Two pieces of energy will be phasing or combining this weekend off the West Coast. This will allow for a low pressure system to develop and intensify as the energy digs across southwestern United States. The storm is developing early enough that the storm should take a general northeast track after the storm ejects off the Rocky Mountains.
The two pieces of energy offshore before phasing over the weekend.After the pieces of energy have phased and storm begins intensifying and turning northeast early Monday.
It will have all of the precipitation types that winter normally features with snow north of the low pressure system’s track as well as a mixed bag of snow/sleet/freezing rain near the warm front as the warm and moist air runs into the cold air aloft. This cold air begins settling south from Canada early Tuesday, which is when the snow should fall north of the track. It’s way too early to looking at snowfall accumulation maps so outlooks are best at this point for the system. Strong winds are often associated with developing low pressure systems. This system is no different with forecast analogs based on the GFS forecast (America long range forecast model) showing a possibility of blizzard conditions over Iowa. Remember, blizzard conditions are more about wind and visibility than snowfall so that even just light blowing snow could still be designation as a blizzard as long as visibility is reduced.
Appreciable snowfall/sleet highlighted on day 4. Via the Weather Prediction Center.
In addition to the wintry precipitation types, this system will also produce some severe weather. Severe weather is forecast to begin occurring Monday Night across the Southern Plains and continue moving eastward as the cold front and warm sector (area where warm air resides) move east. The limiting factor in this case will be the instability, but there may be enough shear (turning of the wind with height or change in speed with height) to overcome any shortcomings that instability might have. With that in mind, a look at forecast analogs based on the GFS show the potential for severe weather to occur Tuesday in the Lower Mississippi Valley. The winds are strong aloft so wind damage and a few tornadoes are possible from this event as well as some hail. Flash flooding may also be possible under any thunderstorm.
Snapshot of the cold air(north and west of the low) and warm sector (south and east of the low). Notice the stronger winds (barbs with triangles indicating 50+ knot winds) in the area within the packed contours just southeast of the pressure system indicating stronger shear. This is at a level where air is at a pressure of 700mb. Via the College of DuPage.
Analog guidance based on the GFS models highlighting the placement of severe weather in the Lower Mississippi Valley for Tuesday. Via the Cooperative Institute for Precipitation Systems.Tuesday’s probability of severe weather over the Lower Mississippi Valley. This seems to correlate well with the CIPS analog guidance’s placement of severe weather. Via the Storm Prediction Center.
A low pressure system that formed on Saturday and will intensify into Monday as it moves from the Southern Plains into the Great Lakes and eventually into the Northeast by Monday night. Saturday night will see showers and thunderstorms in the Southern Plains ahead of, and especially along, a cold front extending southward from the system. That cold front will move from the Southern Plains and into the Tennessee River Valley and parts of the Southeast with strong winds and possibly a tornado being the main threats, along with flooding rainfall. As much as 2 to 5 inches of rainfall is forecast to fall by Monday morning in Northeast Texas and Eastern Oklahoma. The main limiting factor for the thunderstorms in the Southern Plains will be instability, especially with the morning cloud cover expected to remain around the region through the day. For the most part, this storm is expected to be mostly rainfall, but the outermost edges to the north and west of the storm may have a chance to change to snow, from Northern New Mexico and southeastern Colorado northeastward into Northern Minnesota. Some of the higher elevations in Colorado could see a foot or more of snow while the lower elevations could see 2 to 6 inches, especially in southern Colorado and northeastern New Mexico.
48 hour rainfall forecast. Note the higher amounts in northeast, Texas and western Oklahoma. Map provided by the National Weather Service’s Weather Prediction CenterSnowfall forecast. note the higher amounts in Colorado and New Mexico. Map provided by the National Weather Service’s Weather Prediction Center.
As the low pressure system intensifies, it will have quite a pull of warm and moist air from the south into the eastern half of the United States. This could result in dozens of record high temperatures and record high minimum temperatures being set across the region. In many places, the forecasts would exceed the current records by 5 to 10 degrees or more.
Record high minimum temperatures on Saturday night denoted by white circles. Map provided by WeatherBell.Record high temperatures expected for Sunday circled in white, especially over the eastern half of the US. Map provided by WeatherBell.Record high minimum temperatures on Sunday night denoted by white circles. Map provided by WeatherBell.
This pattern is almost the complete opposite of what we had at this time last year when anomalously warm temperatures were draped across most of western and central United States with below normal temperatures residing over most of Eastern United States.
In a similar setup to last week, a cold front dropping south from the Pacific Northwest to the Southwestern United States signifies the upper level jet from the polar regions dropping south. At the same time, another upper level jet resides in the subtropics. These two will combine or phase and create enough energy to develop a low pressure system just east of the Rockies. As the storm gets going it will be able to wrap in cooler air especially on its western side and snow will be able to develop in the Southern Rockies. A general 1 to 4 inches are possible from Nevada to Western Nebraska and Kansas with higher amounts possible in the higher elevations. Wind gusts should be around 45 mph, but could be as high as 65 mph along in the higher terrain.
Snowfall forecast through early Wednesday. (Note this isn’t quite the mean, but there are equal chances that the final outcome is larger or smaller than this total.) Via WPC.
Meanwhile, on the eastern side of the low pressure system, warm and moist flow will be able to create enough instability and very strong wind energy and low level moisture should be available for thunderstorm development. On Monday, the area with the greatest threat is within the Southern Plains. The day’s storm mode will probably include supercells, but should eventually evolve into a squall line type as the night overtakes the day. Tornadoes along with strong winds will be very possible with a few areas of hail with the day’s storms and very strong winds and heavy rain will be possible with the nighttime squall line as the earlier discussed phased jets allow for strong winds that can get brought to the surface in the intense vertical motion within rainfall and thunderstorms. For Tuesday, the area with the strongest storms shifts east as the low pressure system moves northeast and its attendant cold front slowly moves east. The cold front will be the main driver of the thunderstorms for this time period and while the squall line will be the main story for Tuesday, some supercells ahead of the cold front can’t be ruled out.
Severe weather outlook for Monday via SPC.Severe outlook for Tuesday via SPC.Monday helicity (top) and shear (bottom) forecast. 200 m2/s2 of helicity is enough for tornadoes. 30 kts of shear is enough for tornadoes.Monday shear (top) and helicity (bottom) forecast. 200 m2/s2 of helicity is enough for tornadoes. 30 kts of shear is enough for tornadoes.
In addition to the severe weather and snow, rain is also possible near the low pressure system and both the warm front and cold front during this time period, especially in any thunderstorms. Because of the way the combined jet stream is situated and the added energy of the phased jet streams, the heavy rain will be situated in the lower Plains and lower Mississippi Valley regions. Over 5 inches is forecasted especially in the lower Mississippi Valley region, but that rainfall total could be higher in any thunderstorm. Furthermore, previous consistent rainfall over northeast Texas allowed rivers within the headwater basins of the Neches and Sabine Rivers to remain swollen so the National Weather Service and River Forecast Center in the Northeast Texas area have indicated that those rivers in that basin could flood during this upcoming event.
Areas to watch for flooding during upcoming rain storm. Via the West Gulf River Forecast Center.
A strong storm system moving out of the West will bring heavy snow to the Rockies, severe weather to the Mississippi Valley, and maybe even some lake-effect snow to parts of the Great Lakes before the week is over.
A developing low pressure area will move across the Rockies and into the Central Plains today. Over the weekend this storm brought beneficial rainfall to California, with snowfall across the higher elevations of the Cascades and Sierra Nevada. Up to an inch of rainfall fell across the San Francisco Bay area, with locally heavier amounts of 1-2 inches in Santa Clara and Santa Cruz Counties. Farther inland, 1-2 inches of rain was reported across much of the Central Valley. Strong thunderstorms were also reported across the area, with a tornado warning issued Monday evening for the suburbs of Sacramento, though no tornado was ever confirmed to have touched down. In the Sierra Nevada, as much as 6-12 inches of snow was reported as of Tuesday morning. At the National Weather Service office in Reno, Nevada, four inches was reported in one hour Monday evening.
As the system moves eastward, snow is expected across much of the Intermountain West today into Wednesday. The heaviest snow is expected across the mountains of Utah and Colorado, where 8-16 inches may accumulate. Rain will change over to snow across the western Plains as colder air filters in behind the system. Snowfall totals of 3-5 inches are expected across western portions of Nebraska and Kansas as well as eastern Colorado, including the Denver Metropolitan Area. The snow will be accompanied by northerly winds of 20-40 mph, gusting to 60 mph at times. As a result, blizzard warnings are in effect for much of this region, with high wind warnings for much of the remainder of the Central and Southern Plains.
Watches and Warnings in effect for the Central US as of Midday Tuesday November 10. Blizzard Warnings are in Red, Winter Storm Warnings are in Pink, Winter Storm Watches in Dark Blue, Winter Weather Advisories are in Purple, High Wind Warnings are in Light Brown, and High Wind Watches in Dark Brown.
Southerly winds ahead of the storm will continue to draw warm, moist air northward from the Gulf of Mexico. With the clash of airmasses, strong to severe thunderstorms will likely develop ahead of the cold front on Wednesday from northeastern Texas into much of the Mississippi Valley. Strong winds, hail, and tornadoes are the main threats with any storms that do develop. The best chance for tornadoes looks to be across portions of Iowa, Illinois, and Missouri, where a few strong tornadoes are possible. Just to the north of this area, heavy rain is likely from eastern Nebraska and northern Iowa into southern Minnesota and much of Wisconsin. Rainfall totals of 1-2 inches are possible across this area.
Severe Weather Outlook for Wednesday November 11 from the Storm Prediction Center.
By Thursday, the storm will move into southern Canada, dragging a cold front across the East. This will produce showers across much of the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic states, with gusty westerly winds ushering in cooler air behind the front. As these westerly winds blow over the relatively warmer Great Lakes, some lake-effect rain or snow showers will likely develop on Friday and Saturday. Some snowfall accumulation is possible, mainly over the Tug Hill Plateau of northern New York and parts of the Southern Tier in western New York. A few inches of accumulation are possible, with heavier amounts in the normally favored locations.
Snowfall forecast for Friday and Saturday (November 13-14) from the GFS model. Image courtest of WeatherBell.
A strong easterly wind in the low levels of the atmosphere has brought much-needed rainfall into the Southeast. In some places,the rain was heavy enough to result in flooding across eastern portions of North Carolina and South Carolina. Late Thursday night, low level winds briefly turned to the southeast providing spin in the atmosphere and allowing for an EF-2 tornado to occur in South Carolina. Numerous homes, buildings and trees were damaged as a result and roads were blocked before clean-up started. It is amazing that no injuries or fatalities were reported with this tornado after seeing the damage and knowing that it occurred overnight.
Anomalously strong easterly winds shown with the horizontal component on top
Severe warnings and storm reports. Red (green) polygons and squares are the tornado (flood) warnings and reports.
This area of strong easterly winds will continue to slowly move up the East Coast, and reside across the Mid-Atlantic states and the waters south of New England by late Tuesday as a departing high pressure clears the way for its northward movement. However, dry air that has been in place over Southern New England and more of a large scale shift to southerly winds ahead of an approaching cold front should allow for less intense rainfall as the strong easterly winds shift offshore.
Meanwhile, in the tropics, the Atlantic continues to remain active with Tropical Depression Ida centered about 1115 miles east-northeast of the northern Leeward Islands. as of late Saturday afternoon Currently, Ida has a large area of circulation, but the convection has been shoved east of its exposed low level center as a result of strong westerly shear. However, the shear is expected to lessen tomorrow and at least one model shows some strengthening possible. Other models indicated that Ida could dissipate over the next few days as a cold front starts to approach it from the west. Ida is currently moving northwestward at 8 mph today, but it is expected take a turn more toward the west-northwest tonight and then southwestward late tomorrow as an area of high pressure builds in north of the system. Elsewhere, an area of disturbed weather is expected to crossed Central America into the central Gulf of Mexico and interacts with a low pressure system nearby.There is a low chance that this could develop into a tropical system over the Gulf of Mexico early next week. A second area of disturbed weather is located across the western Atlantic Ocean, but upper level winds remain unfavorable for development and further development is unlikely at this time.
Forecast track for Tropical Storm Niala
In the Central Pacific, Tropical Storm Niala was centered about 270 miles southeast of Hilo, Hawaii at midday. A tropical storm watch is in effect for the Big island of Hawaii as the storm approaches from the east. Niala is expected to pass south of the Islands, but possibly close enough to impact the Big Island. There is also the possibility that Niala could weaken fairly quickly, minimizing any impact on Hawaii. A turn to the southwest is then forecast over the next 36 to 48 hours.
Showers and a few isolated thunderstorms started the morning in portions of the Northern Plains. As the day goes on, those showers and storms will move toward the east as a low pressure system and its warm front move northeast. One question will be if the cloud cover can subside and allow for enough surface heating. If the clouds do break, this will allow for stronger afternoon showers and thunderstorms to pop over eastern portions of North Dakota and South Dakota. Otherwise, the start of those pop-up showers and thunderstorms may be delayed and may actually occur in Minnesota. Any pop-up storms will be moving to the north or northeast through the evening hours and into Minnesota, Canada and possibly Northern Wisconsin overnight. With all this in mind, it’s entirely possible that most unstable CAPE values top out over 1000 J/kg and shear values reach over 30 to 40 knots and so the main threats for these storms will be strong winds, hail, heavy rain and a tornado or two. Behind the low pressure system for Sunday, cold air will be pouring in on strong winds from the north, cutting down the humidity.
Severe thunderstorm potential for Saturday.
Meanwhile, the tropics continue to be active, especially in the Pacific Ocean with Hurricane Jimena continuing to move on a northwest track. Jimena is forecast to slowly weaken to a tropical storm tonight. By midweek, a trough is expected to dive south from the north-central Pacific. Because of this, some models, as well as the National Hurricane Center (NHC), indicate the storm may take a track toward the Hawaiian islands of Kauai and Oahu. This is not entirely set in stone with a few models also taking the storm straight west, to the north of Kauai. Also, the Western Pacific has a strong typhoon (Kilo) which has been a typhoon since it crossed the dateline as a hurricane and may continue churning in the Pacific for a while longer. A strong disturbance in the Eastern Pacific located a few hundred miles west of the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula may develop into a tropical system later today or Sunday. Post-tropical storm Kevin continues to weaken as it takes a track to the northwest, just west of the Baja California Peninsula. El Nino has had a strong effect on this year’s tropical activity with the strong positively anomalous warm sea surface temperatures supporting and enhancing the Pacific hurricanes and typhoons.
Current Activity in the Atlantic Ocean as of 5pm Saturday
In the Atlantic, Tropical Depression Fred continues to spin over the open ocean and will move toward the west-northwest. It is forecast to track toward the north and then to the northeast during the next two days. Tropical Depression Fred has been running into strong shear, which should continue to slowly downgrade Fred, as indicated by NHC. In addition, a new tropical storm (Grace) has formed in the Atlantic and is located 285 Miles southwest of the Cape Verde Islands. Grace will take a trek toward the west maintaining tropical storm strength the whole time. However, it may run into shear over the next 2 to 3 days, which could cause the storm to weaken or dissipate east of the Lesser Antilles. Previous storms Danny and Erica ran into problems with shear and dissipated because of it already this year. Shear has been a problem this year for storms in the Atlantic even as warm water has helped to awaken the Atlantic. Even though, El Nino helps to create favorable conditions in the Pacific Ocean, it helps to create unfavorable conditions in the Atlantic Ocean in the form of shear ripping apart any tropical systems that aren’t big or strong enough to maintain themselves with in it.
A strong cold front will move across the Northeast on Tuesday, producing showers and thunderstorms across the region, and bringing much drier air into the region.
Showers and a few thunderstorms are expected across the region in the morning. If enough clearing develops after these move out, the atmosphere could destabilize enough to trigger another round of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon, and some of these could become strong to severe. The Storm Prediction Center is forecasting a marginal risk of severe storms across much of central and southern New England for Tuesday. The main threats with any storms that develop will be heavy rainfall, strong winds, and frequent lightning.
Behind the front, much drier air will settle in, after more than a week with dewpoints of 70 degrees or higher. Temperatures will remain seasonably warm though, unlike areas to the west, where much cooler conditions were noted behind the front. In Rapid City, South Dakota, the low temperature dropped to 41 degrees Monday morning, breaking the old record of 43 degrees, set in 1972. Cheyenne, Wyoming dropped to 39 degrees Monday morning, which also broke a record. The old record low was 40, set 119 years ago in 1896. Several locations in Montana dropped below freezing Sunday morning, with frost reported across parts of the area.
Meanwhile, the tropics remain active. Tropical Storm Erika has formed about 955 miles east of the Leeward Islands. Erika has maximum sustained winds near 45 mph, and is moving toward the west at 20 mph. Erika is expected to slowly strengthen over the next 24-48 hours while turning a bit more towards the west-northwest. The current forecast brings Erika very close to the Northern Leeward Islands Wednesday night or early Thursday. Watches will likely be issued for some of the islands early Tuesday. Beyond that, there is plenty of uncertainty as to where Erika will head and how strong it will be. Some of the models have Erika dissipate over the eastern Caribbean, similar to what happened to Danny, over the next few days, others strengthen it into a hurricane and send it towards the Bahamas.
Forecast track for Tropical Storm Erika as of 11pm EDT August 24, 2015
Since Danny fizzled while it was crossing the Leeward Islands, it brought only a few showers to the Virgin Islands. This region has been in a severe drought for the past several months, and it was hoped that Danny would bring some much -needed rain to the region to help put a dent in the drought. St. Croix, USVI has received only 7.31 inches of rain in 2015, a little over 12 inches below the normal total of 12.33 inches. Things haven’t been much better in San Juan, Puerto Rico, where 21.8 inches of rain have fallen this year, 10.38 inches below the normal for the year-to-date.
Meanwhile, in the Eastern Pacific, Tropical Depression 12-E formed late Monday. The depression was centered about 1535 miles west-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California with top winds near 35 mph. The depression was drifting toward the west at 3 mph, but should start to turn more towards the west-northwest and pick up speed over the next few days. The system should strengthen into a tropical storm over the next day or so and head out over the open waters of the Pacific, not threatening any land areas. Another tropical wave south of Mexico could develop into a tropical depression later this week as it moves across open waters.
Forecast track for Tropical Depression 12-E as of 8pm PDT August 24, 2015.
In the Central Pacific, Tropical Depression Kilo has top winds near 30 mph and is centered about 150 miles east of Johnston Island. It is expected to drift toward the north then turn toward the west over the next few days with some slow strengthening expected. Kilo is not expected to impact any land areas for the next few days. Meanwhile, Hurricane Loke is located over 1000 miles west-northwest of the main Hawaiian Islands, crossing the Pearl and Hermes Atoll with top winds near 75 mph. Loke is expected to turn towards the north-northwest and head out over the open waters of the North Pacific while losing tropical characteristics over the next few days.
In the Western Pacific, Typhoon Goni has crossed southwestern Japan and is moving into the Sea of Japan Tuesday afternoon. Goni still has top winds near 95 mph, but is expected to steadily weaken as it crosses the Sea of Japan and heads toward far eastern Russia. Goni produced a wind gust to 102 mph in Makuazaki when it made landfall on Monday. On Sunday, Goni crossed the Ryukyu islands, southwest of the Japanese mainland. As the storm passed directly over Ishigakijima, it produced a wind gust to 159 mph.
Tropical Storm Danny is the main weather story for today. However, after registering a category 3 rating for winds in a previous hurricane hunter recon mission, it is only a tropical storm and continues to decrease in strength. This is evidenced by the storm’s central pressure rising to just above 1000 mb this afternoon, significantly higher than 2 days ago. While the forecast track is still a little uncertain, the current forecast from the National Hurricane Center (NHC) is for the storm to take a track to the west, just south of Puerto Rico overnight Monday. This is just after a recent track change from toward the northwest to toward the west. The storm will continue to weaken and should be a tropical depression after crossing the Leeward Islands according to NHC’s forecast. Currently the NHC has posted Tropical Storm Warnings for Antigua, Barbuda, Montserrat, St. Kitts, Nevis and Anguilla and Tropical Storm Watches for Saba and St. Eustatius, St. Maarten, Puerto Rico, Vieques, Culebra, and the US Virgin Islands.
The storm itself is about 165 miles east-southeast of Guadeloupe and 210 miles east-southeast of Antigua. The maximum sustained winds within the storm are 40 MPH and will continue moving west at 16 MPH. Threats for this storm will be for rain from 2 to 4 inches of rain through Tuesday and wind up to tropical storm force in warned areas. A tropical storm watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the next 48 hours. However, a tropical storm warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected within the next 36 hours and action to prepare for for the storm should be taken.
The main problem with this storm, along with dry air nearby, has been that there has been a strong field of shear that has eroded the southwestern side of any strong thunderstorms.
Other systems are tagged by the NHC in the Atlantic Ocean closer to Africa. The one with the best chance of developing is located 800 miles west of the Cape Verde Islands and has a chance for development into a tropical depression toward mid-week. Whether it has any impact on land is yet to be determined. This system continues to move to the west at 20 MPH.
A storm just southeast of the East Coast is also tagged by the NHC with a possibility of development and is currently affecting portions of the East Coast with cloud cover and humidity at the very least. Showers and a few storms are moving inland to the US from the storm itself as well. This storm has 0% chance of development.
In addition to the tropical weather, severe weather is possible today as the front that produced severe weather over the Northern Plains yesterday moves over Michigan and portions of the Ohio River Valley today. A tornado or severe thunderstorm watch has not been issued over this area, however, strong winds, a tornado and hail are all possible with today’s storms. It must be said that SPC’s chances of the above threats over Michigan and portions of the Ohio River Valley are much lower than yesterday’s.
Also, afternoon showers and storms with the threat of strong winds may occur over portions of Southeastern US. Similar to yesterday, strong winds follow the front and will reside around an adjacent low pressure system as hinted at by wind advisories over portions of the Northern Plains.
In addition, dry weather continues over portions of the Western United States and Alaska as forest fires continue to burn. Larger fires are in California, Washington, Idaho, Oregon and Montana. This year, according to the National Interagency Coordination Center, 7,448,217 acres are burning, which is above the year-to-date 10 year average of 5,350,800 acres. Much of this has been caused by warm and dry weather over the Western US along with thunderstorms that have a lack of rain, but plenty of fire-sparking lightning.
A strong cold front will help to trigger strong to severe thunderstorms across portions of the Plains States and Mississippi Valley today. Showers and thunderstorms are already moving across parts of the North Dakota and Minnesota, with a few reports of hail up to one inch in diameter. As the front marches eastward, conditions will become more favorable for severe thunderstorms from the Upper Mississippi Valley into the Central and Southern Plains. The main threats are large hail, wind gusts to 70 mph or more and tornadoes.
Severe Weather Outlook for August 22, 2015 from the Storm Prediction Center.
Behind the front, strong northwest winds will usher unseasonably cool air into the Northern and Central Rockies and western portions of the Plains states. Wind advisories and high wind warnings are in effect for much of the region as wind gusts of up to 50-60 mph are likely today and Sunday. Some record low temperatures are possible Sunday morning in parts of Montana, Wyoming, and western portions of the Dakotas and Nebraska as low temperatures are expected to tumble into the 30s and lower 40s. Frost advisories have been issued for parts of western Montana.
Meanwhile, Hurricane Danny is starting to steadily weaken while approaching the Caribbean. As early early Saturday afternoon Danny was centered a little more than 600 miles east of the Leeward Islands, moving toward the west-northwest at 12 mph. After peaking as a Category 3 hurricane on Friday with winds near 115 mph, dry air and increasing wind shear have weakened Danny to a Category 1 with top winds near 85 mph, and additional weakening is expected. Tropical Storm Watches have been issued for much of the Northeastern Caribbean, including the islands of Antigua, Anguilla, Barbuda, Montserrat, St. Kitts, Nevis, Saba, St. Eustasius, St. Maarten, Guadeloupe, St. Barthelemy, and St. Martin. A tropical storm watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the next 48 hours.
Current forecast track for Hurricane Danny
Danny is expected to weaken into a tropical storm before crossing the islands. It should continue to weaken as it moves towards the US Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico. Some of the forecast models are showing the possibility that it could dissipate as it nears Puerto Rico. Others keep it as a very weak storm which then moves near Hispaniola and into the Bahamas, where conditions could become more favorable for it to start to strengthen again.
While the future track and strength are still very uncertain, one thing that is more likely is that Danny will bring beneficial rainfall to portions of the US Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico. The region has been in the midst of a severe drought for much of the year, with less than half of the normal yearly rainfall in some areas. While Danny won’t bring drought-busting rainfall to the region, every little bit that falls is beneficial.
Elsewhere in the Atlantic, a weak area of low pressure about 150-200 miles north-northwest of Bermuda will likely head out to sea over the next few days. There is a slight chance it could acquire tropical characteristics and become a tropical storm, but this seems unlikely. Much farther to the southeast, a tropical wave passing south of the Cape Verde Islands is producing disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity. As it crosses the Atlantic over the next several days, conditions should become more favorable for the system to develop. Yet another tropical wave will move off the Coast of Africa this weekend. This system could also start to get better organized as it crosses the Atlantic over the next week.
In the Central Pacific, both Kilo and Loke weakened to Tropical Depressions overnight, but they should both re-strengthen into tropical storms over the next day or two. Loke should remain a tropical storm while heading northward, possibly impacting Midway Island early next week. Kilo is the more immediate threat. Kilo should head northwestward while slowly strengthening over the next 24 hours. Sometime after that, a turn toward the north and eventually northeast is expected. Exactly where the storm makes the turn is critical to determining if there is a threat to parts of Hawaii. Right now it looks like there will only be a threaat to some of the westernmost islands, but if it turns earlier, that will change things. Conditions are favorable for Kilo to become a hurricane early next week.
Current satellite phot and expected track of Tropical Depression Kilo from the Central Pacific Hurricane Center.
Farther west, there are still two typhoons in the Western Pacific Ocean. Typhoon Atsani is expected to steadily weaken while heading out to sea well south and east of Japan. Tyhpoon Goni will bring gusty winds and heavy rain to parts of Taiwan today, before setting its sights on Okinawa and southwestern Japan tomorrow and Monday.
Strong to severe thunderstorms are expected across the Great Lakes today, with the threat shifting into portions of the Northeast and Ohio Valley on Tuesday.
Low pressure will move into southern Canada today, with a warm front out ahead of it. After the front moves through, temperatures will rise well into the 80s, with dewpoints into the upper 60s and 70s. At the same time, a cold front will be sweeping southward across the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest, triggering showers and thunderstorms across the area.
Late Sunday, this front produced severe weather across the Northern Plains, with baseball sized hail across portions of Montana and the Dakotas. There were also dozens of reports of strong winds, including a gust to 122 mph near Hayes, SD that destroyed grain bins and moved an office building. That area of storms, known as a Mesoscale Convective System or MCS, moved into the Great Lakes this morning and will continue eastward. New thunderstorms will likely develop ahead of that cold front this afternoon, and move across the same areas getting hit hard this morning. Some of these storms will contain large hail, wind gusts in excess of 80 mph, and likely a few tornadoes. The area most at risk includes the metropolitan areas of Chicago, Milwaukee, and Detroit.
Model Simulation of what the radar will look like this afternoon. (Image from Weatherbell)
On Tuesday, as the cold front moves south and east, the severe weather threat will shift into the Northeast and Ohio Valley. The initial area of thunderstorms (MCS) will move across New York and New England overnight and into Tuesday morning. Once it moves through, skies will start to clear out a bit, and showers and thunderstorms will redevelop ahead of the cold front. Some of these storms will become strong to severe, with hail, strong winds, and a few tornadoes possible once again. The area most at risk on Tuesday includes the metropolitan areas of Cincinnati, Pittsburgh, Washington, Philadelphia, and New York City.
Across New England, the severe weather threat on Tuesday will be dependent on how much sunshine develops after the initial area of thunderstorms moves through in the morning. Strong to severe storms are likely across western portions of New England, but they should start to weaken as they move eastward. Southerly winds blowing off the relatively cool Atlantic will help stabilize the atmosphere across eastern portions of New England, helping the storms lose their punch as they approach Boston and Providence.
Behind this cold front, comfortable conditions will settle into the Midwest on Tuesday and the Northeast on Wednesday, with high temperatures mainly in the 70s to lower 80s and dewpoints in the upper 40s and 50s.
![[Image of 5-day forecast of predicted track, and coastal areas under a warning or a watch]](http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT04/refresh/AL0415W5_sm2+gif/204324W_sm.gif)
