bay, has seen severe flooding and record rainfall this summer, so additional heavy rain would not be welcomed.

Erika has also produced flooding across portions of the eastern Caribbean. Over 12 inches of rain was reported in Dominica, with devastating flooding resulting in at least 12 deaths on the island. Across Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands, which have also been in a severe drought this year, rainfall totals were mainly under 2 inches. Erika did produce strong winds across the region, however. Some of the highest reported winds were as follows:

Location	Peak Sustained Wind	Peak Wind Gust
St. Croix, US Virgin Islands	38 mph	62 mph
Sint Maarten, Netherlands Antilles	36 mph	52 mph
St. Thomas, US Virgin Islands	33 mph	48 mph
Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic	25 mph	43 mph
Guadeloupe	25 mph	40 mph
Punta Cana, Dominican Republic	25 mph	40 mph

Elsewhere in the Atlantic, a tropical wave will move off the coast of Africa this weekend, and conditions could be favorable for it to slowly develop as it makes its way across the ocean.

The Pacific, especially the Central Pacific, remains active. Tropical Storm Kilo is centered about 160 miles west-northwest of Johnston Island, moving toward the west at 10 mph. Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph, and additional strengthening is expected. A tropical storm warning is in effect for Johnston Island, but conditions should start to improve over the next 12-24 hours as Kilo pulls away. Kilo is expected to turn more towards the northwest and strengthen into a hurricane as it heads across open waters towards the International Date Line.

Hurricane Ignacio is centered about 840 miles east-southeast of Hilo, Hawaii, moving toward the west-northwest at 10 mph. Maximum sustained winds are near 90 mph, and some additional strengthening is expected over the next 24-36 hours. After that, Ignacio should start to weaken and continue west-northwestward. The current track brings Ignacio just north of the Hawaiian Islands early next week. Residents of Hawaii should monitor Ignacio’s progress this weekend.

Satellite photo and forecast track for Hurricane Ignacio.

In the Eastern Pacific, Hurricane Jimena is centered about 1075 miles southwest of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico, moving toward the west at 12 mph. Maximum sustained winds are near 90 mph, and Jimena could strengthen into a major hurricane over the next 24-48 hours. Jimena will remain over open waters, and is no threat to any land areas.

Where Will Erika Go? How Strong Will Erika Get?

As Tropical Storm Erika continues to approach the Lesser Antilles, the questions remain the same as they were a few days ago: Where will Erika go and how strong will it get?

The first question is somewhat easier to answer in the storm term. As of 2pm EDT on Wednesday, Erika was centered about 245 miles east of Antigua, moving toward the west at 17 mph. It seems fairly likely that Erika will impact the islands of the northeastern Caribbean. As a result, Tropical Storm Warnings remain in effect from Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands eastward to Montserrat, and a Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for Guadeloupe. A warning means that tropical storm conditions are likely within the next 36 hours, while a watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the next 48 hours.

How strong Erika will be when crossing the islands is still a big question. Currently, Erika has winds of 45 mph. The official forecast from the National Hurricane Center, is for Erika to maintain its current strength or strengthen slightly over the next 48 hours. However, there are some indications that it may actually weaken before then.

Satellite loop of Tropical Storm Erika from Wednesday afternoon August 26, 2015

In the last few frames of the satellite picture, if you look closely, you can see the lower-level circulation of Erika pulling away from the western edge of the thunderstorm activity. This is a tell-tale sign that wind shear is still impacting the storm. For Erika to strengthen, the wind shear will need to lighten up, and allow the thunderstorm activity to redevelop near the center of the storm. Until that occurs, Erika will not gain strength. Some of the computer models are showing the possibility that Erika degenerates into a tropical wave as it nears or passes the Leeward Islands, similar to Tropical Storm Danny a few days ago. This would bring some much-needed rainfall to the drought-stricken region, without the sustained strong winds that normally accompany a tropical storm.

In the longer term, things become a bit murkier in terms of the track and strength of Erika. It seems fairly likely that what’s left of Erika will continue on a west to west-northwest track and could start to strengthen (or redevelop, if Erika dissipates), as it nears the Bahamas this weekend. At this point, there is no consensus as to what will happen.

Forecast track from the National Hurricane Center as of 2pm on August 26.

The National Hurricane Center forecast (pictured above) brings the storm into South Florida as a weak hurricane early Monday. However, on the various forecast models, the solutions range from a track into the Eastern Gulf of Mexico to one the keeps it near or east of the Bahamas and then out to sea. There are some that show a potential threat to Florida or the Southeast, but since this is still at least 5-7 days away, the odds are fairly low at this point. Still, residents of the region should keep an eye on Erika, as it could have some impact early next week.

In addition to the track questions, there are plenty of questions as to how strong Erika will get. Erika should remain a weak tropical storm for the next 48-72 hours (unless it dissipates into a tropical wave). Beyond that, the uncertainty becomes large. Many of the forecast models keep it a tropical storm, while some strengthen it into a hurricane, in some cases a very powerful hurricane (see image below). Assuming it survives the journey toward the Bahamas, conditions should be favorable for Erika to start to strengthen towards the end of the week. The track it ultimately takes will determine if it is able to get there.

Intensity forecast from various models for Tropical Storm Erika as of 8am EDT August 26, 2015.

If Erika does make landfall in Florida as a hurricane, it will be the first storm to do so since Hurricane Wilma did on October 24, 2005, nearly 10 years ago. In the hurricane database that goes back to 1851, the 10-year drought for Florida is the longest on record. The previous record was 6 years, between 1979 and 1985. While some may argue that the lack of landfalls is a good thing, in many ways, it’s also bad. Reports have indicated that over a million people have moved to Florida since 2005, and the vast majority of those people have likely never experienced a hurricane, let alone a major hurricane. They may not know how to prepare for a storm that could leave them without power for a week or more. They may not know what a mandatory evacuation means or if they are in a mandatory evacuation zone. They may not know where the nearest shelter is located. Now would be a good time for residents of the region to brush up on this, in case Erika does threaten the region this weekend.

8-26-2015 2:41pm EDT

Severe Weather in the Northeast and Another Tropical Threat for the Caribbean?

A strong cold front will move across the Northeast on Tuesday, producing showers and thunderstorms across the region, and bringing much drier air into the region.

Showers and a few thunderstorms are expected across the region in the morning. If enough clearing develops after these move out, the atmosphere could destabilize enough to trigger another round of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon, and some of these could become strong to severe. The Storm Prediction Center is forecasting a marginal risk of severe storms across much of central and southern New England for Tuesday. The main threats with any storms that develop will be heavy rainfall, strong winds, and frequent lightning.

Behind the front, much drier air will settle in, after more than a week with dewpoints of 70 degrees or higher. Temperatures will remain seasonably warm though, unlike areas to the west, where much cooler conditions were noted behind the front. In Rapid City, South Dakota, the low temperature dropped to 41 degrees Monday morning, breaking the old record of 43 degrees, set in 1972. Cheyenne, Wyoming dropped to 39 degrees Monday morning, which also broke a record. The old record low was 40, set 119 years ago in 1896. Several locations in Montana dropped below freezing Sunday morning, with frost reported across parts of the area.

Meanwhile, the tropics remain active. Tropical Storm Erika has formed about 955 miles east of the Leeward Islands. Erika has maximum sustained winds near 45 mph, and is moving toward the west at 20 mph. Erika is expected to slowly strengthen over the next 24-48 hours while turning a bit more towards the west-northwest. The current forecast brings Erika very close to the Northern Leeward Islands Wednesday night or early Thursday. Watches will likely be issued for some of the islands early Tuesday. Beyond that, there is plenty of uncertainty as to where Erika will head and how strong it will be. Some of the models have Erika dissipate over the eastern Caribbean, similar to what happened to Danny, over the next few days, others strengthen it into a hurricane and send it towards the Bahamas.

Forecast track for Tropical Storm Erika as of 11pm EDT August 24, 2015

Since Danny fizzled while it was crossing the Leeward Islands, it brought only a few showers to the Virgin Islands. This region has been in a severe drought for the past several months, and it was hoped that Danny would bring some much -needed rain to the region to help put a dent in the drought. St. Croix, USVI has received only 7.31 inches of rain in 2015, a little over 12 inches below the normal total of 12.33 inches. Things haven’t been much better in San Juan, Puerto Rico, where 21.8 inches of rain have fallen this year, 10.38 inches below the normal for the year-to-date.

Meanwhile, in the Eastern Pacific, Tropical Depression 12-E formed late Monday. The depression was centered about 1535 miles west-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California with top winds near 35 mph. The depression was drifting toward the west at 3 mph, but should start to turn more towards the west-northwest and pick up speed over the next few days. The system should strengthen into a tropical storm over the next day or so and head out over the open waters of the Pacific, not threatening any land areas. Another tropical wave south of Mexico could develop into a tropical depression later this week as it moves across open waters.

Forecast track for Tropical Depression 12-E as of 8pm PDT August 24, 2015.

In the Central Pacific, Tropical Depression Kilo has top winds near 30 mph and is centered about 150 miles east of Johnston Island. It is expected to drift toward the north then turn toward the west over the next few days with some slow strengthening expected. Kilo is not expected to impact any land areas for the next few days. Meanwhile, Hurricane Loke is located over 1000 miles west-northwest of the main Hawaiian Islands, crossing the Pearl and Hermes Atoll with top winds near 75 mph. Loke is expected to turn towards the north-northwest and head out over the open waters of the North Pacific while losing tropical characteristics over the next few days.

In the Western Pacific, Typhoon Goni has crossed southwestern Japan and is moving into the Sea of Japan Tuesday afternoon. Goni still has top winds near 95 mph, but is expected to steadily weaken as it crosses the Sea of Japan and heads toward far eastern Russia. Goni produced a wind gust to 102 mph in Makuazaki when it made landfall on Monday. On Sunday, Goni crossed the Ryukyu islands, southwest of the Japanese mainland. As the storm passed directly over Ishigakijima, it produced a wind gust to 159 mph.

Weather is Always Happening

Tropical Storm Danny is the main weather story for today. However, after registering a category 3 rating for winds in a previous hurricane hunter recon mission, it is only a tropical storm and continues to decrease in strength. This is evidenced by the storm’s central pressure rising to just above 1000 mb this afternoon, significantly higher than 2 days ago. While the forecast track is still a little uncertain, the current forecast from the National Hurricane Center (NHC) is for the storm to take a track to the west, just south of Puerto Rico overnight Monday. This is just after a recent track change from toward the northwest to toward the west. The storm will continue to weaken and should be a tropical depression after crossing the Leeward Islands according to NHC’s forecast. Currently the NHC has posted Tropical Storm Warnings for Antigua, Barbuda, Montserrat, St. Kitts, Nevis and Anguilla and Tropical Storm Watches for Saba and St. Eustatius, St. Maarten, Puerto Rico, Vieques, Culebra, and the US Virgin Islands.

[Image of 5-day forecast of predicted track, and coastal areas under a warning or a watch]

The storm itself is about 165 miles east-southeast of Guadeloupe and 210 miles east-southeast of Antigua. The maximum sustained winds within the storm are 40 MPH and will continue moving west at 16 MPH. Threats for this storm will be for rain from 2 to 4 inches of rain through Tuesday and wind up to tropical storm force in warned areas. A tropical storm watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the next 48 hours. However, a tropical storm warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected within the next 36 hours and action to prepare for for the storm should be taken.

The main problem with this storm, along with dry air nearby, has been that there has been a strong field of shear that has eroded the southwestern side of any strong thunderstorms.

Other systems are tagged by the NHC in the Atlantic Ocean closer to Africa. The one with the best chance of developing is located 800 miles west of the Cape Verde Islands and has a chance for development into a tropical depression toward mid-week. Whether it has any impact on land is yet to be determined. This system continues to move to the west at 20 MPH.

A storm just southeast of the East Coast is also tagged by the NHC with a possibility of development and is currently affecting portions of the East Coast with cloud cover and humidity at the very least. Showers and a few storms are moving inland to the US from the storm itself as well. This storm has 0% chance of development.

In addition to the tropical weather, severe weather is possible today as the front that produced severe weather over the Northern Plains yesterday moves over Michigan and portions of the Ohio River Valley today. A tornado or severe thunderstorm watch has not been issued over this area, however, strong winds, a tornado and hail are all possible with today’s storms. It must be said that SPC’s chances of the above threats over Michigan and portions of the Ohio River Valley are much lower than yesterday’s.

Also, afternoon showers and storms with the threat of strong winds may occur over portions of Southeastern US. Similar to yesterday, strong winds follow the front and will reside around an adjacent low pressure system as hinted at by wind advisories over portions of the Northern Plains.

In addition, dry weather continues over portions of the Western United States and Alaska as forest fires continue to burn. Larger fires are in California, Washington, Idaho, Oregon and Montana. This year, according to the National Interagency Coordination Center, 7,448,217 acres are burning, which is above the year-to-date 10 year average of 5,350,800 acres. Much of this has been caused by warm and dry weather over the Western US along with thunderstorms that have a lack of rain, but plenty of fire-sparking lightning.

(As of August 23 2015)

Severe Weather in the Plains, Tropical Storm Watches in the Caribbean

A strong cold front will help to trigger strong to severe thunderstorms across portions of the Plains States and Mississippi Valley today. Showers and thunderstorms are already moving across parts of the North Dakota and Minnesota, with a few reports of hail up to one inch in diameter. As the front marches eastward, conditions will become more favorable for severe thunderstorms from the Upper Mississippi Valley into the Central and Southern Plains. The main threats are large hail, wind gusts to 70 mph or more and tornadoes.

Severe Weather Outlook for August 22, 2015 from the Storm Prediction Center.

Behind the front, strong northwest winds will usher unseasonably cool air into the Northern and Central Rockies and western portions of the Plains states. Wind advisories and high wind warnings are in effect for much of the region as wind gusts of up to 50-60 mph are likely today and Sunday. Some record low temperatures are possible Sunday morning in parts of Montana, Wyoming, and western portions of the Dakotas and Nebraska as low temperatures are expected to tumble into the 30s and lower 40s. Frost advisories have been issued for parts of western Montana.

Meanwhile, Hurricane Danny is starting to steadily weaken while approaching the Caribbean. As early early Saturday afternoon Danny was centered a little more than 600 miles east of the Leeward Islands, moving toward the west-northwest at 12 mph. After peaking as a Category 3 hurricane on Friday with winds near 115 mph, dry air and increasing wind shear have weakened Danny to a Category 1 with top winds near 85 mph, and additional weakening is expected. Tropical Storm Watches have been issued for much of the Northeastern Caribbean, including the islands of Antigua, Anguilla, Barbuda, Montserrat, St. Kitts, Nevis, Saba, St. Eustasius, St. Maarten, Guadeloupe, St. Barthelemy, and St. Martin. A tropical storm watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the next 48 hours.

Current forecast track for Hurricane Danny

Danny is expected to weaken into a tropical storm before crossing the islands. It should continue to weaken as it moves towards the US Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico. Some of the forecast models are showing the possibility that it could dissipate as it nears Puerto Rico. Others keep it as a very weak storm which then moves near Hispaniola and into the Bahamas, where conditions could become more favorable for it to start to strengthen again.

While the future track and strength are still very uncertain, one thing that is more likely is that Danny will bring beneficial rainfall to portions of the US Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico. The region has been in the midst of a severe drought for much of the year, with less than half of the normal yearly rainfall in some areas. While Danny won’t bring drought-busting rainfall to the region, every little bit that falls is beneficial.

Elsewhere in the Atlantic, a weak area of low pressure about 150-200 miles north-northwest of Bermuda will likely head out to sea over the next few days. There is a slight chance it could acquire tropical characteristics and become a tropical storm, but this seems unlikely. Much farther to the southeast, a tropical wave passing south of the Cape Verde Islands is producing disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity. As it crosses the Atlantic over the next several days, conditions should become more favorable for the system to develop. Yet another tropical wave will move off the Coast of Africa this weekend. This system could also start to get better organized as it crosses the Atlantic over the next week.

In the Central Pacific, both Kilo and Loke weakened to Tropical Depressions overnight, but they should both re-strengthen into tropical storms over the next day or two. Loke should remain a tropical storm while heading northward, possibly impacting Midway Island early next week. Kilo is the more immediate threat. Kilo should head northwestward while slowly strengthening over the next 24 hours. Sometime after that, a turn toward the north and eventually northeast is expected. Exactly where the storm makes the turn is critical to determining if there is a threat to parts of Hawaii. Right now it looks like there will only be a threaat to some of the westernmost islands, but if it turns earlier, that will change things. Conditions are favorable for Kilo to become a hurricane early next week.

Current satellite phot and expected track of Tropical Depression Kilo from the Central Pacific Hurricane Center.

Farther west, there are still two typhoons in the Western Pacific Ocean. Typhoon Atsani is expected to steadily weaken while heading out to sea well south and east of Japan. Tyhpoon Goni will bring gusty winds and heavy rain to parts of Taiwan today, before setting its sights on Okinawa and southwestern Japan tomorrow and Monday.

Tropical Update – Double Trouble?

The tropics continue to heat up, and it looks like two is the magic number. There are two typhoons in the Western Pacific, two tropical storms in the Central Pacific and in the Atlantic we have Hurricane Danny and two other areas to watch.

Satellite photo from NWS Ocean Prediction Center showing 5 active tropical cyclones on August 21, 2015.

Starting in the Atlantic, Hurricane Danny underwent a burst of rapid intensification on Wednesday, with top winds now near 115 mph. This means Danny is now a major hurricane – Category 3 on the Saffir-Simpson scale. Danny remains a very small storm, with hurricane force winds only extended 15 miles from the center of the storm. Danny is moving towards the west-northwest at 10 mph, and this general track is expected to continue for the next few days. It appears as though Danny has peaked in intensity and should start to weaken over the next few days. The environment ahead of the storm is rather hostile, with dry air and strong wind shear, which will likely help Danny weaken to a tropical storm as it approaches the Northern Leeward Islands on Monday. Some of the computer models are indicating the Danny may degenerate into a tropical wave as it moves into the Eastern Caribbean Monday and Tuesday.

Computer model forecasts for the track of Hurricane Danny.

Elsewhere in the Atlantic, there is a weak area of low pressure south of Bermuda that is producing scattered shower and thunderstorm activity as it interacts with an upper-level low pressure system. The storm should turn more towards the north and eventually northeast over the next few days, staying over the open waters of the Atlantic. There is the possibility that it could acquire tropical or subtropical characteristics, but it shouldn’t impact any land areas.

Another tropical wave has moved off of the coast of Africa and is approaching the Cape Verde Islands. While it is disorganized at the moment, conditions appear favorable for some development over the next few days as it moves swiftly across the Atlantic Ocean.

Across the Central Pacific, the most immediate threat is Tropical Storm Kilo. Kilo has top winds near 40 mph and is located about 480 miles south-southeast of Hilo, Hawaii. Kilo is moving west-northwest at 16 mph, and should continue on this track over the next day or two while steadily strengthening. Kilo is expected to turn more towards the north and northeast over the weekend. Depending on when the turn actually occurs, Kilo could be a threat to the western Hawaiian Islands. There is still a lot of uncertainty as to how strong Kill will eventually get, but it seems likely that it will at least attain hurricane strength.

A little farther to the west, Tropical Depression Four-C strengthened into Tropical Storm Loke on Friday. Loke is located about 500 miles west of Johnston Island, and is moving toward the north at 6mph. Top winds are near 45 mph. Loke should continue on a general northerly track through the weekend before turning a bit towards the northeast early next week. Loke should remain over open waters through the weekend, but the current track brings it close to Midway Island early next week. The current forecast indicates the Loke should remain a tropical storm, but it wouldn’t be a big surprise if Loke became a Hurricane over the weekend.

Heading across the International Dateline and into the Western Pacific Ocean, twin typhoons continue their journeys. The bigger threat is Typhoon Goni, located just north of the northern tip of the Philippines. Goni has top winds near 105 mph, and some strengthening is possible over the weekend as Goni heads northward, passing just east of Taiwan. This will bring another round of torrential rain to the island, not long after Typhoon Soudelor dropped upwards of 40 inches of rain on parts of Taiwan. Winds have already gusted as high as 72 mph in southeastern portions of the Taiwan from Goni. A slight turn toward the northeast is expected this weekend, and Goni will likely make landfall in southwestern Japan early next week as a weak typhoon. Earlier on Friday, Goni dropped up to 15 inches of rain in the northern Philippines, with wind gusts as high as 51 mph.

Forecast track from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center for Typhoon Goni.

Meanwhile, Typhoon Atsani is located several hundred miles southeast of Japan with top winds near 105 mph. Atsani is expected to head north and then northeast over the weekend while steadily weakening. Atsani should remain over open waters for the next few days, with only a few small islands near the current path of the storm.

The Eastern Pacific has remains quiet for a few days, but another system is being monitored for development over 1000 miles southwest of the Baja California. The tropics are expected to remain activate for the next few weeks as the peak of hurricane season in the Atlantic and Eastern Pacific approach.

Tropical Update – Danny Becomes a Hurricane, TD 3-C Forms Southeast of Hawaii

As the climatological peak of the 2015 Hurricane Season draws closer, things are starting to get more active in the Atlantic.

At 11am, Tropical Storm Danny was upgraded to a hurricane with top winds near 75 mph. Danny was located about 1100 miles east of the Lesser Antilles and heading towards the west-northwest at 12 mph. The future of Danny is still a bit uncertain. It should continue to head on a west-northwesterly heading for the next few days, likely reaching the Lesser Antilles late Sunday or early Monday. How strong it will be at that time is the big question. The official forecast from the National Hurricane Center calls for Danny to cross the Antilles as a hurricane, then weaken to a tropical storm as it nears Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands. However, many of the computer models are indicating that Danny weaken back to a tropical storm before reaching the islands, and several have it degenerating to a tropical wave shortly after moving into the Caribbean.

Satellite photo of Hurricane Danny from midday August 20, 2015.

Meanwhile, an area of disturbed weather southwest of Bermuda is producing shower and thunderstorm activity this afternoon. Conditions are favorable for the system to gradually acquire some tropical or sub-tropical characteristics over the next few days. Most indications are that it should remain over open waters, but it could increase the surf along the East Coast through the weekend.

In the Pacific, Tropical Depression 3-C has formed about 700 miles southeast of Hilo, Hawaii. The forecast for the depression is steady strengthening while continuing on a general northwesterly course for the next day or two. The storm

Model Forecasts for Tropical Depression 3C

should start to turn more towards the north, and could threaten portions of the Hawaiian Islands this weekend or early next week. While the system will likely become a tropical storm (and given the name Kilo), how strong it eventually gets is a question mark. Some models keep it just a tropical storm, while many of them to strengthen it into a hurricane. Residents of the 50th state should keep a close eye on this system’s progress over the next few days.

Farther to the west, there are twin typhoons in the Western Pacific. The more immediate concern is Typhoon Goni. As of midday Wednesday (EDT), Goni was located just northeast of the northern tip of the Philippines with top winds of 135 mph, and was moving towards the west at 7 mph. Goni is expected to make a turn towards the north later today and eventually northeast over the enxt few days. This would bring Goni east of Taiwan, but also heading right towards southwestern Japan. Some of the islands east of Taiwan and south of Japana, including Okinawa, could be directly in the path of the storm.

Satellite photo from Noon EDT Thursday of Typhoon Goni (left) and Super Typhoon Atsani 9right) — Satellite photo from Noon EDT on August 20, 2015 of Typhoon Goni (left) and Super Typhoon Atsani (right)

Farther east is Super Typhoon Atsani. Atsani has top winds near 150 mph and is located about 450 miles southeast of Tokyo, moving northwest at 10 mph. Atsani is expected to turn more toward the north and northeast, heading out into the open Pacific while steadily weakening.

There are a few other areas of disturbed weather being monitored for development, including a system in the eastern Pacific about 1000 miles southwest of the southern tip of Baja California and another Atlantic tropical wave just emerging from the coast of Africa. With the climatological peak of hurricane season still a few weeks away, conditions should remain active for a while.

Tropical Trouble for the Caribbean and Hawaii?

The 2015 hurricane season has been rather slow thus far in the Atlantic, but things are starting to get a bit more active.

Tropical Depression 4 formed on Tuesday, and quickly became Tropical Storm Danny by Tuesday evening. As of midday Wednesday, Danny had top sustained winds of 50 mph and was located about 1400 miles east of the Lesser Antilles, heading westward at 12 mph. Most indications are that Danny should continue on a general west to west-northwest track for the next few days while steadily strengthening. Danny could become a hurricane later this week, and could start to threaten the Lesser Antilles by late this weekend or early next week. There is still a great amount of uncertainty in the track and intensity forecast, however, so residents of the islands in the eastern and northeastern Caribbean should keep a close eye on the storm for the next several days.

Forecast track for Tropical Storm Danny as of 11am Wednesday.

While tropical systems often produce wind damage and coastal flooding, there is one aspect of this storm that could actually be good news for parts of the Caribbean – heavy rainfall. With the tropics remaining quiet this year, the lack of thunderstorm activity has resulted in a severe drought across portions of Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands. In St. Croix, USVI, only 7.31 inches of rain has fallen since January 1, which is 11.38 inches below normal. San Juan, PR has only received 20.73 inches of rain in 2015, which is 10.34 inches below normal. Too much rain in a short period of time will result in flooding, even with the ongoing drought, but residents of the region will likely take every drop they can get right now.

Current drought conditions across Puerto Rico and the US Virgin Islands.

Meanwhile, in the Central Pacific Ocean, a tropical disturbance is gaining strength about 900 miles southeast of Hawaii. Many of the forecast models are indicating that this system should continue to strengthen, becoming a tropical

Model forecast tracks for the tropical disturbance southeast of Hawaii.

depression in the next day or two, then a tropical storm, and possibly a hurricane towards the end of the week. A track toward the northwest, in the general direction of the Big Island of Hawaii is expected. The system could impact Hawaii with gusty winds and heavy rain by the upcoming weekend.

While the Atlantic has been quiet, the Western Pacific has bee very active so far. Currently there are two large storm systems being monitored. Super Typhoon Atsani has top winds near 160 mph and is passing northeast of the Northern Mariana Islands. It will likely maintain its current strength for the next day or so before starting to weaken as it turns north and then northeast, passing out to sea well south and east of Japan.

Typhoon Goni could be a problem for parts of East and Southeast Asia. Goni currently has top winds near 130 mph and should strengthen a bit more. The current forecast has it near maximum intensity of 145 mph as it nears the northeastern tip of the Philippines. Once there, it should make a sharp turn towards the north, passing just east of Taiwan as it starts to weaken, then it may take aim at southwestern Japan.

The peak of hurricane season in the Atlantic and eastern Pacific is normally from late August into mid-to-late September. Even though it has been a fairly quiet season thus far in the Atlantic, it only takes one storm making landfall in a populated area to make it a bad season.

Much Needed Rainfall Heading for the Ohio Valley – But is it too much?

The remains of Tropical Storm Bill will move across the Ohio Valley and into the Mid-Atlantic states this weekend before finally moving offshore. The storm, combined with a cold front dropping down from the north will bring locally heavy rainfall to an area that needs it.

Despite heavy snow this past winter, much of the Northeast and Ohio Valley are experiencing a drought as we head into summer. Moderate drought conditions exist across southern portions of Indiana and Ohio, as well as northern Kentucky. Moderate drought conditions are also noted across much of central and southern New England and eastern New York.

Current Drought Conditions across the United States

While this weekend’s rains won’t be enough to bust the drought, they will certainly help, especially across the Ohio Valley, where 1 to 3 inches of rain is expected. Flood watches have been posted for much of the area. In the Northeast, rainfall totals of up to an inch are expected, which will certainly help, but the heaviest rain is likely to stay south of the region.

Tropical Storm Bill made landfall near Matagorda Island, Texas late Tuesday morning with maximum sustained winds near 60 mph. The winds quickly diminished once the storm moved inland, but a swath of heavy rain has resulted in widespread flooding from eastern and northern Texas across Oklahoma and into portions of Arkansas and Missouri over the past several days.

Rainfall totals associated with Tropical Storm Bill over the past 5 days:

Healdton, Oklahoma	12.53″
Montague, Texas	12.50″
Alice, Texas	9.03″
Peru, Indiana	6.72″
Corpus Christi, Texas	6.14″
Springfield, Missouri	5.50″
Belleville, Illinois	5.01″
Shreveport, Louisiana	4.79″
Fort Wayne, Indiana	4.53″
Oklahoma City, Oklahoma	2.64″
Houston, Texas	2.51″
Fort Worth, Texas	2.34″

A much drier weather pattern is shaping up for the Southern Plains, which will allow rivers swollen from the heavy rains of May and June to slowly recede over the next week. Seasonably hot weather will move back in with high temperatures in the 90s for much of the upcoming week.

Hurricane Drought Hits a Decade – How Much Longer Will It Continue?

On October 24, 2005, Hurricane Wilma, which at one point was the strongest storm ever recorded in the Atlantic Basin, made landfall near Goodland, Florida as a Category 3 hurricane with top winds near 120 mph. Wilma was the third hurricane and second major hurricane (Category 3 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson scale) to make landfall in Florida during 2005. The previous year, a total of 4 hurricanes (3 major hurricanes) made landfall in Florida. During the same two-year period, Major Hurricanes Katrina and Rita also slammed into Louisiana.

Major Hurricane Strikes 2004-05 — Major Hurricane Landfalls 2004-05. Image Courtesy of National Hurricane Center.

In the 10 years since Wilma’s landfall, no hurricanes have struck Florida, and no major hurricanes have struck the United States as a whole. This 10-year lull in major hurricane landfalls is unprecedented since hurricane record-keeping began in 1851. The longest lull on record before this was a 9-year lull between August, 1860 and September, 1869. For Florida, the 10-year drought smashed the previous record of 6 years, set between 1979 and 1985.

While some may argue that the lack of landfalls is a good thing, in many ways, it’s also bad. Reports have indicated that over a million people have moved to Florida since 2005, and the vast majority of those people have likely never experienced a hurricane, let alone a major hurricane. They may not know how to prepare for a storm that could leave them without power for a week or more. They may not know what a mandatory evacuation means or if they are in a mandatory evacuation zone. They may not know where the nearest shelter is. (For Hurricane Preparedness Tips, visit the National Hurricane Center’s Preparedness Page)

In the Northeast, the drought is even worse. While some may argue whether or not Sandy was a hurricane, it only gave New England and New York a glancing blow. The last hurricane to make landfall in New England was Hurricane Bob in 1991. The last hurricane to make landfall on Long Island was Gloria in 1985. Historically, this region gets hit by a hurricane once every 6 years, but it’s been a quarter of a century since the last one hit. That means that there is an entire generation that does not know what it means to experience a hurricane in this region. As with Florida, it’s a matter of when, not if, the next one will hit this region, and they are long overdue.

While most experts expect this to be a fairly inactive hurricane season, that does not mean the landfall drought will continue. By all accounts, 1992 was an inactive season with only 6 named storms, 4 of which became hurricanes. However, one of those hurricanes was Andrew – one of only 3 Category 5 Hurricanes ever to make landfall in the United States.