Severe Weather is continuing today and tonight in the Midwest, with a moderate risk of severe weather, up from yesterday’s enhanced risk. There is also an enhanced risk for both wind and tornadoes, with Northern Illinois and Southeastern Iowa under the greatest risk.
Severe weather continues with an upgraded risk in the Midwest. Image provided by NOAA
Starting in the Midwest, and the region of moderate severe weather, wind and tornadoes are the greatest threats. Northern Illinois is currently at the highest risk, with a 60-74% chance of destructive winds at any point within 25 miles of a location in that region. Northwest Indiana has a 45-59% risk within the same 25-mile range. The hatched region indicates elevated risk of 75 mph gusts, up from 50 mph in non-hatched areas, from downbursts or microbursts that can down trees or power lines, tear shingles off of roofs, and potentially destroy smaller and less structurally sound buildings.
Wind risk for the Midwest, with a hatched (75mph risk) covering much of the region. Image provided by NOAA
Northern Illinois has the highest risk of tornadoes, with a 15-29% chance of a tornado within 25 miles of any point in the dark red-shaded region. This region also has an elevated risk of a tornado being at least EF3, indicated by the left-leaning hatched region. Michigan, Missouri, Iowa, and Wisconsin have a 10-14% risk of a tornado, again within 25 miles of a point in the yellow shaded region. The dashed-hatched region indicates an elevated risk of a tornado being at least EF2 and extends across Michigan beyond the 10-14% risk. Tornadoes include all of the high-end wind threats and now also include potentially flipped vehicles or significant damage to well-built structures. Hail is also likely, with northern Illinois and northeastern Missouri potentially seeing 2-inch hail.
Tornado risk is centralized in Northern Illinois. The left-tilted hatched region represents a high potential of EF3 tornadoes, and the dashed EF2. Image provided by NOAA
Moving over to the northeast, the greatest threats in this area tonight is wind and hail. Washington, D.C., Baltimore, and Philadelphia are at the highest risk, with a 30-44% chance of severe wind, while New York is just outside it in the 15-29% range. While coastal cities are used to strong sea breezes being amplified through narrow urban corridors, severe wind generally blows in a different direction than expected and is stronger than a simple sea breeze. Severe Hail is also expected, with a 5-14% chance of quarter-sized hail across the northeast.
Wind risk in the Eastern US is centralized around coastal cities, though it extends across Pennsylvania. Image provided by NOAA
May 2026 was cooler than average for much of the Northeast, but the past week or two have seen warmer temperatures, though that might change this weekend.
Cooler temperatures were the norm for May 2026, with most of the region being at or below average temperature. Image provided by the Northeast Regional Climate Center.
A back door cold front is moving through the northeast, bringing short relief from the heat, but a ridge of high pressure in the north central US is giving way to severe weather expected to move across the northern US. Temperatures in the 80s and 90s are expected until the weekend, as a large area of low pressure follows the severe weather, bringing highs in the 60s to 70s for the East, and potentially into the 50s in the Central US.
A High pressure ridge over the Central US gives way to severe weather, followed by lower pressure over much of the northern US. Loop provided by Tropical Tidbits
The warmest weather is expected on Thursday and Friday, as the high pressure sets up offshore, bringing warm humid air up the coast. Records could be set once again along the I-95 corridor, with temperatures well into the 90s, potentially reaching triple digits in North Carolina. Water temperatures along the coast have warmed up, with temperatures in the 50s and 60s along New England and into the 80s along the Southeast and Gulf Coast, providing some relief for people heading to the beaches. Cool temperatures should return over the weekend as a cold front moves through the region.
Record highs are expected through eastern US on Friday as a high pressure ridge sets up off the coast. Image provided by Weathermodels.com
While the Eastern US can expect severe weather on Thursday and Friday, most of the Midwest is looking at severe weather continuing into Thursday.
Severe weather is likely to continue in the Central US Wednesday and Thursday, with the East Coast expecting some on Thursday and Friday. Image provided by Pivotal Weather
A low pressure trough pushing through a high pressure ridge promoted development of severe weather Tuesday night, which is expected to continue into Wednesday night and Thursday. Strong to severe thunderstorms are likely from the Central Plains northeastward into the Great Lakes, with an area developing along the East Coast on Thursday. Today, much of the Midwest can expect severe weather to continue, bringing strong winds, hail, and potentially tornadoes to the region, with a stronger wind threat Thursday, alongside continued hail and tornado risks.
The North Central Plains and Upper Midwest are looking at several rounds of storms tonight into Thursday. Image provided by NOAA.
As the system moves through, high pressure builds in behind it, bringing cooler temperatures and calmer weather. The East Coast can expect cooler weather on the weekend as the high makes its way to the region.
Atlantic hurricane season officially starts on Monday June 1 and runs through November 30, and most forecasts are showing the potential for a less active season, thanks to a developing El Nino in the Pacific.
List of names for storms that form during the 2026 Hurricane Season. Image provided by NOAA.
The 2025 season was a near normal season by the numbers, with 13 named storms, 5 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes. The season got off to a slower start than recent years, with only 3 storms through the end of July, and 6 through late August. The normal peak of hurricane season is late August and the first 3 weeks of September, but 2025 featured a complete absence of activity during that period. After Tropical Storm Fernand dissipate on August 27, there were no storms at all until Tropical Storm Gabrielle formed on September 17. That was the first of 7 named storms over the next 6 weeks, but once Hurricane Melissa dissipated on Halloween, there were no additional storms for the rest of the season. Hurricane Melissa was not only the strongest storm of the season, it was one of the strongest ever recorded in the basin. While stalling out south of Jamaica it rapidly strengthened into a Category 5 storm with maximum sustained winds near 190 mph, and a central pressure of 892mb not long before slamming into western Jamaica. The sustained winds of 190 are tied with 2019’s Hurricane Dorian, and the 1935 Labor Day Hurricane for the strongest on record in the Atlantic basin. The lowest central pressure of 892mb is tied with the 1935 Labor Day storm for the 3rd lowest on record in the Atlantic, trailing only the 882mb reading in 2005’s Hurricane Wilma, and the 888mb reading in 1988’s Hurricane Gilbert. It also is tied with the 1935 Labor Day storm for the lowest pressure on record at landfall. After the season was over, the name Melissa was retired and removed from the 6-year list of storm names. It will be replaced by Molly in 2031. Melissa is the 100th storm name to be retired in the Atlantic.
Radar loop showing Hurricane Melissa approaching Jamaica. Loop provided by Brian McNoldy, Univ. of Miami, Rosenstiel School.
Only one storm made landfall in the US in 2025 – Tropical Storm Chantal, which had maximum sustained winds of 50 mph when its center moved ashore near Myrtle Beach, South Carolina early on July 6. The one landfall is a welcome change from recent years that featured multiple storms making landfall in the US, many of them as hurricanes. In 2021, a total of 8 tropical systems made landfall in the United States, but only 2 at hurricane strength.
2025 was a less active hurricane season than previous years. Image provided by the National Hurricane Center.
Forecasts for the upcoming season are calling for a season that features below normal activity, due to a developing El Nino in the Pacific Ocean. In fact, there are many forecasts out there calling for a very strong El Nino. In general, where there is an El Nino present, activity in the Atlantic is suppressed, due mainly to increasing wind shear. However, this is not always the case, as El Nino is just one factor. In 2023, we had a strong El Nino in place for much of the hurricane season, and there were 20 named storms that season, making it the fourth most-active season on record. Of those 20 storms, 7 became hurricanes, and 3 were major hurricanes. Hurricane Idalia slammed into the Florida Big Bend region as a Category 3 storm. Sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic are below normal for a large portion of the basin right now, especially in the Main Development Region, but they are forecast to warm to near to above normal levels, which tends to result in more storms.
Sea surface temperatures are below normal right now across much of the Tropical Atlantic and much of the Caribbean. Image provided by Tropical Tidbits.
NOAA issued their seasonal hurricane outlook on May 21, and it calls for a 55 percent chance for a below normal season, a 35 percent chance for a near normal season, and just a 10 percent chance for an above normal season. Most of the other hurricane outlooks issued by various outlets are also expecting a near to below normal season, due to the signals mentioned above. An average season consists of 14.4 named storms, of which 7.2 become hurricanes and 3.2 become major hurricanes (Category 3 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson scale). NOAA’s forecast for this season calls for 8-14 named storms, 3-6 hurricanes, and 1-3 major hurricanes. The Tropical Meteorology Project at Colorado State, the first group to forecast how active a hurricane season would be, originally led by the late Dr. Bill Gray, will issue their updated forecast on June 10. Their initial forecast from April called for a below average season, with 13 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2 major hurricanes.
Tropical activity in the Atlantic is expected to be below normal this season. Image provided by NOAA.
Despite the early start for the many of the past several years, the average date for the first named storm in the Atlantic is still June 20, and the average date for the first hurricane is August 11. Over 97% of all named storms in the Atlantic form between June 1 and November 30. Most early season storms tend to be on the weaker side, as water temperatures are cooler, and wind shear is usually a little stronger. A hurricane hasn’t made landfall in the United States before July 1 since Hurricane Bonnie came ashore as a minimal hurricane near the Texas/Louisiana border on June 26, 1986.
Based on climatology, the most likely spots for an early season storm are off the Southeast coast, in the Gulf of Mexico, or the northwestern Caribbean. Image provided by the National Hurricane Center.
The number of storms that form in any given season has no correlation on how many storms (if any) will impact the United States. In 2010, 19 named storms were observed in the Atlantic, 12 of them became hurricanes, and 5 were major hurricanes. Only one storm made landfall in the United States, and that was Bonnie, which was a minimal tropical storm at landfall. In 1990, there were a total 14 named storms, 8 of them hurricanes and 1 major hurricane. Not a single one of them made landfall in the United States. On the flip side, only 7 named storms formed in 1992, and the first one didn’t develop until August 16. That storm, however, was named Andrew, and it made landfall just south of Miami as a category 5 storm. It only takes one storm to ruin your entire year.
Virtually the entire Atlantic and Gust Coast are susceptible to a direct strike from a hurricane. Image provided by the National Centers for Environmental Information
As always, you should get your weather information from a trusted source, especially when dealing with tropical systems. It’s always best to prepare ahead of the season. Chances are, you won’t have anything to worry about, but in case you do, it’s always good to be prepared.
Winter of 2025-2026 left the snowpacks of the Rockies in a dire state. Combined with one of the warmest winters on record and a looming El Nino, most Western states are looking at a worsening drought for the summer. Cities across the West saw record low snowfall and record high temperatures this past winter. Combined with an abnormally warm March, snowpack in the mountains is at the lowest it has been since records were first kept.
Map showing snowpack percent of median from 1991 to 2020 as of May 26. Most of the region is significantly below the average, reporting around or below 40% of the median snowpack. Image provided by the US Department of Agriculture
In portions of Colorado, Wyoming, and southwestern Montana, most of the season snowfall occurs during the fall and in the Spring, not in the winter like much of the remainder of the nation. This year, the majority of the snow has fallen in the Spring, with multiple late season snowstorms have helped to replenish the snowpack. Most of this is falling in the mountains, where the majority of the snowpack typically resides.
72 Hour snowfall reports from May 22nd in the Rockies. Parts of western Montana, Wyoming, and Colorado received at least 8 to 12 inches of snow between May 19 and May 22. Image provided by NOAA
Low snowpack in the West, combined with warmer temperatures earlier in the year, have detrimental effects going into both Spring and Summer. Normally, warmer temperatures arrive in during May and June, allowing the snowmelt to provide a semi-constant source of water, keeping soils moist and vegetation wetter into the warmer months. With the snowpack being at effectively zero this year, it creates an environment that is prime for wildfires, as vegetation and soil dry out early in the season.
An above average significant wildlands fire potential exists for Florida, the mid-southwest, and northwest for June 2026. Image provided by the National Interagency Fire Center.
With below average precipitation and above average temperatures expected in the coming months, the drought that has been gripping the region is also expected to expand, further increasing the risk of wildfires. Alongside the increased risk of wildfires as the season starts earlier comes the increased risk of more severe wildfires as more vegetation becomes drought stressed.
While drought conditions may improve in the Southwest, they will likely worsen across much of the remainder of the West over the next few months. Image provided by NOAA
Over the several weeks, precipitation across most of the Central and Northern US is expected to be below normal. Rainfall should continue across much of the Southeast, alleviating drought concerns there. Similar conditions are also expected in the Southwest as the annual monsoon develops.
Precipitation is expected to be below normal for much of the Central and Western US, with the Southeast and parts of the Southwest seeing some relief. Image provided by Weathermodels.com
With a developing El Nino, more rainfall is expected across the southern tier of states over the coming months, with drier conditions to the north.
There’s an old saying in meteorology that goes “Droughts end in Floods”. That is likely to be the case over the next few days, as an extensive, and in some cases significant drought currently grips a large portion of the nation, but relief is on the way for some areas.
Drought conditions continue across a large portion of the nation. Image provided by the National Drought Mitigation Center.
As is typical with a La Nina pattern that had been in place since last summer, dry weather was common for much of the southern tier of states over the past several months. Many locations from eastern Texas to the Southeast and up the East Coast are running precipitation deficits on the order of 6 to 12 inches or more over the past 6 months. This has worsened drought conditions in many areas, and created them in spots that weren’t that dry to begin with. That dry pattern is about to change.
Rainfall totals are well below normal across much of the South and the East this year. Image provided by weathermodels.com
A strong cold front extends from the Great Lakes to Texas this evening, and while the northern portion of the front will head eastward tonight and Wednesday, southern portions of the front will become stationary from Texas to the Carolinas over the next few days. With a southerly flow south and east of the front, moisture from the Gulf of Mexico will continue to flow northward, resulting in numerous episodes of showers and thunderstorms over the next several days from Texas to the Southeast.
Strong to severe thunderstorms are ongoing late this afternoon from Texas to the Ohio Valley. Loop provided by the College of DuPage. (Click for loop)
Strong to severe thunderstorms are already occurring across parts of Texas, and they will spread across much of the remainder of the Lone Star State this evening. With that front stalled out across central portions of the state for the next few days, waves of low pressure will ride along it, resulting in numerous episodes of heavy rain and thunderstorms. While severe weather is still possible along the tail end of the front in west Texas on Wednesday, heavy rain will be the main threat for the next several days. Between now and next Tuesday, much of southern and eastern Texas as well as nearby portions of Louisiana, Arkansas, and Mississippi could see as much as 4 to 8 inches of rain, with isolated totals to 10 inches or more possible. While this will wipe out the precipitation deficits, it will also result in flooding in many areas, especially urban areas like Houston where flash flooding is common during heavy rainfall.
Very heavy rain is likely across portions of Texas and the Lower Mississippi Valley over the next week. Image provided by WeatherBell.
Farther east, drought conditions remain very problematic across parts of the Southeast, where wildfires have been a problem this Spring. While some rainfall will move in over the next few days, the bulk of the heavy rain will stay north of this area, with the front remaining stationary across the Tennessee Valley and the Carolinas. In these spots, rainfall will still be significant, on the order of 1-3 inches and locally heavier, over the next several days, but nowhere near what will fall across Texas and the Lower Mississippi Valley. Drought conditions persist in this region as well, so the rainfall will be welcome.
Several rounds of thunderstorms and heavy rain are likely from the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys to the Carolinas and parts of the East Coast this week. Image provided by weathermodels.com
Heavy rainfall is also likely across parts of the Ohio Valley, likely resulting in flooding in some spots. This are has received persistent rainfall through the Spring, so drought it not an issue, and the heavy rain falling on ground that is already saturated, or near saturation will end up in flooding. Many rivers in the region are already near flood stage, especially across southern Indiana and southern Illinois, so the addition rain will send these rivers over their banks.
Much of the Spring has featured an upper-level trough of low pressure across the Northeast, but that will change this weekend.
Temperatures have been below normal across most of the Northeast since mid-April. Image provided by the Northeast Regional Climate Center.
A persistent trough of low pressure has kept temperatures below normal across the Northeast for much of the past several weeks, but a ridge of high pressure will build in this weekend, both at the surface and aloft, resulting in some much warmer weather. Temperatures will get well into the 70s and 80s this weekend, with some spots topping 90. A weak backdoor cold front will bring cooler weather to parts of New England Sunday night and Monday, with temperatures only in the 60s and lower 70s, especially near the coastline, but inland areas, especially outside of New England, should get well into the 80s and lower 90s.
A ridge of high pressure will build into the East over the next few days. Loop provided by Tropical Tidbits.
The warmest weather is expected Tuesday and Wednesday with high pressure anchored offshore. Southwest winds will bring warm and increasingly humid air to much of the East Coast, with high temperatures well into the 80s and 90s, likely setting records in many locations along the Interstate-95 corridor. Anyone heading to the beach for relief should remember that the water is still relatively cold as it is early in the season. Water temperatures are only in the 40s and 50s off the coast of New England, and 50s and 60s off the Mid-Atlantic coastline. A strong cold front will bring an end to the heat later Wednesday, possibly with some strong to severe thunderstorms accompanying that front.
Record highs are possibly in many locations in the Northeast Monday through Wednesday. Image provided by Weathermodels.com
While areas in the East Coast are looking at the potential for severe weather on Wednesday, many spots in the Plains states and Midwest could see several waves of severe weather over the next few days.
A multi-day severe weather event is likely across the nation’s mid-section. Image provided by Pivotal Weather.
Low pressure developing in the southwestern Plains states will only slowly move northeastward over the next few days. Strong to severe thunderstorms are likely this afternoon and evening from the Central Plains eastward into parts of the Mississippi and Ohio Valleys. Areas from eastern Colorado across Kansas and Nebraska and into Iowa are under the gun today, with some of the stronger storms likely producing damaging winds, large hail, heavy downpours, and tornadoes. As the system slowly moves out of the Plains states and toward the Upper Mississippi Valley on Sunday, the focus of severe weather will shift into parts of the Northern and Central Plains and Upper Midwest, especially from Nebraska into Iowa and parts of Minnesota. Once again, storms may produce strong winds, large hail, heavy downpours, and tornadoes.
The Central Plains will be under the gun for multiple rounds of severe weather over the next few days. Images provided by the Storm Prediction Center.
By Monday, as the system moves into the Great Lakes and drags a strong cold front behind it across the Plains states, a very active day is expected from northern Texas northeastward to Michigan. Widespread strong to severe thunderstorms are likely, but the area from northern Oklahoma to Iowa is where the strongest storms are expected, with many supercells producing large hail, damaging winds, and numerous tornadoes. As the front moves eastward the threat for severe weather on Tuesday will shift to parts of the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley, as well as the southern Plains, and then potentially to parts of the East Coast and Tennessee Valley on Wednesday.
Drought conditions continue across a large portion of the nation. Image provided by the National Drought Mitigation Center.
There is a bit of a silver lining to this, as widespread rainfall, some of it heavy, is likely across a large portion of the nation’s mid-section. Much of this region, especially the Central and Southern Plains, is in the middle of a significant drought, so any rain is beneficial, and will help put a dent in the drought, especially as the growing season gets underway.
Another late-season snowstorm is possible across parts of the Intermountain West and the Rockies late this weekend and early next week. Image provided by WeatherBell.
Behind the cold front, much colder air will settle into the Plains states and the Rockies. Some record lows are possible both Monday and Tuesday morning as temperatures drop into the 20s and 30s. At the same time, another low pressure system will be moving across the Great Basin, and as it encounters the colder airmass, snow is expected across the mountains, with much-needed rain at the lower elevations. Winter Storm Watches have already been issued for parts of Wyoming for late Sunday and Monday, and more are likely to be issued for parts of the region, including Utah and Colorado, later today. Some of the mountains could pick up as much as 1-2 feet of snow, possibly even more in spots. Some flakes could mix in with the rain in the Denver area Monday and Monday night, with accumulations likely in the foothills west of the city. After a fairly dry winter, the snow is welcome, as it will help with spring runoff.
Chief Meteorologist Rob Carolan was a gust on the latest version of “Analyze This with Neville James” on the NPR station in the United States Virgin Islands.
The podcast is described as: “Neville James engages in an informative conversation with veteran meteorologist Rob Carolyn, blending personal storytelling with expert insight on weather and hurricanes.”
People across the United States are preparing for the upcoming winter season. Some areas, especially in the north and at higher elevations, have already experienced their first snowfall of the season. Many areas across the eastern United States will experience what is likely the coldest weather of the year so far, as a low-pressure system brings cold arctic air to the region.
Arctic air will send temperatures plummeting across the eastern half of the United States. Image provided by Weather Models.
A cold front sweeping across the eastern half of the United States will pull arctic air out of Canada as it moves east, causing temperatures to plummet. Areas near the Appalachian Mountains could experience afternoon high temperatures more than 30 degrees below normal on Monday, with record lows possible on Tuesday morning across the southeastern United States.
The cold air will allow for record-breaking temperatures across the Southeast on Tuesday morning. Image provided by Weatherbell.
Freeze warnings are in effect for some places across the region, meaning these sub-freezing temperatures could damage, or even kill, crops and other sensitive vegetation. When a freeze warning is in effect, it is recommended that anyone affected take precautionary measures to protect these sensitive plants. Fortunately, these cold temperatures will only be around for a short time across the Southeast. High pressure is expected to move over this region by the middle of the week, allowing temperatures to stabilize and possibly even shift above normal through the end of the week.
Freeze warnings are in effect for areas in the Southeastern United States. Those within the warning area should take steps to ensure the safety of sensitive plants and vegetation. Image provided by the National Weather Service.
In the north, a low-pressure system will bring rain and snow from the Great Lakes to the Northeast. During this time, areas in the Great Lakes will experience their first Lake Effect event of the season. An upper-level wave will swing around behind the larger low-pressure system, bringing snow to most areas in its wake. Communities along the south shore of Lake Michigan will experience the highest snowfall totals from this system, with several inches of snow possible in some areas.
Several inches of snow are expected to fall in Northwest Indiana, along the coast of Lake Michigan, due to a Lake Effect snow event. Image provided by Weather Models.
This disturbance will also keep things unsettled across the Northeast as it moves offshore around the middle of the week, with snow showers possible each day in Northern New England and Upstate New York. Another system following behind will bring a continued chance for snow and rain showers across the region through Thursday, before high pressure eventually moves in toward the end of the week.
The pattern will remain unsettled across the Northeast for much of the week as a series of systems and smaller disturbances move through the region. Loop provided by Tropical Tidbits.
After several weeks of mainly dry weather from the Mid-Atlantic to the Northeast, many areas are experiencing abnormally dry to drought conditions, with some areas even seeing an extreme drought. A developing low-pressure system could bring some relief to areas.
Dry weather over the last several weeks has caused most of the Eastern U.S. to become dry, with some areas even experiencing extreme drought conditions. Image provided by the National Drought Mitigation Center.
A system is developing off the coast of the Southeastern United States and is beginning to move north. At the same time, another smaller system is moving out of southern Canada and through the Great Lakes. By the end of the weekend, these two systems will combine near the Mid-Atlantic and progress toward New England.
A small low-pressure system will combine with a larger system in the Atlantic, then strengthen, bringing gusty winds and heavy rain from the Delmarva Peninsula to New England. Loop provided by Pivotal Weather. (Click for loop)
As this system strengthens, it will bring the potential for strong and gusty winds from the Delmarva Peninsula to the southern coast of New England through the beginning of the week. This region still has most of its leaves on the trees, so these gusty winds could bring down the heavy trees, resulting in more widespread power outages.
A coastal storm is expected to bring strong winds to coastal areas in the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic. Loop provided by WeatherBell.
This system is also expected to bring heavy rain across the region. While much of the region is experiencing a drought and desperately needs rain, some areas, especially those closer to the coast, are at a higher risk of flooding. The greatest potential for flooding will be between Sunday afternoon and Monday night, with coastal flood watches and advisories already in effect spanning southern New England and the Mid-Atlantic. In combination with the highest rainfall totals near the coast, tides are still running higher than usual from the astronomical high tides that occurred earlier this week. Strong winds will also contribute to the formation of large waves offshore, creating a long fetch. The persistent east and northeast flow will allow these large waves in the long fetch area to move onshore, posing a greater threat to flooding in coastal areas, especially from Cape Cod to the northern Mid-Atlantic through Monday evening.
Areas closer to the coast from Massachusetts to Delaware are expected to receive the heaviest rainfall from this system, leading to the potential for flooding. Image provided by Weather Models.
Impacts will begin to diminish Monday night as the system starts to pull away from the region before high pressure builds in behind over the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic, allowing for drier weather through at least the middle of the week.
While the 2025 Atlantic Hurricane season has remained relatively quiet, things are starting to ramp up as we end September. Hurricane Humberto, now a Category 5 storm, will continue on a northwest track before turning northeast toward the beginning of the week. The storm will travel between Bermuda and the eastern United States coast, while remaining over open waters as it progresses into the Northeast Atlantic.
Humberto will remain over open waters as it moves northwest before turning northeast near the beginning of the week. Image provided by Weather Models.
Another disturbance being monitored near Haiti and the Bahamas has been named Tropical Storm Imelda, with strengthening expected to continue through the start of the week as it becomes more organized. This system will progress north, toward the Carolinas, where areas are still recovering from the devastation brought by Helene just one year ago.
Tropical Storm Imelda will progress north-northwest, where it will interact with a stalled front. These two systems will contribute to heavy rainfall across the Carolinas. Image provided by Tomer Berg.
A frontal system moving off the East Coast will remain stalled, allowing rainfall to continue through the next several days. As Tropical Storm Imelda moves north, it will interact with the stalled front, then turn east and remain out at sea. Areas closer to the North and South Carolina coasts will have the highest chance of significant rainfall from these systems, with higher totals also possible locally, especially in higher terrain.
Areas of North and South Carolina could see several inches of rain as a result of a stalled front and a tropical system in the Atlantic. Image provided by Weatherbell.
Much of this area is currently experiencing abnormally dry to moderate drought conditions, so many residents in this area are hoping for relief, but that will likely not be the case. When heavy and excessive rainfall occurs, especially in regions experiencing drought, the ground struggles to absorb the water at the rate at which it is falling. This, in turn, will cause flooding, which can be extreme and catastrophic, especially in areas still recovering from previous flooding events.
Most areas of North and South Carolina need rain, but excessive rainfall in a single event can lead to catastrophic flooding. Image provided by the National Drought Mitigation Center.
