Winter Weather | Hometown Forecast Services

Heat in the East, Severe Weather in the Plains, Snow in the Rockies?

Much of the Spring has featured an upper-level trough of low pressure across the Northeast, but that will change this weekend.

Temperatures have been below normal across most of the Northeast since mid-April. Image provided by the Northeast Regional Climate Center.

A persistent trough of low pressure has kept temperatures below normal across the Northeast for much of the past several weeks, but a ridge of high pressure will build in this weekend, both at the surface and aloft, resulting in some much warmer weather. Temperatures will get well into the 70s and 80s this weekend, with some spots topping 90. A weak backdoor cold front will bring cooler weather to parts of New England Sunday night and Monday, with temperatures only in the 60s and lower 70s, especially near the coastline, but inland areas, especially outside of New England, should get well into the 80s and lower 90s.

A ridge of high pressure will build into the East over the next few days. Loop provided by Tropical Tidbits.

The warmest weather is expected Tuesday and Wednesday with high pressure anchored offshore. Southwest winds will bring warm and increasingly humid air to much of the East Coast, with high temperatures well into the 80s and 90s, likely setting records in many locations along the Interstate-95 corridor. Anyone heading to the beach for relief should remember that the water is still relatively cold as it is early in the season. Water temperatures are only in the 40s and 50s off the coast of New England, and 50s and 60s off the Mid-Atlantic coastline. A strong cold front will bring an end to the heat later Wednesday, possibly with some strong to severe thunderstorms accompanying that front.

Record highs are possibly in many locations in the Northeast Monday through Wednesday. Image provided by Weathermodels.com

While areas in the East Coast are looking at the potential for severe weather on Wednesday, many spots in the Plains states and Midwest could see several waves of severe weather over the next few days.

A multi-day severe weather event is likely across the nation’s mid-section. Image provided by Pivotal Weather.

Low pressure developing in the southwestern Plains states will only slowly move northeastward over the next few days. Strong to severe thunderstorms are likely this afternoon and evening from the Central Plains eastward into parts of the Mississippi and Ohio Valleys. Areas from eastern Colorado across Kansas and Nebraska and into Iowa are under the gun today, with some of the stronger storms likely producing damaging winds, large hail, heavy downpours, and tornadoes. As the system slowly moves out of the Plains states and toward the Upper Mississippi Valley on Sunday, the focus of severe weather will shift into parts of the Northern and Central Plains and Upper Midwest, especially from Nebraska into Iowa and parts of Minnesota. Once again, storms may produce strong winds, large hail, heavy downpours, and tornadoes.

The Central Plains will be under the gun for multiple rounds of severe weather over the next few days. Images provided by the Storm Prediction Center.

By Monday, as the system moves into the Great Lakes and drags a strong cold front behind it across the Plains states, a very active day is expected from northern Texas northeastward to Michigan. Widespread strong to severe thunderstorms are likely, but the area from northern Oklahoma to Iowa is where the strongest storms are expected, with many supercells producing large hail, damaging winds, and numerous tornadoes. As the front moves eastward the threat for severe weather on Tuesday will shift to parts of the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley, as well as the southern Plains, and then potentially to parts of the East Coast and Tennessee Valley on Wednesday.

Drought conditions continue across a large portion of the nation. Image provided by the National Drought Mitigation Center.

There is a bit of a silver lining to this, as widespread rainfall, some of it heavy, is likely across a large portion of the nation’s mid-section. Much of this region, especially the Central and Southern Plains, is in the middle of a significant drought, so any rain is beneficial, and will help put a dent in the drought, especially as the growing season gets underway.

Another late-season snowstorm is possible across parts of the Intermountain West and the Rockies late this weekend and early next week. Image provided by WeatherBell.

Behind the cold front, much colder air will settle into the Plains states and the Rockies. Some record lows are possible both Monday and Tuesday morning as temperatures drop into the 20s and 30s. At the same time, another low pressure system will be moving across the Great Basin, and as it encounters the colder airmass, snow is expected across the mountains, with much-needed rain at the lower elevations. Winter Storm Watches have already been issued for parts of Wyoming for late Sunday and Monday, and more are likely to be issued for parts of the region, including Utah and Colorado, later today. Some of the mountains could pick up as much as 1-2 feet of snow, possibly even more in spots. Some flakes could mix in with the rain in the Denver area Monday and Monday night, with accumulations likely in the foothills west of the city. After a fairly dry winter, the snow is welcome, as it will help with spring runoff.

Significant Winter Storm and Arctic Blast to Impact Much of the Nation

As an arctic airmass pours into the eastern two thirds of the nation, a developing low pressure system will bring wintry weather to many areas that are unaccustomed to it.

A variety of winter storm watches, warnings and advisories are in effect from the Rockies to the East Coast. Image provided by Pivotal Weather.

The overall weather pattern so far this winter has been dominated by a trough of low pressure centered over the Great Lakes with ridging taking place across either the Southeastern U.S. or the Rockies. The eastern troughs have expanded and contracted as the polar vortex has expanded and contracted this winter season. This has led to colder than normal temperatures from the Great Lakes to the Northeast since the middle of November, although there was a brief thaw back in early January. In addition, this pattern has resulted in weather systems generally moving into the region from the west or northwest. This is has led to some fairly frequent snow events through the winter but none of them have had much moisture to work with, so snowfall has generally been on the light side, except for lake-effect events. This has been due to the storms originating in areas with not a lot of moisture limiting the potential snowfall from them.

Temperatures have been below normal across the Great Lakes and Northeast since mid-November. Image provided by WeatherBell.

The pattern is in the midst of a change as there’s been a major expansion of the polar vortex over the last week. This is going to result in a deep trough developing over the eastern half of the country over the next few weeks. The pattern is shifting to one where colder airmasses will be moving into the region on a regular basis through early February. These airmasses will also be settling further south on a more regular basis over the next couple of weeks. In addition, storm systems will start to develop along the arctic boundary further south in the country which will allow these potential storms to tap into moisture from the Gulf of Mexico. In laymen’s terms, the pattern is becoming much more dynamic and our exposure to heavier snowfalls is increasing quite a bit over the next 2-3 weeks, especially in comparison to what we’ve seen so far this winter.

A storm system will result in significant impacts from Texas and the Southern Plains to the East Coat. Image provided by the Weather Prediction Center.

That starts over the next few days as arctic air pours into the nation while a low pressure system moving out of the Southwest encounters that colder air. It will draw moisture northward from the Gulf, and as it encounters that colder air at the surface, it will fall as freezing rain in a large swath from parts of Texas and the Southern Plains across the Tennessee Valley and into parts of the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic states. Some significant ice accretions are possible from parts of northeastern Texas and southern Oklahoma across Arkansas, northern Mississippi, Tennessee, and Kentucky, into the Carolinas and Virginia, beginning later Friday in western parts of this region, late Saturday as you head toward the Carolinas. Just to the north of these areas, where the cold air is a little deeper, some significant sleet is possible, especially in parts of Oklahoma and Arkansas. This will be a long duration storm, with precipitation likely not ending until Sunday for much of this region. This will likely cause widespread travel disruptions and power outages, with extended recovery times expected.

The system will produce a variety of weather as it makes its way across the nation. Loop provided by WeatherBell.

Farther north, heavy snow will be widespread north of the track of the low pressure system from the Southern Plains to the Ohio Valley. Many locations could pick up a foot or more of snow. Across the eastern Great Lakes, the snow will be enhanced by lake-effect snow as the arctic air moves in. Areas downwind of Lake Ontario could see totals upwards of 2-3 feet.

Heavy snow is likely from the Southern Plains to the Midwest and parts of the Northeast. Image provided by Pivotal Weather.

As the system moves to the East Coast, things become a little more complicated. The storm will strengthen, but the exact track it takes has a big impact on what type of precipitation falls, and how much accumulates. Right now, it looks like snow will change to sleet and freezing rain Saturday night and early Sunday across much of Virginia and the Delmarva Peninsula, including the Washington and Baltimore areas, with plain rain right along the coast. This will keep snow accumulations significantly lower. The changeover should get into the Philadelphia area and parts of New Jersey as well Sunday evening, which would result in lower accumulations. To the north, moderate to heavy snow is expected in parts of New York and central and southern New England, but again, a track farther north could bring sleet and/or rain into parts of Long Island and southern New England, possibly into New York City as well. Up here, snow won’t even begin in New York until daybreak Sunday, and in parts of southern New England until later Sunday afternoon or evening. Precipitation won’t end in these areas until sometime on Monday, possibly Monday night or early Tuesday in eastern New England. Once again, in places where precipitation falls as all snow, many areas will pick up a foot or more.

Well below normal temperatures will continue east of the Rockies for the next week or more. Loop provided by Weathermodels.com

Another surge of arctic air will settle in behind this storm across parts of the nation’s mid-section by the end of the weekend, and into the East early next week. As mentioned above, this pattern is likely to remain in place through the rest of January and into at least early February.

Heat, Humidity, and a Snowstorm?

Hot and humid conditions are expected across the eastern half of the nation as we go through the first weekend of summer.

A ridge of high pressure brings heat and humidity to the eastern half of the nation over the next few days. Loop provided by Pivotal Weather.

A large ridge of high pressure centered over the Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys Saturday morning will slowly move eastward over the next few days, resulting in hot and humid conditions for a large portion of the nation. The heat and humidity are focused on the Plains States and Mississippi Valley to start the weekend with Heat Advisories and Extreme Heat Warnings in place from the Northern and Central Plains into the Mississippi Valley and the Midwest. High temperatures will reach the 90s in much of this region, with highs topping 100 in parts of the Northern and Central Plains, possibly setting records in a few spots. With dewpoints in the upper 60s and 70s, the heat index will reach 100 to as high as 110 in much of the region. The heat will continue into Sunday, with widespread highs in the 90s and lower 100s expected once again and heat indices in excess of 100, but an approaching cold front will produce showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening, some of which could be strong to severe, bringing relief to the region.

The heat index will top 100 across much of the nation’s mid-section Saturday afternoon. Image provided by WeatherBell.

The heat and humidity will shift into the Great Lakes and Northeast on Sunday, with record highs expected in many areas as temperatures rise well into the 90s. Dewpoints will be climbing into the 60s and 70s, resulting in heat indices near or over 100. Heat Advisories and Extreme Heat Watches and Warnings have been issued for much of this region. As we head into the start of the new week, the focus of the heat will shift once again to the heavily-populated Interstate 95 corridor along the East Coast. High temperatures in the upper 90s to possibly lower 100s are expected on Monday in this area likely setting records in dozens of locations, more likely on Tuesday. When the humidity is factored in, the heat index will reach 105 to 110 degrees in many areas. Little relief is expected at night, as nighttime lows only drop into the 70s, with some of the urban areas possibly staying above 80. A backdoor cold front may bring some relief to parts of New England, possibly as far south as the New York City area on Wednesday, but heat and humidity will continue across the Mid-Atlantic states.

Temperatures could approach 100 across much of the Northeast on Tuesday. Image provided by Weathermodels.com

While heat is making headlines across the eastern half of the nation, in the Northern Rockies, a late-season winter storm is moving in. A storm system moving in will bring strong winds and heavy precipitation to the region today and into Sunday. Sustained winds of 30-40 mph with gusts in excess of 60 mph are expected in some areas. Across the higher elevations of western Montana and eastern Idaho snow levels have fallen as low as 5000 feet. Above that level, snowfall totals of 4-8 inches are expected by Sunday morning, with totals of 10-20 inches expected once you get above 6000 feet. Winter Storm Warnings and Winter Weather Advisories have been issued for much of this region. The chilly weather won’t last long, as temperatures return to near to above normal levels across the region by Tuesday.

Heavy snow is expected across the higher elevations of Montana and Idaho this weekend. Image provided by Weathermodels.com

The Week Ahead: November 14-20, 2022

Winter will finally make an appearance across a large portion of the nation during the upcoming week.

Low pressure moving across the Southwest will have a large impact on a good portion of the nation this week. Image provided by NOAA.

Low pressure will move out of the Southwest and across the Southern Plains today, before heading across the Deep South and then off the Mid-Atlantic coast by midweek. To the south, it will produce showers and thunderstorms across parts of Texas and eventually the Gulf Coast and the Southeast over the next few days. Some strong storms are possible, but a severe weather outbreak is not expected. The bigger story will be what takes place north of the system. Some light snow or a wintry mix will move across the Plains states today and into the Mississippi Valley tonight and Tuesday. While the snow won’t be heavy, a few inches could accumulate in some spots, which will be the first accumulating snow of the season for some locations.

Some locally heavy rain is possible along the Gulf Coast over the next few days. Image provided by Weathermodels.com

By later Tuesday, as the low moves off the Mid-Atlantic coast, a second, weaker low will also move across the Midwest, producing some light snow across this region, with rain across the Tennessee Valley. As both of these lows head eastward, precipitation will move into the Northeast. Precipitation may start as a wintry mix early Wednesday across the northern and western suburbs of New York and Boston, but for the cities of the I-95 corridor, this will be mostly a rainstorm. Farther inland, from central Pennsylvania into much of Upstate New York, and Northern New England, several inches of snow could accumulate before any potential changeover to rain. As the storm intensifies off the East Coast, heavier snow is possible in parts of northern and eastern Maine and into Atlantic Canada.

A swath of light to moderate snow is expected from the Southern Plains to the Northeast over the next few days. Image provided by WeatherBell.

While temperatures are currently below normal across most of the nation, even colder air will spill southward from Canada behind this storm. By the end of the week, some record lows are possible, especially in parts of the Plains States and Northern Rockies, where some sub-zero temperatures are possible. By the end of the week, below normal readings are likely across most of the nation except for the immediate West Coast, and parts of southern Florida. From the Appalachians westward to the Rockies, temperatures will be 15 to 30 degrees below normal for the end of the week and into next weekend.

Very cold air will invade much of the nation late this week. Image provided by Weathermodels.com.

As that cold air pours over the Great Lakes, some lake-effect snow is expected. Locations downwind of Lakes Superior and Michigan could see several inches of snow by mid-week, similar to what they had over the weekend. However, it’s the areas downwind of Lakes Erie and Ontario that could see some exceptionally heavy amounts. Totals could exceed a foot from Buffalo to Cleveland, with the location of the heaviest snowfall obviously dependent on the wind direction, but its the area east of Lake Ontario, specifically the Tug Hill Plateau of northern New York that could see the heaviest amounts.

Parts of northern and western New York could see some hefty snow totals later this week. Images provided by Pivotal Weather.

The Week Ahead: November 7-13, 2022

A very active week is expected across the nation this week, with everything from hurricanes to blizzards, and record highs to record lows expected.

The week is starting out active and will remain that way for the next several days. Image provided by NOAA.

Low pressure is moving into the Pacific Northwest this morning, with rain strong winds, and mountain snow expected. As this storm spreads inland, heavy rain will spread across most of the West, including all of California, with heavy snow across the higher elevations and through the Great Basin and into the Rockies. Winter Weather Advisories, Winter Storm Warnings, and High Wind Warnings are in effect for many locations already. Rainfall totals of 1-2 inches and locally heavier will be welcomed across California, helping to put a dent into the drought and aiding efforts to extinguish the many wildfires still burning across the West. Across the mountains, snowfall totals of 1-2 feet and locally heavier are expected in parts of the Cascades and Sierra Nevada, with up to a foot possible across the mountains of the Interior Northwest and Northern Rockies.

Heavy rain is expected across most of California over the next few days. Image provided by WeatherBell.

By Thursday, the system will move into the Plains and toward the Great Lakes. Ahead of the storm, record high temperatures are possible once again, with the threat of some severe weather in the Mississippi Valley. However, it’s across the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest where impact will be the greatest. The combination of strong winds, gusting to 40-50 mph, and heavy snow, possibly as much as 8-16 inches across parts of the Dakotas and northern Minnesota as well as the southern Canadian Prairies, will result in blizzard conditions at times later Thursday into Friday.

The models all have heavy snow forecast for the Dakotas and northern Minnesota, but differ on the amounts and placement. Images provided by Pivotal Weather.

Behind the storm, especially with fresh snowcover, some of the coldest air so far this fall will pour into the Rockies and Northern Plains with high temperatures for the end of the week and the weekend only in the teens and 20s, and some subzero low temperatures likely. As that storm continues into southeastern Canada, it will drag a cold front across the eastern third of the nation for the end of the week. By the time it reaches the East Coast late Saturday, nearly the entire nation will experience temperatures that are below normal for mid-November, a rather big change from what the eastern half of the nation has experiences for the past couple of weeks.

By Sunday, temperatures will be below normal across virtually the entire Lower 48. Image provided by Weathermodels.com

While all this is going on, we also need to pay attention to the tropics. Hurricane Season doesn’t officially end until November 30, and we’re keeping an eye on two separate areas at this time. The first is centered a few hundred miles east of Bermuda. As it drifts around over marginally warm waters, it could become a subtropical or tropical storm over the next day or two. It likely won’t last that long, as a strong cold front moving off the East Coast today will absorb this system by midweek and send it out over the colder waters of the North Atlantic.

The models are unanimous that the system east of Bermuda will not be a threat to land this week. Image provided by Tropical Tidbits.

The second area is a much bigger concern. A low pressure area few hundred miles north of Puerto Rico has been producing heavy rain across Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands for the past few days, with rainfall totals of 5-10 inches producing flooding in some locations. The system is expected to move northwestward while slowly organizing, and could become a tropical depression or storm over the next few days. Eventually, it will turn toward the west, passing close to or over the northern Bahamas, then heading toward the East Coast of Florida. Heavy rain, strong winds, and rough surf are likely across much of Florida as the system draws closer at mid-week. Some models have the storm close to hurricane strength before landfall somewhere across east-central Florida. After landfall, the mostly likely scenario is a turn toward the north and eventually northeast as a strong trough of low pressure moves into the Eastern US.

Ensemble forecasts for the track of a disturbance north of Puerto Rico. Image provided by Tomer Burg.

Once the system makes the turn, it will likely move back into the Atlantic and up the East Coast. While it will lose its characteristics, it will still produce heavy rain, gusty winds, and rough seas from the Carolinas northward to New England. Given its tropical origins, some of the rain could be especially heavy near the coast, with widespread totals of 2-4 inches possible. The strong cold front marching eastward will help kick the system out to sea later Saturday. If it does so early enough, it could result in less rain and wind across parts of New England.

The Week Ahead: April 11-17, 2022

Stop us if you’ve heard this before, but we’ve got a multi-day severe weather outlook to start the upcoming week.

A couple of storm systems will impact the nation this week. Image provided by NOAA.

A low pressure system will move across the Southern Plains states today, producing showers and thunderstorms. Some of the storms may become strong to severe from parts of central Texas northeastward into the Middle Mississippi Valley. The main threat with these storms will be large hail, but some storms may also produce strong winds, heavy downpours, and tornadoes. This is just the start of what is to come.

Yet another multi-day severe weather outbreak is likely to start the week. Image provided by Pivotal Weather.

A stronger storm will develop across the central Rockies on Tuesday, heading toward the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest on Wednesday. Strong to severe thunderstorms are expected across a very large area as warm, humid air flows northward from the Gulf of Mexico ahead of the storm and much colder air settles southward from Canada behind it. That airmass may produce some record highs across southern Texas during Tuesday and Wednesday, with temperatures in the upper 90s and lower 100s across the Rio Grande Valley.

Triple-digit highs may set a few records in south Texas on Tuesday. Image provided by Weathermodels.com

On Tuesday the severe weather threat exists from eastern Texas and the eastern Plains States into much of the Mississippi Valley. By Thursday, the threat will shift eastward slightly, continuing across the Mississippi Valley, and spread into parts of the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. Many storms will produce large hail, damaging winds, torrential downpours, and tornadoes. The threat will shift into the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic states by Thursday, but on a more limited basis.

To the north, as the system moves into Northern Plains later Tuesday, snow will develop in parts of the Dakotas and Minnesota as well as south-central Canada. Snow will become heavy and winds will increase, resulting in blizzard conditions across parts of the region, The system will slow down, with snow and gusty winds continuing through the day on Wednesday and possibly into early Thursday. Snowfall totals of 1-2 feet are possible in parts of the region, but wind gusts of up to 50 mph will create significant blowing and drifting snow.

The potential exists for significant snow across the Northern Plains this week. Image provided by WeatherBell.

Behind the storm, a much colder airmass will settle into Rockies and Plains states, Temperatures will be as much as 15 to 30 degrees below normal for Wednesday and Thursday. Some record lows are possible in parts of the Northern Rockies and Northern Plains during the latter half of the week as temperatures drop into the single numbers and teens across a large area.

Heavy rain is expected across parts of the Northwest and Northern California this week. Image provided by Weathermodels.com

Out West, a series of low pressure systems will bring heavy rain and mountain snow to parts of the Pacific Northwest and Northern California this week. The first system moves in today and will be the strongest one, and will eventually become the system mentioned above that produces severe weather and blizzard conditions across the nation’s mid-section. A second system follows for Tuesday into early Wednesday, followed by a third one on Thursday. Rainfall totals of 1-3 inches and locally heavier are possible, especially near the coast from southern Washington into northern California. Heavy snow is likely across the Cascades and Sierra Nevada, as well as the coastal ranges. Many places could pick up anywhere from 1-3 feet of snow, with parts of the Cascades likely receiving even more than 3 feet. Across the Inland northwest, many places could see more than a foot of snow as the system pushes inland. It’s been a very dry winter for the most part across the West, so the rain and snow will be welcome news across the region as the dry season is quickly approaching.

The Week Ahead: April 4-10, 2022

Another multi-day severe weather outbreak is expected across the southern tier of states this week thanks to a pair of storm systems.

Low pressure moving into the Southern Plains will help produce severe weather over the next few days. Image provided by NOAA.

Low pressure will move out of the Plains states and into the Mississippi Valley today. Ahead of the system, another round of strong to severe thunderstorms is expected from the southern Plains and Texas into the Lower Mississippi Valley. Many of the storms will produce large hail, damaging winds, heavy downpours and tornadoes. As the system heads eastward, the severe weather threat will shift to the Gulf Coast and the Southeast on Tuesday. While the activity may not be as strong or as widespread, severe storms are still expected across much of the region. That system will move off the East Coast late Tuesday, bringing some rain, possibly heavy, to parts of the Mid-Atlantic states and into the Northeast.

Severe weather is expected across the southern tier of states over the next several days. Image provided by Pivotal Weather.

Another storm quickly follows on Wednesday, with the threat of severe weather returning to the Tennessee Valley and Deep South. Once again, some of the storms may produce damaging winds, hail, heavy downpours, and tornadoes. This threat will shift into the Mid-Atlantic states by Thursday. Another round of heavy rain is also likely from the Mid-Atlantic into the Northeast on Thursday, which could lead to some localized flooding. Parts of the region have been somewhat dry recently, with drought conditions beginning to show up in some areas, so the rain will be good news.

Drought conditions are beginning to show up across parts of the Northeast. Image provided by the National Drought Mitigation Center.

While the rain is good news for the developing drought, for some places in the Northeast, the rain will not be a welcome sight on Thursday, as it is Opening Day for Major League Baseball in 9 cities across the nation. The rain will threat to wipe out at least two of those games, when the Boston Red Sox visit the New York Yankees, and Washington Nationals host the New York Mets. At the very least, significant rain delays are possible. Rain could also cause some delays in Chicago, where the Cubs open up against the Milwaukee Brewers.

The baseball season opens a little later than normal this coming Thursday. Image provided by MLB.com

Meanwhile, in the Northern Plains and the Upper Midwest, a slow-moving storm system, both at the surface and aloft, will take its time crossing the region later this week. Some occasional rain showers are likely, eventually changing over to snow as colder air settles in. Several inches of snowfall accumulation possible from the Dakotas into the northern Great Lakes, spread out over several days, with some locations possible seeing as much as 8-12 inches of snow by the time everything winds down at the end of the week.

Accumulation snow is expected from the Dakotas into the Great Lakes this week. Image provided by WeatherBell.

The Week Ahead: March 28 – April 3, 2022

A developing storm system will impact much of the nation over the next few days with a variety of weather.

Low pressure off the West Coast will be the main weather story for the next few days. Image provided by NOAA.

Low pressure will move into the West Coast today, bringing some much needed heavy rain and mountain snow to California today, spreading into the Southwest and Great Basin tonight, and then the Rocky Mountains on Tuesday. Rainfall totals of up to an inch will be common, with 1-2 inches or more likely near the coast of central and southern California. Snowfall totals of 1-2 feet are expected in the Sierra Nevada and the mountains of southern California. Across the higher elevations of the Intermountain West and the Rockies. many locations will receive 6-12 inches of fresh snow.

Heavy rain is likely across central and southern California. Image provided by Weathermodels.com

As the storm moves into the Plains states on Tuesday, it will begin to strengthen, drawing warm and humid air northward from the Gulf of Mexico. This will help to trigger strong to severe thunderstorms on Tuesday from the Central Plains into Texas. Some of the storms may produce large hail, damaging winds, and possibly some tornadoes. As the system heads toward the Great Lakes on Wednesday, the threat for severe weather will shift into the Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys, eventually reaching the Mid-Atlantic states and the Carolinas on Thursday as the storm drags a strong cold front toward the East Coast.

The severe weather threat will shift from the Plains on Tuesday to the East Coast by Thursday. Image provided by Pivotal Weather.

In addition to the severe weather, heavy rain is likely from the Gulf Coast to the Great Lakes ahead of the storm, with many locations seeing 1-2 inches of rain, possibly producing some flooding in some areas. To the north of the system, some heavy snow is expected in parts of the Upper Midwest. Parts of Minnesota, Wisconsin, and the Upper Peninsula of Michigan may be digging out from 6-12 inches of snow by Friday morning.

The storm may drop moderate to heavy snow on parts of the Upper Midwest. Image provided by WeatherBell.

Before the storm reaches the East Coast, a rather chilly airmass will be in place across the Northeast to start the week. Temperatures will be 15-25 degrees below normal today, with high temperatures only in the 20s and 30s north of the Mason-Dixon line. Record low high temperatures are possible in dozens locations today. Temperatures will drop into the teens and 20s tonight, with record lows possible Tuesday morning in many spots. Temperatures will start to moderate a bit on Tuesday as high pressure moves offshore. Even milder air will move in for Wednesday and Thursday as a warm front extending from the previously mentioned storm system moves across the region. By Thursday afternoon, much of the region east of the Appalachians will have temperatures that are 5-15 degrees above normal for the first day of April. A few record highs are possible, especially in the Southeast and Florida, where temperatures should be well into the 80s or even lower 90s.

Record low high temperatures are expected across the Northeast today. Image provided by WeatherBell.

The Week Ahead: March 7-13, 2022

A rather active week is expected, especially across the eastern two-thirds of the nation.

A wavy frontal system is draped across the nation to start the week. Image provided by NOAA.

Low pressure will move across the Ohio Valley and into the Northeast today, providing a variety of weather for the eastern half of the nation. The most impactful weather will be strong to severe thunderstorms, especially from the Deep South across the Tennessee Valley and into the Appalachians. Some of the storms may produce damaging winds, heavy downpours, and possibly tornadoes. In addition to the severe weather, heavy rain is expected across the Ohio Valley. Widespread rainfall totals of 1-2 inches and locally heavier are expected, resulting in Flood Watches being issued for much of the region.

Severe weather is possible today from the Tennessee Valley into the Appalachians. Image provided by the Storm Prediction Center,

Ahead of the storm, unseasonably warm weather will remain in place today from the Gulf Coast into the Mid-Atlantic states and parts of the Northeast. High temperatures should reach 80 or higher from Washington, D.C. southward, with 70s into the Mid-Atlantic states. Dozens of record highs are expected to be set once again.

Dozens of record highs are likely across the East and South today. Image provided by Weathermodels.com.

Later this week, another low pressure system is expected to develop across the West. It will bring a snowstorm to parts of the Rocky Mountains and into the Plains states. Snowfall totals of 4-8 inches will be widespread, with many locations, especially at the higher elevations, possibly seeing more than a foot. Snowfall has been below normal across the region this year, and parts of the region rely on the snowmelt for water in the spring/summer, so any snow that falls now is welcome.

Moderate to heavy snow may fall across the Rockies later this weekend. Image provided by WeatherBell.

Once it moves away from the Rockies, that system could become a rather potent storm system as it heads eastward. Ahead of the system, heavy rain and possibly more severe weather may impact parts of the Gulf Coast, Deep South, and Southeast towards the end of the week and into the weekend, with heavy snow possible north and west of the system from the Plains states into the Great Lakes and parts of the Northeast. There are some indications that it could become rather strong as it moves into the Northeast, with the potential for strong winds across much of the East Coast. This will be something to keep an eye on later this week.

The Week Ahead: February 21-27, 2022

A rather active pattern is expected across the nation during the upcoming week.

The surface analysis doesn’t look busy to start the week, but the pattern will be quite active. Image provided by NOAA.

Low pressure will move into the southern Plains today, heading toward the Great Lakes on Tuesday, then up the St. Lawrence Valley Tuesday night, producing a variety of weather across the eastern two thirds of the nation. As it draws warm and humid air northward from the Gulf of Mexico, it will produce some heavy rain and thunderstorms, some of which could be strong to severe, across parts of southern Plains and Mississippi Valley today and tonight, with the heavy rain and severe weather threat shifting into Deep South and Tennessee Valley on Tuesday. Many areas could see 1-2 inches of rain, with heavier amounts possible, which could lead to flooding in some areas. Unseasonably mild weather is also likely ahead of the storm, with some record highs possible in the Mississippi Valley on Tuesday and parts of the Southeast on Wednesday. A few record highs are also possible in the Northeast during Tuesday and Wednesday and warmer air surges northward ahead of the system.

Severe weather is possible from the Southern Plains into the Mississippi Valley on Monday. Image provided by the Storm Prediction Center

To the north, the storm will produce heavy snow and gusty winds, resulting in near-blizzard conditions at times from the Northern Plains into the Great Lakes over the next couple of days. Snowfall totals of 5-10 inches are possible in parts of the Dakotas today into Tuesday, but in the Great Lakes, many areas could see a foot or more. Once the snow ends, arctic air will settle into the region. Temperatures will drop below zero each night this week across most of the Northern and Central Plains and the Upper Midwest, with record lows possible in many locations. Temperatures will be 20 to 40 degrees below normal through Wednesday before some moderation begins.

Very cold air settles into the Plains States and Midwest over the next several days while warm air moves into parts of the East and South. Loop provided by Pivotal Weather.

Later in the week, we’ll do it all over again. Low pressure will move out of the Southern Plains and toward the Ohio Valley on Thursday, before redeveloping off the Mid-Atlantic coastline. Ahead of the storm, some heavy rain and thunderstorms are likely from the Lower Mississippi Valley into the Deep South and the Mid-Atlantic states, with more record highs possible across parts of the Southeast. The difference this time is with a track farther to the south compared to the early-week storm, the threat for wintry weather will increase from the Ohio Valley into the Northeast. The exact track will determine what areas get all snow and what areas see a mix of snow, sleet, and/or freezing rain, but areas that remain all snow have the potential for 6 or more inches of accumulation.