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Record Flooding in the Southeast, Joaquin Batters Bermuda

Historic rainfall has fallen across portions of the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic states over the past few days. Unfortunately, the combination of strong onshore winds, a convergence boundary and tropical moisture from offshore Hurricane Joaquin will produce even more rainfall into Monday. From start to finish, some places in the Southeast could see up 15 to 20 or more inches of rain from this event. In South Carolina, the 24 hour record for rainfall is 14.88 inches. Strong winds have been another piece of this storm, but not as noteworthy as the rain and flooding. There were numerous reports of trees down while wind gusts were between 35 and 45 mph in North and South Carolina Saturday morning.

Flooding from strong onshore winds bringing tropical moisture in the Southeast. Yellow (green) boxes show wind (flood) report locations up to noon Saturday. Green unfilled polygons are warnings.

Rainfall totals in the Southeast. Many areas saw totals normally seen at or over ever 200 years. — Rainfall totals in the Southeast. Many areas saw totals normally seen at or over every 200 years.

In the Atlantic, Hurricane Joaquin is moving to the north-northeast at 14 mph, past Bermuda where its eye has begun to appear on the Bermuda radar. It is expected to pass around 70 miles west of Bermuda and the latest aircraft recon report showed a wind of close to 110 mph in the storm. Two different systems will help define the flow for the storm’s movement over the next few days as a low pressure system to the west and a high pressure system to the east allow for a north-northeast path, with a turn more toward the northeast expected on Monday. Then, an acceleration to the east-northeast is forecast, taking it away from the United States. Along its track, it will encounter increasing shear over the next two days while the environment becomes increasing drier. With these in mind, a decrease in intensity for the storm is forecast for the next 48 hours. After that, an extratropical transition is expected to occur by the middle of the week, allowing for further weakening as it reaches an area of very strong shear and cooler water temperatures.

Two other areas warrant watching in the Atlantic. One is several hundred miles southwest of the Cape Verde Islands and has a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Upper level winds are not conducive at the moment, so any development this week would be slow at best. The second is even weaker than the first, and is located about 800 miles east-southeast of Bermuda. Environmental conditions are becoming less conducive for development with Hurricane Joaquin nearby. Therefore, development of this system is not anticipated.

The Eastern Pacific contains the tropical system that is the biggest threat to the United States. Tropical Storm Oho is located about 565 miles south-southeast of Honolulu, Hawaii, or 375 miles south of South Point, Hawaii. It is drifting toward the north at just 2 mph, and has maximum sustained winds of 40 mph. A turn to the north and then northeast with an increase in forward speed is expected on Monday and for the foreseeable future as a high pressure system to the north breaks down and allows for more southwesterly steering flow. The storm will be fighting through shear, but will have warm sea surface temperatures to tap into, ahead of stronger shear towards mid-week, which should lead to a weakening trend. Farther to the west, Tropical Cyclone Eight-C has become post tropical about 450 miles south-southwest of Johnston Island. It has sustained winds of 30 mph and is moving northwest at 3 mph. The remnants of this system are expected to head out over the open waters of the Central Pacific Ocean.

Tropical Storm Joaquin Tough to Forecast Off U.S. East Coast

This article originally appeared on Bloomberg.com

Forecasters are watching Tropical Storm Joaquin as it strengthens in the Atlantic near the Bahamas to see if it will become a threat to the U.S. East Coast later this week.

Joaquin was about 425 miles (685 kilometers) east-northeast of the northwestern Bahamas with winds of 45 miles per hour, up from 40 mph, as of 11 a.m. East Coast time, the National Hurricane Center said in an advisory. It was moving west at 5 mph.

Storm shown in photo taken by NOAA satellite Sept. 29, 2015, east of Bahamas.

The storm has become better organized and will be entering an area of low wind shear that will allow it to strengthen further. The current forecast calls for it to have top winds of 70 mph by Friday, just below the threshold for a hurricane.

“The NHC wind speed predictions may be conservative, since some guidance suggests that Joaquin could become a hurricane in a few days,” Senior Hurricane SpecialistRichard Pasch wrote in the center’s forecast analysis.

Track Outlook

Joaquin is the 10th storm of the six-month Atlantic hurricane season that ends on Nov. 30. Current track outlooks call for it to move west toward the Bahamas, then parallel to the U.S. East Coast and be off the North Carolina coastline by Sunday.

Earlier, meteorologists at the center said computer forecast models are having trouble determining the strength of a low-pressure trough that is predicted to set up over the southeastern U.S. This weather pattern will help control where Joaquin will go.

How strong and well-organized Joaquin is will also determine its path and how it moves.

“I think you are going to see a lot of run-to-run disparity in the models,” said Rob Carolan, a meteorologist at Hometown Forecast Services Inc. in Nashua, New Hampshire.

Mixed Scenarios

Monday, some models called for the storm to drive itself into the East Coast. Carolan said that prediction has since faded. “Anyone who says they have any confidence in where it is going to go is lying to you.”

Another possibility is for a frontal system moving across the eastern U.S. to absorb Joaquin and destroy it.

What is likely is that the U.S. Northeast, including New York, will get drenched from “fire-hose precipitation,” Carolan said. This will be in addition to heavy rain falling on the area from other weather systems through Wednesday.

Through the next week, nearly 8 inches (20 centimeters) of rain is forecast to fall across northern New England, and about 7 inches in southern New York and northern New Jersey, the U.S. Weather Prediction Center said.

“I don’t think Joaquin ends up being a wind event; I think the big concern is the rain,” Carolan said.

Quiet Weather Across Much of the US, A Few Systems to Watch in the Tropics

A large majority of the nation is enjoying quiet weather this Sunday. The biggest exception is in the Southeast thanks to a developing low pressure system east of Georgia. The persistent easterly flow north of the system, combined with a strong high pressure area to the north, along with astronomically high tides. is producing flooding along the coast from the Mid-Atlantic states southward to Florida. A second area of low pressure is centered across the Gulf of Mexico. This will bring showers and thunderstorms to much of the Gulf Coast, and Deep South. Some of these storms could produce locally heavy rainfall as well.

Meanwhile, strong winds are noted across the Northern Plains ahead of a cold front. Wind gusts have exceeded 30-40 mph across portions of the region today. The front will cross the region tonight, with only a few showers expected in places. However, as the front moves farther to south and east in the coming days, expect showers and possible thunderstorms along it as it runs into warm/moist air. The place that looks the most conducive to severe weather tomorrow should be from the Western Plains into the Central Rockies.

In the Atlantic, an area of disturbed weather about 425 miles southwest of Bermuda is being monitored for tropical development. Conditions are favorable for additional development for the next day or two, but should become unfavorable beyond that. Another area that is being monitored for possible tropical development is located over the northeast Yucatan Peninsula this afternoon. This system is interacting with an upper-level low pressure system in the western Gulf of Mexico, producing scattered showers and thunderstorm. This system is expected to move north toward the northern Gulf over the next couple of days, but upper level winds are only marginally conducive for development. Whether or not tropical development occurs with this storm, it will likely produce heavy rainfall across the Gulf Coast and parts of the Southeast over the next several days. Elsewhere in the Atlantic, Tropical Depression Ida dissipated about 1000 miles east of the Leeward islands this afternoon.

Tropical cyclone activity over the Western Atlantic with Ida's remnants and two other areas worth watching. — Tropical cyclone activity over the Western Atlantic with Ida’s remnants and two other areas worth watching.

In the Eastern Pacific. Tropical Storm Marty is centered about 235 miles west-southwest of Acapulco, Mexico this afternoon, drifting toward the north at 3 mph. Some slight strengthen is expected over the next day or so before a weakening trend will likely commence. The forecast track for Marty contains some uncertainty, but due to its proximity to the Mexican coast, a Tropical Storm Watch has been issued from Acapulco to Lazaro Cardenas. Another area of storms about 1000 miles southwest of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico is being monitored for development this afternoon. Conditions aren’t favorable for development at this time, but as it drifts northward or northeastward over the next few days, some development is possible.

Tornado in South Carolina and Tropical Update

A strong easterly wind in the low levels of the atmosphere has brought much-needed rainfall into the Southeast. In some places,the rain was heavy enough to result in flooding across eastern portions of North Carolina and South Carolina. Late Thursday night, low level winds briefly turned to the southeast providing spin in the atmosphere and allowing for an EF-2 tornado to occur in South Carolina. Numerous homes, buildings and trees were damaged as a result and roads were blocked before clean-up started. It is amazing that no injuries or fatalities were reported with this tornado after seeing the damage and knowing that it occurred overnight.

Anomalously strong easterly winds shown with the u or horizontal component on top — Anomalously strong easterly winds shown with the horizontal component on top

Severe warnings and storm reports. Red (green) polygons and squares are the tornado (flood) warnings and reports.

This area of strong easterly winds will continue to slowly move up the East Coast, and reside across the Mid-Atlantic states and the waters south of New England by late Tuesday as a departing high pressure clears the way for its northward movement. However, dry air that has been in place over Southern New England and more of a large scale shift to southerly winds ahead of an approaching cold front should allow for less intense rainfall as the strong easterly winds shift offshore.

Meanwhile, in the tropics, the Atlantic continues to remain active with Tropical Depression Ida centered about 1115 miles east-northeast of the northern Leeward Islands. as of late Saturday afternoon Currently, Ida has a large area of circulation, but the convection has been shoved east of its exposed low level center as a result of strong westerly shear. However, the shear is expected to lessen tomorrow and at least one model shows some strengthening possible. Other models indicated that Ida could dissipate over the next few days as a cold front starts to approach it from the west. Ida is currently moving northwestward at 8 mph today, but it is expected take a turn more toward the west-northwest tonight and then southwestward late tomorrow as an area of high pressure builds in north of the system. Elsewhere, an area of disturbed weather is expected to crossed Central America into the central Gulf of Mexico and interacts with a low pressure system nearby.There is a low chance that this could develop into a tropical system over the Gulf of Mexico early next week. A second area of disturbed weather is located across the western Atlantic Ocean, but upper level winds remain unfavorable for development and further development is unlikely at this time.

Tropical Storm Niala with tropical storm watch over Hawaii in yellow — Forecast track for Tropical Storm Niala

In the Central Pacific, Tropical Storm Niala was centered about 270 miles southeast of Hilo, Hawaii at midday. A tropical storm watch is in effect for the Big island of Hawaii as the storm approaches from the east. Niala is expected to pass south of the Islands, but possibly close enough to impact the Big Island. There is also the possibility that Niala could weaken fairly quickly, minimizing any impact on Hawaii. A turn to the southwest is then forecast over the next 36 to 48 hours.

Drought Continues in the Northeast, Heavy Rain Possible in the Southeast

The past several months have been mostly warm and dry across much of the Northeast. The next week or so will see a continuation of the dry pattern, but temperatures will be much cooler. Meanwhile, persistent but much-needed rainfall is expected across the Southeast for the next several days.

A large area of high pressure will settle into southeastern Canada over the next several days, slowly drifting east-southeastward into New England and then into the North Atlantic. This will provide plenty of sunshine to much of the Northeast. However, the clockwise flow around the high will produce northeast to easterly winds across the region, blowing in off the Atlantic, where water temperatures are only in the upper 50s to middle 60s. As a result, high temperatures will only be in the 60s to lower 70s for most of the remainder of the week. In most cases, this is near to a little below normal for the latter half of September. Nighttime lows will be mainly in the 50s near the urban areas and 40s in the suburbs, with some 30s in northern locations. This is also a little below normal. This is a stark contrast to the first half of September, which was close to the warmest on record for much of the region.

Temperature anomaly forecast for the next 5 days. (Image from WeatherBell)

The dry weather is not good news though, as much of the Northeast has been in a drought for the past several months. Many locations are 4-8 inches below normal over the past several months. This may have a big impact on the fall foliage across the region. The warm and dry conditions may result in less vibrant colors across the region, and may also result in many leaves falling from the trees before reaching peak color. Windy conditions could result in additional leaves dropping early as well. Some of the leaves are already starting to change colors in far northern areas, with a few splashes of color showing up elsewhere.

Leaves are just starting to change color in the Northeast (Photo take by Scott Kaplan) — Leaves are just starting to change color in the Northeast (Photo taken by Scott Kaplan)

Meanwhile, to the south, a weak area of low pressure is sitting a few hundred miles off the North Carolina coastline. With the large high pressure area to the north, the system has nowhere to go, and will likely remain off the coast for the next several days, slowly drifting westward towards the Carolinas. Although water temperatures remain warm, the system is not tropical in origin, and conditions aren’t favorable for much strengthening. The storm will bring plenty of beneficial rainfall to the region though, with widespread totals of 1-3 inches expected from southern Virginia across the Carolinas and into Georgia. Along the coast of North and South Carolina, even heavier totals are possible, with some places possibly receiving more than 5 inches of rain by the end of the week.

Rainfall forecast for the next 5 days. (Image from NWS Weather Prediction Center)

In between the high to the north and low to the south, an area of persistent strong winds is expected along the Mid-Atlantic coastline. Easterly winds of 15 to 25 mph, occasionally gusting to 40 mph or more are expected for much of the week from New Jersey southward to North Carolina. When combined with astronomically high tides, some coastal flooding is possible. Coastal flood advisories and high surf advisories have already been posted for parts of the region, and additional advisories and/or warnings are likely to be issued in the next day or two. There is also a high risk of rip currents in this area, so anyone planning on heading to the beach should pay attention and heed any warnings posted.

Unsettled Conditions as a Cold Front Moves into the Southeast

A cold front is the major weather-maker today as it settles into the Southern Plains and Southeast. The front will continue to push through the Southern Plains on Monday producing additional showers and thunderstorms. The main threat for those storms will be gusty winds, hail and heavy rain. As the front stalls out across the Southeast over the next few days, it will have ample opportunity to create showers and storms with the possibility of heavy rain, wind, and possibly some hail. This is not to say that showers and thunderstorms are expected the entire time, as cloud cover and dry air will both remain in place nearby. So watching for when energetic disturbances move into those regions will be key for storm initiation. One such disturbance looks to push through today in Texas while an upper level low serves as a center for storms on Monday in the Southeast.

sfc anal — Tonight’s projected weather map showing the cold front in the Southeast and Central Plains

Meanwhile, in the tropics there are a few areas that bear watching. The strongest is in the Atlantic Ocean as Tropical Storm Ida continues its northwestward movement at 17 mph. As an area of high pressure strengthens to the north of Ida, it should slow down the storm’s forward motion and models indicate that it may become stationary as well. Ida’s low-level center remains exposed because of the westerly shear. This shear is expected to weaken in the next day or two, allowing for the possibility of strengthening. However, the shear is expected to pick back up as an upper level trough helps to increase it. This may stall or even decrease the intensity of the storm. Another area of interest in the Atlantic resides about 325 miles east of northeast Florida. Because it is not showing signs of being tropical or even subtropical, the reconnaissance mission into the storm that was scheduled for today was canceled. The storm resides in an area that is not conducive to development while its low level center remains exposed. All of these factors give low tropical formation chances within the next few days.

wx image 2 — Areas with possible tropical development over the next few days.

In the Eastern Pacific, an area of storms located west of the Baja Peninsula has been tagged as Tropical Depression Sixteen-E. As it moves north-northwestward at 14 mph, it looks to enter an area less conducive to development tonight with cooler waters and strong upper level winds. It will also spread heavy rain into the Baja Peninsula and northwestern Mexico today and into portions of southern California and Arizona on Monday and Tuesday. Once again, be aware of flash floods and mud slides in mountainous areas of Mexico and the Southwest.

In the Central Pacific, Tropical Depression five-C continues to battle shear on its western side, shifting all the convection to the eastern side and exposing the low level center. The depression is moving toward the north-northeast and is expected to increase its speed today as steering flow increases. As it moves along its track, a shift from a northeastward movement to more northward and then northwestward movement is expected as it gets caught in the upper level pattern. Some model disagreement occurs with the intensity of the storm itself, but it is expected to increase in intensity from a tropical depression to a tropical storm later tonight, even as shear increases. However, the system should transition into an extratropical storm over the next 2-3 days. Tropical Storm watches and warnings are in effect for some of the Central Pacific islands located well to the west of the Hawaiian Islands.

Helpful Rain in the West and the Tropics Get Active Again

Drought conditions persist across the Western United States, in some places the drought is extreme. Because of the dryness, along with lightning from thunderstorms among other causes, wildfires have been sparked all over the region. A few wildfires have burned property including the well-known “Valley Fire” in California, which has even claimed lives.

western drought — Drought conditions across the Western United States as of September 15, 2015.

Some welcome relief was also seen this past week as a low pressure system and cold front moved onto the United States from the Pacific Ocean. This produced rainfall from the San Francisco Bay Area northward to Washington State. A report detailing the fire situation quoted an official with Cal Fire saying, “Crews have made continued good progress on several fires burning in California. A little bit of rain has helped along with cooler temperatures and higher humidity.” Of course, as a cold front pushes through an area where a wildfire is ongoing, forecasters and firefighters are also aware of increasing winds and wind direction changes that may help to spread the fire even further.

Elsewhere, as we get into the climatological peak of hurricane season, the tropics are becoming active again. In the Atlantic there are three areas that are being monitored. Tropical storm Ida is centered a little more than 1100 miles west of the Cape Verde Islands and is moving west-northwest at 14 mph. It has maximum sustained winds at 40 mph. Ida should remain a tropical storm for the next few days while crossing the Central Atlantic.

A little farther to the west. Tropical Depression Nine dissipated late Saturday afternoon. Conditions are not favorable for the storm to redevelop over the Central Atlantic. The third area being watched is an area of disturbed weather a few hundred miles off the Southeast coast.. There, conditions are marginally favorable for tropical development during the next few days. The system should move off tho the northeast, staying off the East Coast, with some strengthening possible.

In the Eastern Pacific Ocean, an area of disturbed weather located about 275 miles south-southwest of the Cabo San Lucas, Mexico is being monitored for development. Some development is possible over the next few days, but the main threat from this system will be heavy rainfall across northwestern Mexico and southern portions of Arizona and California as the system moves toward the north-northwest.

In the Central Pacific Ocean, Tropical Depression Five-C is centered about 360 miles northwest of Johnston Island, moving toward the north-northeast at 15 mph. Top winds are near 35 mph, and some strengthening is possible over the next day or two. After that, gradual weakening is expected as the system moves across open waters.

Activity in the Northern Plains and Over Both Oceans

Showers and a few isolated thunderstorms started the morning in portions of the Northern Plains. As the day goes on, those showers and storms will move toward the east as a low pressure system and its warm front move northeast. One question will be if the cloud cover can subside and allow for enough surface heating. If the clouds do break, this will allow for stronger afternoon showers and thunderstorms to pop over eastern portions of North Dakota and South Dakota. Otherwise, the start of those pop-up showers and thunderstorms may be delayed and may actually occur in Minnesota. Any pop-up storms will be moving to the north or northeast through the evening hours and into Minnesota, Canada and possibly Northern Wisconsin overnight. With all this in mind, it’s entirely possible that most unstable CAPE values top out over 1000 J/kg and shear values reach over 30 to 40 knots and so the main threats for these storms will be strong winds, hail, heavy rain and a tornado or two. Behind the low pressure system for Sunday, cold air will be pouring in on strong winds from the north, cutting down the humidity.

wx image 1 — Severe thunderstorm potential for Saturday.

Meanwhile, the tropics continue to be active, especially in the Pacific Ocean with Hurricane Jimena continuing to move on a northwest track. Jimena is forecast to slowly weaken to a tropical storm tonight. By midweek, a trough is expected to dive south from the north-central Pacific. Because of this, some models, as well as the National Hurricane Center (NHC), indicate the storm may take a track toward the Hawaiian islands of Kauai and Oahu. This is not entirely set in stone with a few models also taking the storm straight west, to the north of Kauai. Also, the Western Pacific has a strong typhoon (Kilo) which has been a typhoon since it crossed the dateline as a hurricane and may continue churning in the Pacific for a while longer. A strong disturbance in the Eastern Pacific located a few hundred miles west of the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula may develop into a tropical system later today or Sunday. Post-tropical storm Kevin continues to weaken as it takes a track to the northwest, just west of the Baja California Peninsula. El Nino has had a strong effect on this year’s tropical activity with the strong positively anomalous warm sea surface temperatures supporting and enhancing the Pacific hurricanes and typhoons.

wx image — Current Activity in the Atlantic Ocean as of 5pm Saturday

In the Atlantic, Tropical Depression Fred continues to spin over the open ocean and will move toward the west-northwest. It is forecast to track toward the north and then to the northeast during the next two days. Tropical Depression Fred has been running into strong shear, which should continue to slowly downgrade Fred, as indicated by NHC. In addition, a new tropical storm (Grace) has formed in the Atlantic and is located 285 Miles southwest of the Cape Verde Islands. Grace will take a trek toward the west maintaining tropical storm strength the whole time. However, it may run into shear over the next 2 to 3 days, which could cause the storm to weaken or dissipate east of the Lesser Antilles. Previous storms Danny and Erica ran into problems with shear and dissipated because of it already this year. Shear has been a problem this year for storms in the Atlantic even as warm water has helped to awaken the Atlantic. Even though, El Nino helps to create favorable conditions in the Pacific Ocean, it helps to create unfavorable conditions in the Atlantic Ocean in the form of shear ripping apart any tropical systems that aren’t big or strong enough to maintain themselves with in it.

Trouble in Paradise?

A tropical system is expected to threaten the United States late this weekend and early next week. Unlike the past several days however, the state that is threatened is Hawaii, not Florida.

Hurricane Ignacio was centered about 550 miles east-southeast of Hilo, Hawaii at 2pm HST, moving toward the northwest at 9 mph. Maximum sustained winds were near 135 mph, making Ignacio a Category 4 Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale. Ignacio is expected to continue on a northwesterly track for the next few days, passing about 150 miles northeast of Hawaii Monday and Tuesday. It should gradually weaken as it approaches Hawaii.

Forecast track for Hurricane Ignacio as of 11am, HST August 29, 2015.

A tropical storm watch has been issued for the Big Island. Although Ignacio will remain offshore, since it is a large storm, tropical storm force winds may impact the Big Island Sunday night and Monday. Heavy rainfall is likely, especially on the windward side of the islands, with totals of 3-6 inches possible.

Ignacio isn’t the only tropical system being monitored in the Pacific. Hurricane Kilo and Hurricane Jimena are both over open waters.

Satellite photo from the NOAA showing Hurricanes Kilo, Ignacio, and Jimena. — Satellite photo from NOAA showing Hurricanes Kilo, Ignacio, and Jimena.

Kilo is centered about 400 miles west of Johnston Island, moving toward the west at 13 mph. It rapidly intensified Friday night and now has top winds near 125 mph. Some additional strengthening is possible over the next 24-36 hours as it turns more toward the northwest. Kilo should cross the International Date Line early next week, at which point it will be referred to as Typhoon Kilo.

Hurricane Jimena remains a powerful system in the Eastern Pacific with maximum sustained winds near 140 mph. As of 2pm PDT Saturday, Jimena was centered about 1300 miles west-southwest of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico, moving toward the west-northwest at 9 mph. Jimena is expected to continue on this track for the next few days with some fluctuations in intensity possible. Jimena is not a threat to land at this time.

To the north, a storm system that is not tropical in nature is bringing heavy rain and very strong winds to the Pacific Northwest. Up to half an inch of rain has fallen in western portions of Washington, and another 1-2″ is expected through Sunday. The rain is welcome news as dozens of wildfires continue to burn across the state, and any rainfall will assist the firefighting effort. What’s not welcome are the strong winds the storm is producing. Sustained winds of 30-50 mph have been reported, with gusts to 80 mph or higher.

Sustained #wind of 79 mph, with #gust to 87 on #DestructionIs. off #WA. #Coast. Fitting name for it. #wawx #windstorm

— NWS Seattle (@NWSSeattle) August 29, 2015

With the rain will come much cooler temperatures, which will also be welcome after a record-hot summer. Snow levels will drop to 8000 feet in the area, with several inches of snow possible across the higher peaks of the Cascades.

In the Atlantic, Tropical Storm Erika degenerated into an open wave earlier on Saturday. The combination of wind shear and the mountainous terrain of Hispaniola ripped the circulation apart. However, Erika’s story may not be over yet. What’s left of Erika will pass near or just south of Florida tonight and Sunday, bringing heavy rain and occasionally gusty winds to parts of Florida and Cuba. After that, it should move into the eastern Gulf of Mexico and turn more toward the north. Conditions should be more favorable in this region, and Erika could regenerate into a Tropical Storm early next week. Whether it redevelops or not, rainfall totals of 2-4 inches are expected across much of the Sunshine State through early next week. Flash flood watches are in effect for much of the region.

Five-day outlook for tropical cyclone development.

Well to the east, a well-defined tropical wave moved off the coast of Africa on Saturday. Conditions are favorable for development of this system, and it could become a tropical depression on Sunday. This system should head on a northwesterly track towards the Cape Verde Islands while slowly strengthening over the next few days.

Is Erika a Threat to Florida?

After bringing gusty winds and flooding rains to portions of the Lesser Antilles, Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico, Erika is passing south of Hispaniola this afternoon. As of 2pm EDT, Erika was centered just off the south coast of the Dominican Republic, and still stubbornly heading westward at 16 mph.

Satellite loop of Tropical Storm Erika from Midday August 28, 2015.

Erika remains weak, with maximum sustained winds near 50 mph. Strong wind shear and its proximity to the mountainous terrain of the Dominican Republic are keepING the storm weak.

For several days, computer models have been forecasting Erika to turn toward the west-northwest and eventually northwest, around a ridge of high pressure anchored over the central Atlantic Ocean. Erika has defied the models, and continues moving toward the west. As Erika nears the western edge of the high pressure ridge, and a trough of low pressure enters the Gulf of Mexico, Erika should finally start to turn more towards the northwest over the next 24 hours. Eventually, a turn toward the north should happen, bringing Erika closer to the state of Florida. Since Erika has traveled much farther to the west than anticipated, the risk to the Southeast has been greatly diminished. The main question now is – what part of Florida is at the greatest risk?

Computer model forecasts for Tropical Storm Erika's future track. — Computer model forecasts for Tropical Storm Erika’s future track.

Most of the models are now showing a threat to the Gulf Coast of Florida. However, most of these models also show Erika spending a lot of time over parts of Hispaniola and/or Cuba. Tropical systems depend on warm water (over 26 degrees C) to maintain their strength. A track over land could result in the dissipation of Erika before it even reaches Florida. Of the models that do keep the circulation of Erika intact, most of them keep it at tropical storm strength. As a result, it appears as though the biggest threat to Florida would be heavy rainfall and flooding. This is both good and bad, depending on which part of Florida you are talking about. Much of South Florida is in a severe drought, so rainfall would be welcome across the area. Meanwhile, the west coast of Florida, especially near Tampa Bay, has seen severe flooding and record rainfall this summer, so additional heavy rain would not be welcomed.

Erika has also produced flooding across portions of the eastern Caribbean. Over 12 inches of rain was reported in Dominica, with devastating flooding resulting in at least 12 deaths on the island. Across Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands, which have also been in a severe drought this year, rainfall totals were mainly under 2 inches. Erika did produce strong winds across the region, however. Some of the highest reported winds were as follows:

Location	Peak Sustained Wind	Peak Wind Gust
St. Croix, US Virgin Islands	38 mph	62 mph
Sint Maarten, Netherlands Antilles	36 mph	52 mph
St. Thomas, US Virgin Islands	33 mph	48 mph
Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic	25 mph	43 mph
Guadeloupe	25 mph	40 mph
Punta Cana, Dominican Republic	25 mph	40 mph

Elsewhere in the Atlantic, a tropical wave will move off the coast of Africa this weekend, and conditions could be favorable for it to slowly develop as it makes its way across the ocean.

The Pacific, especially the Central Pacific, remains active. Tropical Storm Kilo is centered about 160 miles west-northwest of Johnston Island, moving toward the west at 10 mph. Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph, and additional strengthening is expected. A tropical storm warning is in effect for Johnston Island, but conditions should start to improve over the next 12-24 hours as Kilo pulls away. Kilo is expected to turn more towards the northwest and strengthen into a hurricane as it heads across open waters towards the International Date Line.

Hurricane Ignacio is centered about 840 miles east-southeast of Hilo, Hawaii, moving toward the west-northwest at 10 mph. Maximum sustained winds are near 90 mph, and some additional strengthening is expected over the next 24-36 hours. After that, Ignacio should start to weaken and continue west-northwestward. The current track brings Ignacio just north of the Hawaiian Islands early next week. Residents of Hawaii should monitor Ignacio’s progress this weekend.

Satellite photo and forecast track for Hurricane Ignacio.

In the Eastern Pacific, Hurricane Jimena is centered about 1075 miles southwest of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico, moving toward the west at 12 mph. Maximum sustained winds are near 90 mph, and Jimena could strengthen into a major hurricane over the next 24-48 hours. Jimena will remain over open waters, and is no threat to any land areas.