Category: General Weather

Hurricane Lala brought destruction to Hawaii, and in its wake, it left downed trees, along with landslides and mudslides that left towns and villages buried. Recovery efforts from Hurricane Lala are well underway, but the next tropical storm is already on the horizon.

The storm, currently Tropical Depression TWO-C, is forecasted to remain relatively weak while staying south of the islands through the weekend, though that doesn’t mean that it won’t have significant impacts. After Lala, Hawaii’s soils are thoroughly saturated, and another significant storm could cause flooding and land or mudslides that will make current recovery efforts even more difficult. While Hawaii is no stranger to tropical impacts, having 2 potentially named systems back to back is unusual.

Though the system is expected to stay to the south, Hawaii’s Big Island could see up to a foot of rain as the storm approaches, especially on the windward side of the island where slopes are steeper. Rainfall from Lala has already made these slopes unstable, and more rainfall could destabilize them, causing more mudslides or landslides and making recovery after Lala more difficult.

With TWO C being forecasted on the weaker side, its path and impact could change significantly as the weekend progresses. Current conditions and forecasts indicate that it could still die out before reaching the Islands, but until that happens, it is safe to assume impact will occur.

A persistent upper level high will keep the west sweltering this weekend, while the south-central and eastern US sees cooler temps and scattered showers.

Starting on Saturday, extreme heat warnings and heat advisories will persist through much of the Western US as an upper level high pressure persists. Heat indices will be in the 90s and 100s across the southwestern US and the Central Valley in California, with temperatures in the 100s and 110s, with the Mojave Desert potentially reaching the 120s. Overnight lows will be in the 60s and 70s in Central and Northern California, while only reaching the 80s in Southern California, providing little relief. Northern coastal cities won’t get as hot, looking to only reach the upper 60s during the day, and lower 50s overnight, though offshore winds will keep the relative humidity in the upper 60s and 70%. As with any extreme heat, limit outdoor activity when possible, and drink lots of fluids to keep hydrated.

The main hazard in the northwest will be air quality and fire weather through Saturday. With fires already active and very little air movement in the region, smoke can build up to unsafe levels for most people. Additionally, dry conditions inland combined with temperatures in the 80s and 90s will allow for even the smallest fire to quickly expand.

The central US will also experience highs in the 90s and 100s, though no heat advisories have been issued. Dew points will generally be in the 40s to 60s, creating dry conditions, and as such no rain is expected for much of the north-central US. New Mexico and the Texas panhandle could see a light shower or two, but accumulation should remain below half an inch. The Ohio Valley through to the Northeast could see scattered showers, though totals shouldn’t be more than half an inch. Highs in the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic will be around the 80s and 90s.

In the southeast, Highs will remain consistent in the 80s and 90s. As an offshore convective system makes its way towards the coast, Coastal Eastern Florida, Georgia, and South Carolina could see precipitation totals from isolated showers around .75 inches with localized totals of 1+ inches.

Sunday will see some relief from the heat in the Northwest as high temperatures dip into the 80s and 90s, and lows in the 50s and 60s. Air Quality advisories will persist through Sunday as surface winds remain low, while upper level winds carry lofted smoke downwind. Heat advisories and warnings will remain active in the southwest, with highs in the 90s and 100s, with the Mojave reaching 110+.

The Northern Central Plains could see some severe weather on Sunday as a system quickly moves through the central and northern plains into the southern Great Lakes. The primary risk will be localized heavy rain, with hail and wind also possible, though the precise timing and location of the system is still uncertain. Highs in this region should remain in the mid 70s to low 80s across the region. The Eastern US overall will see highs continue to be in the 80s and 90s. Scattered showers are possible in the southwest into the south-central, with accumulations of around a third of an inch, with localized higher amounts possible along the Gulf.

Through the rest of the week, relief from the heat is in sight for the southwest as the upper-level ridge weakens, though the southwest will now be under its own, bringing highs into the 90s and 100s. The northern Great Plains and Northeast could get the first taste of fall as overnight lows drop into the 40s and 50s, though highs will remain in the 70s and 80s.

As the Atlantic hurricane season moves into its typical peak season from August to November, one key factor is preventing a prime region of formation from looking likely to see much development: a very strong El Niño that is expected to persist through early spring.

El Niño describes a warming of oceanic surface temperatures in the eastern Pacific along the equator. Typically detected as underwater movement below the ocean surface some time before it appears, it’s not officially declared until 3 months of warming have occurred, and it drastically changes how atmospheric currents behave. In El Niño, the primary upward motion in the Pacific occurs over the eastern Pacific, where El Niño is located. As a result, the primary downdraft occurs over the Eastern Atlantic Ocean.

Additionally, El Niño strengthens the jet stream, keeping it southward and positioned over the Atlantic and the Gulf. As a result, wind shear over the Atlantic prevents most storm formation in the Gulf and the equatorial Atlantic, especially in later months.

This combination of factors creates atmospheric conditions that are incredibly unfavorable for tropical storms to form in the Gulf and Atlantic, especially at this time of year, where the most favorable zone is normally just north of South America and just east of the Caribbean. However, storms can still form off the East Coast of the United States. When they do, they typically take one of two paths. Out to sea, or moving north along the coast. Storm systems may still try to appear in the Atlantic and the Gulf, though most of them end up torn apart by the shear forces or never develop rotation, preventing them from becoming nothing more than a cluster of thunderstorms over the open sea that could arrive at the coast.

While wind shear may prevent major storm development, some systems do still break through. Systems such as these typically stay as clusters of thunderstorms rather than developing into tropical depressions or hurricanes. The real danger comes from storms that start to rotate, as these can develop into tropical storms or even hurricanes that then move along the coast or across Florida. One example of a hurricane that developed in this region before moving across Florida and into the Gulf is Hurricane Andrew in 1992. The season started slowly, as Andrew was not named until August 16, meandering in the central Atlantic before rapidly strengthening to Category 5 before making landfall.

Storm systems may still develop in the Atlantic, but none will get very strong as wind shear caps development. Loop provided by NOAA.

As for how much wind shear there is currently, and why there are no storm developments expected in the Atlantic anytime soon, wind shear values are similar to those of the 2015 season, with the current season currently running as the second strongest wind shear across the Atlantic.

While the Atlantic may be looking to remain calm for the foreseeable future, as proven many times over the years, it only takes one storm for it to become an impactful hurricane season.

As August begins, a persistent upper level ridge is looking to settle over the Western US, bringing extreme heat and fires as the explosion of vegetation through the summer dries out.

Rainfall is always welcome in warm, arid climates, as it provides needed relief from the temperature and assists in refilling reservoirs that might be in need of water – especially after a drought – and promotes explosive vegetation growth, mostly of small grasses and wildflowers. Following a drought, this rainfall also brings hazards of its own. More well known hazards are flooding and land or mudslides, but that rapid vegetation growth can become a big risk depending on how conditions change in the following weeks.

California (and other Western states) bases its precipitation on a slightly different scale than Eastern states, known as the Water Year, and it runs from October 1st to September 30th every year.  This water year, totals across the state are just below to around normal in the northern regions of the state, while central and southern portions have been near to well above average. Given that this year had record low snowpack development, the above average rainfall has maintained reservoir levels at around normal across the state, and promoted the growth of vegetation.

One location of note; Death Valley received 3.5 inches of rain this water year. This might not seem like much, but when you consider that the average yearly rainfall here is only 2.2 inches, that is 160% of the average rainfall, and it lead to a super-bloom of wildflowers. In fact, much of the area between the Mojave Desert and Los Angeles has reported above 120% of their yearly rainfall, causing impressive vegetation growth. Though this growth comes with a major risk as it dries out: Wildfires

Southwest US and California droughts are very closely tied to the ENSO cycle. In El Nino years, Southern California across into Texas see well above average precipitation. As an example, the 1982-83 El Nino brought rainfall totals to California that were 150 to 200% above normal compared to the 1990 to 2020 normals. As El Nino changed to La Nina the following year, California experienced a drought that saw three hundred thousand acres of land burned.

As we head into a very strong El Nino in the 2026 through 2027 fall and winter, California is likely to see at or above normal precipitation. The South Central US is already well above normal, and this could continue through winter.

It should be no surprise that Hawaii receives the highest average annual rainfall of all the states in the US, given that it’s a set of islands in the middle of the Pacific Ocean.

Of the islands, the “rainiest” island is debated to be between Maui and Kaua’i,  with O’ahu, Hawaii (Big Island), Moloka’i, and Lana’i following in subsequent totals. Between 1912 and 1942, Mount Waiʻaleʻale on Kaua’i reported an average rainfall of 460 inches annually, and this is commonly quoted today. A more recent 30-year analysis estimates it to be around 360 inches of rain annually. Maui’s Big Bog, however, has a 30-year estimate of around 404 inches of rain, much higher than the 30-year analysis for Kaua’i.

The geography of Hawaii creates an environment where the eastern side of each island gets most of the rainfall, while the western sides are more akin to desert-like climates; although they are islands, each is a volcanic mountain that rises much taller than one would expect. Mauna Kea on Hawaii (Big Island) has a peak of 13,803 feet tall. For comparison, Mount Elbert, the tallest US peak in the Rocky Mountains, stands at 14,440 feet when measured from sea level. This places Mauna Kea well within the upper ranges of mountain peaks if it were placed in the Rocky Mountains. However, when measured from its base, Mauna Kea is the tallest mountain in the world, whereas Mount Everest is the highest peak elevation.

Being in the middle of the Pacific Ocean also has an effect, of course. It is often grazed by hurricanes or their remnants, though most do not make direct impacts. Most storms track south of Hawaii where equatorial Pacific waters are warmest, with outer bands or remnant storms having the most impact, placing them well outside of the normal forecast cone. Hurricane Fausto is an anomaly in this sense, as its forecast cone has it directly impacting Hawaii as a Tropical Storm. It is still too soon to determine how strong the wind and rain from Fausto will be once it reaches the islands; however, these should start to resolve as Fausto approaches the islands.

The weekend of the 10th will bring excessive rain and flooding to the Ohio Valley, Heat to the Midwest and Southwest, and near-average conditions for the Northeast.

For Friday, highs across the country will be in the 80s and 90s, with lows in the high 40s to low 60s across the northern US and the eastern Rockies, while the southern and central US will see 70s into the low 80s. Much of the country will be near normal for this time of year. Central Kansas will be on the cooler side, around 8 degrees below normal as a surface front moves southward, while the Northern Rockies will be 10 degrees above average for both high and low temperatures. Light showers can be expected across the eastern US, with the southern Ohio Valley seeing localized amounts of 1 to 2 inches of rain. The southwestern and western US also face an elevated risk of fire as moisture moves out of the region.

For Saturday, much of the southern and western US could see high temperatures in the high 90s to above 100 degrees as an upper level high settles over the region. The Northern Rockies are notably warm, with temperatures almost 20 degrees above average across Montana and North Dakota. Saturday will see continued rainfall in the southern Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic as the front moves southward, with scattered showers continuing through the weekend. Southern Indiana and Tennessee could see localized totals between 2 and 4 inches, causing flash flooding, with 2-day totals reaching up to 6 inches.

In the Northern Rockies, where temperatures are well above average, extreme heat warnings are in effect, and local daily records are likely to be set in many cities. Outdoor activities are recommended to be minimized where possible, and plenty of water and breaks are recommended where not. In the southern Ohio Valley and northwestern Mid-Atlantic, a slight risk of excessive rainfall persists with storms Friday and Saturday, when flash flooding is most likely.

On Sunday, highs in the northeast will remain in the 80s and 90s in the southeast. The Southwest and the Rockies will remain 10-15 degrees above normal, with highs in the upper 90s to above 100 degrees from southern California to Montana and the Dakotas. Up to 1 inch of rain is expected as the storms move deeper into the Mid-Atlantic, with Eastern Kentucky, Western Virginia, and the Carolinas potentially seeing localized rainfall of up to 3 inches. Most of the southern US will also see light showers through the day.

Halfway through June, and the Great Lakes surface temperatures range from average to well below average. From Lake Erie being the shallowest, and Lake Superior being the largest, they play a large part in controlling the climate of downwind regions.

Befitting of its name, Lake Superior is the largest of the Great Lakes. Acting as a barrier between northerly winds and the Upper Peninsula of Michigan, Lake Superior helps keeps temperatures cool and assists in stabilizing the weather, though if conditions are setup just right, it can bring heavy lake effect snow to those same locations. In June, Lake Superior’s surface temperatures are below average, resting below 40 degrees across the lake. At this time of year, Lake Superior is typically in the lower to mid 40s.

Lake Superior is the deepest of the great lakes sitting at an average of 483 feet. Its deepest point sits 1332 feet below its surface, deep enough to submerge the Empire State building, not including its spire. But not all of the great lakes are this deep. Lake Erie holds the title as the shallowest of the Great Lakes, sitting at a mere 62 feet deep on average. Its deepest point rests at 210 feet.

In relation to its low average depth, Lake Erie has the warmest temperature on average, as its thermal reservoir of water is much shallower than that of the other great lakes. Lake Erie is currently sitting at mid to high 60s, which is right on average temperature for where it should be for mid June. It also cools the quickest, allowing ice to form on it earlier than any other lake.

Lake Ontario Produces the most lake effect snow of the Great Lakes, though Lake Erie and Buffalo, NY typically make the news more. In the winter of 2025-26, Lake Ontario produced nearly 27 feet of snow near Worth, NY in the Tug Hill region. Lake Effect Snow is created when cold, dry air moves over the still warm waters of the great lakes. Warm, moist air then quickly rises and condenses, falling as snow once the source of heat has left, most commonly over the opposite shore from the wind.

Lake Huron, While not being the largest of the Great Lakes, holds the title of longest shoreline, accredited in part to the more than 30,000 islands that it hosts, most of which are in the Georgian Bay or in Ontario, Canada. When conditions are just right, Lake Huron helps to fuel immensely long snow bands, increasing the snow from both lake Erie and Lake Ontario.

Finally, Lake Michigan is generally the most well known of the Great Lakes. All of the Great Lakes also produce lake breezes, where wind flows from the Lakes onto land, cooling shorelines significantly. They occur when land and air  temperatures are much warmer than water temperatures, and there is little wind to slow development. Lake breezes cool coastlines between 10 and 20 degrees, reaching 30 degrees if they are strong enough.

The Great Lakes are both a cultural corner stone and a significant weather component in North America. They provide cooling effects in the summer and heating effects in the winter, creating a more temperate climate surrounding them, as well as allowing for easy transport of goods across the region.