Category: Extreme Temperatures

The Week Ahead: December 6-12, 2021

The weather pattern is fairly active across the nation right now, and there are several areas we’re keeping an eye on.

The pattern has become very active over the past several days across the nation. Image provided by NOAA.

 

We’ll start off in the Pacific, where a low pressure system will bring a wide variety of impacts to the Hawaiian Islands today and tomorrow. Heavy rain will lead to widespread flooding across the islands, with strong winds also creating damage. Rainfall totals of 3-6 inches and locally heavier are expected through Wednesday. Flood Watches are in effect for much of the region. High Wind Warnings and Wind Advisories are also in effect, for sustained winds of 20-40 mph, with gusts of 50 to 60 mph possible. Along west-facing shorelines, waves of 8 to 12 feet will batter the beaches, where High Surf Advisories are in effect. If that wasn’t enough, across the higher summits of the Big Island, a Blizzard Warning remains in effect. Heavy snow will continue this morning with several more inches of accumulation possible. The snow will be accompanied by winds gusting as high as 80 mph, resulting in blizzard conditions.

Very heavy rain is likely across the Hawaiian Islands for the next few days. Image provided by weathermodels.com

 

Next, we’ll stay in the Pacific, but head northward to Alaska. A strong low pressure system is sitting just west of the the state early this morning, and it is having a significant impact on the region. Blizzard warnings are in effect for parts of western and southern Alaska. Heavy snow will be accompanied by winds gusting as high as 70 mph. The strong winds, combined with astronomically high tides, will result in flooding along the coast as well. Heavy snow is also likely for many locations, with up to 8-16 inches for many areas, and even more in some spots. Across the higher elevations, several feet of snow are expected. The only positive to this is that the brutally cold weather that much of the state experienced in November has been replaced by temperatures that are well above normal, though bitterly cold air will likely return behind this storm system.

A powerful storm system will impact Alaska over the next few days. Image provided by NOAA.

 

Across the Lower 48 States, the low pressure system moving into the Mississippi Valley this morning will garner the most attention today. It produced heavy snow in the Northern Plains and severe weather in the Mississippi Valley on Sunday. It will move into southern Canada today, dragging a strong cold front eastward. Ahead of the front, unseasonably mild air is expected across the East Coast, with temperatures topping 60 as far north as New England, and 70s into the Mid-Atlantic states. The warmth will be accompanied by some showers and gusty winds. Wind advisories are in effect for parts of the Northeast. Along the Gulf Coast and into the Lower Mississippi Valley, some strong to severe thunderstorms are possible ahead of the cold front. Some of the storms may produce strong winds, hail, heavy downpours, and possibly a few tornadoes.

Severe weather is possible in parts of the Lower Mississippi Valley today. Image provided by the Storm Prediction Center.

 

Another system will quickly follow for the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast on Wednesday. There’s quite a bit of uncertainty with the evolution of this second storm, but it has the potential to bring the first accumulating snow of the season to the I-95 corridor. While heavy snow seems unlikely at this point, some light to perhaps moderate accumulations are possible, which would result in travel issues for the heavily-populated region.

There is not a lot of agreement among the forecast models on what impacts the midweek storm will have and where they will be. Images provided by Pivotal Weather.

 

The other area we’re watching is the Southern Plains and Texas. After some record warmth over the past several days, cooler weather will settle in today and into Tuesday. However, another big warmup is expected later this week. Some record high temperatures are possible across the region on Thursday, but Friday looks to be the warmest day, with numerous records likely to be broken as highs soar well into the 70s and 80s, with 90s possible in southern Texas.

Numerous record high temperatures are in jeopardy by Friday as very warm air settles into the Southern Plains and Gulf Coast. Image provided by Weathermodels.com

 

On the flip side, very chilly air will settle into the Dakotas and Minnesota today in the wake of yesterday’s snowstorm. High temperatures will only reach the single numbers for parts of the region today, with some locations possibly staying below zero all day. Temperatures should start to moderate by tomorrow across the area.

The Week Ahead: November 29 – December 5, 2021

Once again, a majority of the nation will be spared from major storminess during much of the upcoming week.

The week is starting off without any significant storm systems on the surface map. Image provided by NOAA.

 

As is typically the case at this time of year, the Northwest will be the exception to the rule when it comes to quiet conditions. As one system pulls away from the region today, another one will move in from the Pacific later Tuesday into Wednesday with rain, some of it heavy, and higher elevation snow in parts of Washington and Oregon. While this rainfall won’t be anywhere near the magnitude of some recent storms, some locations, especially in the Olympic Peninsula, could see 1-3 inches of rain, which may lead to some flooding.

Some heavy rain is possible across parts of Washington State on Tuesday. Image provided by Weathermodels.com

 

The other main story this week will be unseasonably warm weather for a large portion of the nation, especially west of the Mississippi River, for the next several days. Much of this region will have temperatures that are 15 to 30 degrees above normal through at least Thursday or Friday. Dozens of record highs are likely to be set from the Plains states into the Rockies and the Pacific Northwest, especially Wednesday and Thursday. High temperatures could top 70 as far north as parts of South Dakota and Wyoming by Thursday.

Unseasonably warm weather is expected across much of the nation this week. Loop provided by Pivotal Weather.

 

A cold front will drop southward out of Canada toward the end of the week, bringing an end to the warm spell. A wave of low pressure riding along the front may produce some light to perhaps moderate snow from the Northern Plains into the Great Lakes next weekend.

The Week Ahead: November 22-28, 2021

The weather can often have an adverse impact on Thanksgiving travel, but that doesn’t look to be the case this year.

The cold front extended from the Great Lakes to Texas will be the focus of attention today. Image provided by NOAA.

 

Fairly quiet weather is expected across much of the nation during the upcoming week. A cold front will move off the East Coast today with some showers ahead of it otherwise, most of the nation will be dry into Wednesday. By Wednesday night and Thanksgiving, another cold front will be moving across Great Lakes and Ohio and Mississippi Valleys, producing some showers, with snow showers in parts of Great Lakes, but none of the precipitation looks heavy except possibly from Texas into the Lower Mississippi Valley, so it shouldn’t impact travel too much. As that front reaches the East Coast on Friday it will produce some showers, with lake-effect snow showers behind it, downwind of the Great Lakes. Our next system will also be bringing some light rain and mountain snow into parts of the Northwest.

Except for the Northwest and Lower Mississippi Valley, much of the nation won’t see much precipitation this week. Image provided by Weathermodels.com

 

Temperatures will be riding a rollercoaster this week with chilly air in the East to start the week, with very mild air across the Plains and Rockies. While the East Coast will remain chilly into Wednesday, that warm air over the Plains will spread into the Mississippi and Ohio Valleys as well as the Southern Plains by mid-week, while much cooler air returns to the West and especially into the Northern Plains. By the end of the week, the East will turn much milder for a day or two while the cold air settles into the Great Lakes and Mississippi Valley, before reaching the East Coast next weekend. Meanwhile, another significant warmup is expected in parts of the Plains and the Rockies as well as much of the West.

Temperatures will alternate between quite mild and quite chilly over much of the nation this week. Loop provided by Pivotal Weather.

 

While temperatures have been variable across the Lower 48, very cold air has settled into Alaska over the last week or two, and it will remain in place for the next week at least. Temperatures over the next 7 days will average 15-35 degrees below normal across much of the state. Parts of northern Alaska could see low temperatures dropping to -40F or colder over the next several nights.

Bitterly cold air will remain in place across Alaska for most of the upcoming week. Image provided by WeatherBell.

 

The Week Ahead: November 15-21, 2021

A quiet weather pattern is expected for a large portion of the nation for much of the upcoming week.

There are several frontal systems on the surface map to start the week, but no big storms. Image provided by NOAA.

 

A low pressure system moving in from the Pacific will bring some heavy rain, higher elevation snow, and strong winds to the Northwest and Northern Rockies over the next few days. Flood Watches and Warnings are in effect for parts of western Washington. Rainfall totals of 1-3 inches and locally heavier are expected in parts of Washington, Oregon, and northern California. Across the higher elevations of the Cascades, snowfall totals of 1-2 feet are likely, with some heavier amounts. As the system pushes inland, valley rain and mountain snow will move into the Northern Rockies, where snowfall totals of 4-8 inches and locally heavier are possible. The bigger story here will be strong winds for Monday and Tuesday. High Wind Watches and Warnings are in effect for much of the region. Sustained winds of 20-40 mph are likely, especially in parts of Montana and Wyoming, with gusts of 50-70 mph common. Along the Rocky Mountain Front in Montana, some gusts could approach 100 mph. The system will make its way eastward along the US/Canada border during the week, with a frontal system trailing the system producing some light rain or snow, especially as it reaches the East Coast by late in the week.

Strong winds are expected from the Northwest into the Northern Rockies. Image provided by WeatherBell.

 

Temperatures both ahead of and behind that system will be the other big story this week. Temperatures ahead of this system will be 15-25 degrees above normal across much of the West on Monday, shifting into the Rockies and the Plains on Tuesday, the Mississippi and Ohio Valleys on Wednesday, and reaching the East Coast by Thursday. Some record highs are possible on Monday in parts on the Southwest and also in the Plains on Monday, with several records possible on Tuesday from the Southern Plains into the Texas Panhandle. Behind the system, much cooler weather is expected. While temperatures won’t be exceptionally cold, they’ll be 5-10 degrees below normal for a day or two before moderating once again.

The GFS shows the warm air progressing across the nation followed by much cooler weather. Loop provided by Pivotal Weather.

 

A preliminary look at the weather for travel the day before Thanksgiving and Thanksgiving Day doesn’t show much in the way of impactful conditions at this point, but a weak system could bring some light rain or snow to areas from the Northern Plains into the Great Lakes and Northeast.

The Week Ahead: November 8-14, 2021

A low pressure system moving into the West Coast today will impact the weather across much of the nation during the upcoming week.

The low pressure system currently in the Gulf of Alaska will be the big weather-maker this week. Image provided by NOAA.

 

Low pressure will move out of the Pacific and into the West Coast over the next day or two, spreading rain, some of it heavy, into the Pacific Northwest as well as northern and central portions of California. While this storm will be nowhere near the magnitude of some of the storms they’ve already seen this year, rainfall totals of 1-2 inches and locally heavier in some areas may result in localized flooding. The rian will be accompanied by gusty winds. Wind Advisories and High Wind Warnings have been issued for parts of the region. Wind gusts of 40-50 mph will be common, possibly resulting in damage and power outages in some areas. Across the higher elevations of the Cascades and the Sierra Nevada, heavy snow is likely, with many areas receiving more than a foot by the time everything winds down later Tuesday.

Heavy rain is expected across parts of the Northwest and California over the next day or two. Image provided by WeatherBell.

 

This system will weaken a bit as it moves into the Rockies by midweek, where several inches of snow is still expected. By Thursday, the system will intensify again as it moves into the Plains states. As it draws in some moisture from the Gulf of Mexico, it could produce some severe weather across parts of the Central and Southern Plains and into the Mississippi Valley ;ater Wednesday and Thursday. To the north, it will likely produce the first snowstorm of the season across the Dakotas and into parts of Minnesota late this week. Snowfall totals of 3-6 inches will be possible in parts of the region.

Several inches of snow may fall in parts of the Dakotas and Minnesota late this week. Image provided by Weathermodels.com

 

By the end of the week, the low pressure system will stall out near the Great Lakes, but ahead of it, a frontal system will draw moisture northward, bringing a period of heavy rain from the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys into the Mid-Atlantic states and the Northeast from Friday into Saturday.

The other thing we’re paying attention to this week will be the temperature swing we’re expecting. Temperatures will run 6-12 degrees above normal across parts of the Plains states eastward to the Great Lakes over the next couple of days before the core of the milder air shifts to the East Coast later this week. Meanwhile, behind the storm system, a pool of cooler air, with readings of 4-8 degrees below normal, will move into the West during the next 2-3 days. By the time that air moves into the Plains it will intensify  with temperatures running 6-12 degrees below normal across the Plains on Friday and further east by next weekend.

Mild air dominates the nation at the start of the week, but much cooler air eventually settles in. Loop provided by Pivotal Weather.

 

Taking a quick look ahead to the following week, there are some indications that a much cooler weather pattern may move into parts of the central and eastern US for the middle of the month.

The Week Ahead: November 1-7, 2021

After a fairly active week last week, a much more quiet pattern is expected for the upcoming week.

The most noteworthy feature on the weather map this morning is the strong cold front from the Great Lakes to Texas, Image provided by NOAA.

 

The biggest thing we’re keeping an eye on this week is the cold air that will spread across the eastern two-thirds of the nation. A strong cold front will move off the East Coast Monday morning, with the tail end of the front stalling out from the Carolinas to northern Texas. Behind this front, much cooler air has already settled into parts of the Plains states and Mississippi Valley, and it will continue to spread eastward. A series of weak cold fronts dropping out of Canada will help to usher progressively cooler into parts of the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic states as well. Temperatures will be 6-12 degrees below normal from the Northern and Central Plains into parts of the Upper Midwest for Monday and Tuesday, with the core of the colder air shifting into the region from the Southern Plains into the eastern Great Lakes for Wednesday into Friday, and the East Coast next weekend. A few record lows may be set, but widespread records are not anticipated. However, with this cold airmass settling in, the first frost and/or freeze of the fall will be possible from parts of the Deep South into the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic states later this week.

The GFS model shows the progression of the colder air across the nation over the next several days. Image provided by Weathermodels.com

 

Meanwhile, in the Atlantic, we’re entering the final month of hurricane season, and although October was quiet for the most part, November is not starting off that way. The storm system that produce heavy rain and significant wind damage across the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast last Tuesday and Wednesday moved out to sea and passed south of Atlantic Canada over the past several days. During the weekend it turned southward, moved over warmer water, and began to transition from a cold-core system to a warm-core system. Early Sunday it was designated as Subtropical Storm Wanda. It is in the middle of the Atlantic, nearly 1000 miles west of the Azores with maximum sustained winds near 50 mph. While it remains over marginally warmer waters, it may complete the transition into a tropical system and strengthen a bit more over the next day or two. Later this week, the most likely scenario is for it to head northeastward over colder water, transition back into an extratropical system, possibly bringing some rainfall and gusty winds to the British Isles next weekend. However, there are some models that show the storm turning back toward the south, and possibly impact the Azores by next weekend.

Forecast model tracks for Subtropical Storm Wanda. Image provided by WeatherBell.

 

Elsewhere, as is usually the case as we get into this time of year, a series of storm systems will bring heavy rain and mountain snow to parts of the Pacific Northwest and British Columbia, as well as parts of northern California. None of these systems will be as extreme as the storm that impacted California last week, but they will bring beneficial rainfall to the region.

Beneficial rain is expected across the Northwest later this week. Image provided by Weathermodels.com

 

The only other item of note for the week ahead is the potential for the first snowflakes of the season later this week east of the Great Lakes and into the higher elevations of the Northeast and New England. Any accumulations would be light, but they would be (in most cases), the first snow of the season, which is noteworthy in and of itself.

The Week Ahead: October 18-24, 2021

We’re keeping an eye on a couple of things for the upcoming week across the nation.

First, we’ve got a low pressure area that will move across the Great Basin and into the Rockies today and Tuesday, before it heads toward the northern Plains and Upper Midwest. While this system will likely produce snow across the higher elevations (parts of Wyoming could see more than a foot), the bigger story with the system is the temperatures both ahead of it and behind it.

Parts of Wyoming could see more than a foot of snow over the next few days. Image provided by the College of DuPage.

 

Temperatures are likely to run 15-20 degrees above normal across the Northern Plains today ahead of the system, shifting to the northern Great Lakes Tuesday. While these readings aren’t likely to set any records, they will be quite mild for mid-October. By the middle of the week, the warm air will settle into the Northeast, where temperatures will be 10-15 degrees above normal for Wednesday and Thursday. Behind the storm, temperatures will be 15-25 degrees below normal across interior California and Nevada today. That cold air will shift into the Rockies on Tuesday, where temperatures will still be 15-20 degrees below normal. As the core of the colder air moves into the Northern Plains on Wednesday, temperatures will be 10-18 degrees below normal, a significant change from what that region will experience today.

The GFS model shows the temperature anomalies over the next few days. Loop provided by Weathermodels.com

 

The other item we’re keeping an eye on are the twin low pressure areas that will impact the West Coast Friday and next Sunday. Heavy rain is expected into at least northern California, with the possibility of rain falling as far south of Los Angeles. Rainfall totals of 1-3 inches are possible along the coastal plain from British Columbia into Northern California, possibly even into the Bay Area. Across the higher elevations of the Cascades and Sierra Nevada, heavy snow is likely. Many locations could see more than a foot of snow.

Heavy rain is expected across the West Coast at the end of the week and the weekend. Image provided by WeatherBell.

 

Elsewhere, we’re not expecting much significant weather across the rest of the nation, but one other thing we’ll keep an eye on. The cooler air moving into the Plains for mid-week will make its way into the Northeast for next weekend. Some of the models are showing the possibility for some lake-effect snow downwind of Lakes Ontario and Erie toward Sunday as gusty west winds bring much cooler air across the still-warm lakes.

September Has it All – Heat, Snow, Drought, and Tropical Storms

Autumn and Spring are the transition seasons, and September is certainly proving that right off the bat.

Intense heat has been common across much of the West for the past few days. Temperatures well over 100 degrees have been common, with numerous records set. One location, Richmond, on the eastern side of San Francisco Bay, reached 107 degrees Monday, afternoon, tying their all-time record, originally set on September 15, 1971. Several other locations set monthly records for September as well. The worst of the heat is over, but it will remain hot on Tuesday, with highs likely topping 100 across much of interior California and the Desert Southwest, possibly setting a few more records.

Another hot day is likely across interior California on Tuesday. Image provided by WeatherBell.

 

Heat was also common across the Plains and Rocky Mountains over the weekend, but big changes are developing thanks to a strong cold front. Denver set a record high of 97 on Sunday, then reached 93 on Monday. On Tuesday, that 93 will get reversed with a high closer to 39. On top of that, accumulating snow is likely. Even by Denver standards, this is quite early in the year for snow. Their all-time record for earliest snow is September 3, 1961, but on average Denver doesn’t see it’s first flakes until October 18. This won’t be the 1st time that Denver hit 90 one day and then had measurable snow the next. On September 12, 1993, Denver recorded a high of 92 degrees, and on September 13, they had 5.4″ of snow.

While a few inches of snow are likely in Denver and onto the adjacent High Plains of eastern Colorado and western Nebraska, heavier snow is likely across the mountains on Colorado and Wyoming. Across the higher elevations, snowfall totals in excess of a foot are likely.

Heavy snow is likely across the Central Rockies on Tuesday. Image provided by the College of DuPage.

 

While the snow gets the headlines, the cold air behind the front will be making headlines of its own. The first frost and freeze of the season is likely across the Dakotas Tuesday and/or Wednesday morning, with lows in the upper 20s and 30s. The cold air will continue to push southward across the Great Plains during the day on Tuesday, with numerous record lows expected Wednesday morning as far south as the Texas Panhandle.

Record lows are likely across the Plains and the Rockies Wednesday morning. Image provided by Weathermodels.com

 

While plenty of precipitation is expected across the Rockies, the lack of it is causing problems across the Northeast. Aside from a few showers with a cold front on Thursday, generally dry weather is expected across much of New England this week. This shouldn’t be a surprise, as precipitation has been generally below to well below normal across the region since the Spring. In some areas, the amount of rain has only been around 50-60% of normal. Drought conditions have developed across nearly all of New England, and for a good portion of the region, it is now considered a severe drought. What the region needs is a series of systems that can produce moderate rainfall to help alleviate the drought, but prospects for that aren’t promising at this time. In fact, rainfall looks to remain below normal for much of the remainder of September.

Severe drought conditions have developed across parts of New England. Image provided by the National Drought Mitigation Center.

 

Meanwhile, as we approach the climatological peak of hurricane season, the Atlantic is once again getting more active. Tropical Storms Paulette and Rene both developed on Monday in the central and eastern Atlantic respectively. Paulette is expected to remain a tropical storm for the next several days while remaining over open water. It is not expected to be a threat to land. Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Rene moved through the Cabo Verde Islands Monday night, producing heavy rain and gusty winds. It will likely strengthen over the next couple of days, possibly becoming a hurricane later this week. Once it pulls away from the Cabo Verde Islands it is also expected to remain over open water for much of this week, presenting no additional threat to land.

Satellite loop showing Tropical Storms Paulette and Rene in the central and eastern Atlantic. Loop provided by Tropical Tidbits. (Click for Loop)

 

Those systems aren’t the only ones in the Atlantic that are being watched. An area of low pressure a couple of hundred miles southwest of Bermuda is expected to drift westward over the next few days. Some development of the system is possible. It may bring some rainfall into parts of the Carolinas and Southeast late this week. The other area that is being watched isn’t apparent right now, as it is still over western Africa. A tropical wave is expected to emerge from the west coast of Africa late this week. Forecast models show the potential for this wave to develop rather quickly once it moves into the Atlantic. It could threaten the Cabo Verde Islands over the weekend.

Models show the potential for 2 tropical systems to develop over the next several days. Image provided by the University at Albany.

 

The peak of hurricane season is during the middle to latter half of September. Given how active this season has been so far, there will likely be more systems developing. There are only 4 names left on this list for this season – Sally, Teddy, Vicky, and Wilfred. Once the list is exhausted, the Greek alphabet is used. This has only happened once before – in 2005. During that season, there were 28 named storms of which 15 became hurricanes.

Easter Sunday Severe Weather in the South, Windy Monday in the Northeast

A rather strong storm system will wreak all sorts of havoc on a large swath of the nation through the weekend and into Monday.

Low pressure is moving into the Plains states today, producing some strong to severe thunderstorms from Texas into the Southern Plains. That’s just the start of what will be a busy few days. As the storm moves into the southern Plains tonight, showers and thunderstorms, some strong to severe, will spread from Texas into the Mississippi Valley. To the north, snow is expected across the Central Plains. Some locations could pick up 6-12 inches this weekend in a swath from Nebraska and South Dakota into parts of Iowa, southern Minnesota, and Wisconsin.

Easter Sunday is the day that will likely grab most of the headlines away from the pandemic for a day. As the system moves into the Ohio Valley, warm, moist air will be drawn northward from the Gulf of Mexico, and as this clashes with the cold air advancing southward behind the storm, the ingredients will be in place for a severe weather outbreak. Severe weather may be ongoing as Easter Sunday dawns across the Lower Mississippi Valley, but activity will spread eastward during the day across the Deep South and the Tennessee Valley. Some of the stronger storms may produce damaging winds, large hail, torrential downpours, and likely numerous tornadoes. The risk will continue well into the overnight hours, especially in Georgia, eastern Tennessee and western portions of the Carolinas.

A severe weather outbreak is possible across a large portion of the South on Easter Sunday. Image provided by the Storm Prediction Center.

 

By Monday, the system will move into Ontario, dragging a strong cold front across the Eastern United States. Warm, humid air will continue to flow northward ahead of this front, triggering more showers and thunderstorms during the morning and early afternoon from northern Florida into the Mid-Atlantic states. Some of these storms could produce hail, strong winds, heavy downpours, and some tornadoes, especially from the Carolinas to the Delmarva Peninsula.

The severe weather threat shifts to the East Coast on Monday. Image provided by the Storm Prediction Center.

 

To the north, heavy snow will continue behind the storm from northern Wisconsin into the Upper Peninsula of Michigan and Ontario. Snowfall totals of 10-20 inches or more are likely. Winds gusting to 40-50 mph will create significant blowing and drifting of the snow, with blizzard conditions at times.

Heavy snow is likely from Wisconsin in the Upper Peninsula of Michigan Sunday into early Tuesday. Image provided by Weathermodels.com

 

In the Northeast, the big story will be the wind. Rain will be a secondary concern, with rainfall totals of 1-2 inches or more possible across much of the region. Some embedded thunderstorms may produce heavier downpours, especially in western New England and eastern New York, but flooding isn’t much of a concern. Precipitation has been below normal across much of the area through a good chunk of the winter and early Spring, so the region needs all the rain it can get, though maybe not quite this much at once. There will be some ponding on the roadways, and some of the smaller streams may overflow, but widespread flooding shouldn’t be a problem. The wind, on the other hand, will be a major problem.

Precipitation has been below normal across much of the Northeast during the first 100 days of 2020. Image provided by the Northeast Regional Climate Center.

 

As the system gets cranked up in Ontario, strong southerly winds will develop across the region. These will bring milder air into the region. We won’t quite reach the 90s that will set records across Florida on Monday, but 50s and 60s are still a bit above normal for mid-April around here. Southerly winds will increase Monday morning, with sustained winds of 25-35 mph expected during the afternoon. Wind gusts of 60-70 mph or higher are expected as well. This will likely result in power outages as they take down trees that are starting to show their leaves, along with power lines. Winds should start to diminish during the evening as a cold front moves through, bringing an end to the rain and shifting the winds into the west.

Wind gusts of 60-70 mph or higher could be widespread across the Northeast Monday afternoon. Image provided by WeatherBell.

 

Conditions should improve on Tuesday across the Northeast as high pressure builds in with some sunshine developing, but it will still be breezy as the now-powerful storm moves into northern Quebec, where heavy snow will likely continue.

M is for Mayhem

For the third year in a row, the “M” storm in the Atlantic is prepared to wreak havoc on a populated area, but Michael isn’t the only headline maker in the weather at the moment.

Hurricane Michael isn’t the only storm in the news, but it is the biggest threat at the moment. As of early Tuesday afternoon, Michael was centered about 335 miles south of Panama City, Florida, moving toward the north at 12 mph. Maximum sustained winds are near 110 mph, making Michael a Category 2 Hurricane. Additional strengthening is expected over the next 12-18 hours as the storm moves over the warm waters of the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Hurricane and Storm Surge Warnings are in effect for the Florida Panhandle and the Big Bend area of Florida, with Tropical Storm Warnings and Watches surrounding the Hurricane Warnings. Tropical Storm Watches are also in effect for the Atlantic coast from northeastern Florida into South Carolina.

Forecast track for Hurricane Michael. Image provided by the National Hurricane Center.

Michael is expected to make landfall in the Florida Panhandle Wednesday afternoon, likely as a Category 3 storm. Strong winds, torrential rainfall, storm surge, and some tornadoes are all possible with this storm. Unlike Florence, which hung around the Carolinas for days and dumped incredible amounts of rainfall on the region, Michael is expected to keep moving at a steady pace, emerging off the Mid-Atlantic coast by Friday morning. Rainfall totals of 5-10 inches are still expected in parts of the region, which will produce flooding in some areas, especially in Carolinas, where many areas are still recovering from Florence. Right along the coast, a storm surge of 6-12 feet is possible, especially in the Big Bend area of Florida. Fortunately, this area is not heavily populated, but for the residents that do live in this area, storm surge flooding is a significant threat.

This is the 3rd year in a row that the “M” storm is expected to result in significant damage to a populated area. In 2014, Category 5 Hurricane Matthew left a path of death and destruction across parts of Haiti, Cuba, the Bahamas, and eventually parts of the southeastern United States. Last year, Category 5 Hurricane Maria devastated the northeastern Caribbean, including Puerto Rico and the US Virgin Islands. While Michael is not expected to become a Category 5 storm, it is still expected to result in significant damage to parts of Florida and the Southeast.

Satellite loop of Tropical Storm Leslie. Loop provided by NOAA.

Meanwhile, in the eastern Atlantic, Tropical Storm Leslie refuses to go away. As of midday Tuesday, Leslie was centered a little more than 1000 miles west-southwest of the Azores, moving toward the south-southeast at 13 mph. Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph. The forecast for Leslie calls for a turn more toward the east over the next few days while it strengthens back into a hurricane. Leslie is expected to remain over open waters for the next few days, and could become an extratropical storm this weekend while continuing on a general easterly track.

To the south, Tropical Storm Nadine as formed nearly 500 miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. Nadine has maximum sustained winds near 40 mph, and is moving toward the west-northwest at 9 mph. Nadine is expected to remain fairly weak over open waters for the next several days while turning more toward the northwest. As it moves over colder water late this week and this weekend, it should weaken and eventually dissipate.

Back in the United States, unseasonably warm conditions remain in place across much of the eastern half of the nation. Temperatures are in the 70s and 80s across much of the region, which is 15 to 25 degrees above normal. A strong frontal system is located in the Plains states this afternoon, separating the warm air in the East, from much cooler weather behind it in the Plains and the Rockies. Right along this front, which hasn’t moved much for the past 24 hours, severe weather and heavy rainfall are common this afternoon.

National radar loop from early Tuesday afternoon. Loop provided by Weathertap.

Several tornadoes have been reported already today, including a few in the Oklahoma City area, and more are expected later today and tonight. Heavy rainfall is also expected from Texas into the Central Plains and parts of the Upper Midwest. Rainfall totals of 1-3 inches and locally heavier may produce flash flooding in some areas. Flash flood watches are in effect for much of the region.

Snowfall forecast through Thursday morning from the WRF model. Image provided by Pivotal Weather.

On the other side of the front, where much cooler weather is in place, rain is expected to change over to snow as low pressure rides along the front and into the Midwest. Winter weather advisories have already been posted for parts of the region. Snow is already falling in parts of Colorado this afternoon, and several inches may fall over the next 36-48 hours from western portions of Kansas and Nebraska into the Dakotas and northern Minnesota.

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