Extreme Temperatures | Hometown Forecast Services

The Week Ahead: August 29 – September 4, 2022

The weather pattern across the US isn’t that active at the moment, but the Atlantic may be starting to get active finally.

Despite a couple of wavy fronts, the weather across the US isn’t that active. Image provided by NOAA.

A persistent trough of low pressure will remain in place across the Southeast and Florida for the next few days. This will act as a focus for shower and thunderstorm activity across the region. Severe weather will be very isolated in nature, but some heavy rainfall totals are possible, especially across much of Florida, southern Georgia, and coastal portions of the Carolinas. Many locations will receive 1-3 inches of rain over the next several days, with isolated totals in excess of 5 inches possible in spots. This will likely lead to some flash flooding.

Some heavy rain is expected across parts of Florida and the Southeast this week. Image provided by WeatherBell.

Out West, where the monsoon has been quite active this summer, it will slow down this week, allowing heat to return. Excessive Heat Watches have been issued for parts of the Desert Southwest and Southern California. Triple digit highs are likely across the Southwest and interior California several days this week, as well as portions of the interior Northwest. Highs will soar well past 90 across much of the remainder of the West through the week, with numerous record highs possible each afternoon into next weekend.

Record highs are possible every day this week across the Western US. Image provided by WeatherBell.

Meanwhile, as we enter the peak of hurricane season, the Atlantic appears to be awakening from its 2 month slumber. There are several areas that the National Hurricane Center is keeping an eye on, but the most immediate threat appears to be a tropical wave and associated low pressure area several hundred miles east of the Lesser Antilles. The area is showing signs of organization, and conditions are somewhat favorable for development over the next few days. Most of the forecast the system to head northwestward for the next few days, passing north of the Lesser Antilles toward the end of the week. In terms of strength, several models either keep the system very weak or don’t develop it at all, and others do allow for some significant development. It could become a tropical depression later this week, but there are still significant questions as to the future of this system or if it even has a future.

Most of the models bring the disturbance in the central Atlantic on a northwestward course. Image provided by Tropical Tidbits.

There are a couple of other tropical waves we’re keeping an eye on. One of them is in the western Caribbean, and will bring some heavy rain and gusty winds to parts of the Yucatan and Central America today and tomorrow. Once it moves into the Gulf of Mexico, some forecast models show the potential for development, but others do not, so that wave will need to be monitored. Another wave will move off the coast of Africa tonight, and take its time crossing the Atlantic this week. Again, there are some models that show the potential for development, but others that don’t, so it will need to be monitored as well.

The Week Ahead: August 15-21, 2022

A fairly quiet week is expected across much of the nation this week.

The surface map looks somewhat busy, but there’s not a lot going on to start the week. Image provided by NOAA.

A weak low pressure system in the western Gulf of Mexico over the weekend moved into southern Texas late Sunday. If it had another 6-12 hours over water, it could have become a tropical depression. It will continue to push inland over the next few days, bringing some heavy rain to parts of southern Texas and northern Mexico. Many locations could receive 1-2 inches over the next few days, with some heavier amounts possible, especially in northern Mexico. Some localized flooding is possible, but the rain will also help with the ongoing severe drought across the region. Significantly more rainfall is needed to help put a dent in the drought, but every bit helps.

Heavy rain is expected in south Texas and northern Mexico over the next few days. Image provided by WeatherBell.

Hot weather will return to much of the West and the Pacific Northwest over the next few days as a ridge of high pressure builds in. Triple digit heat is likely across interior California, with some 90s right to the coastline. Temperatures will also soar into the 90s and 100s across the Interior Northwest for much of the week. Record highs are possible each day, with Tuesday and Wednesday the most likely days for the hottest weather. Excessive Heat Watches have already been posted for parts of the region.

Record highs are possible across parts of the West and Northwest this week. Images provided by Weathermodels.com

While the Northwest and West turn hotter, monsoonal moisture will continue to flow into the Southwest, producing more showers and thunderstorms each afternoon. Some of these storms will produce heavy rainfall that will trigger flash flooding in many areas. Flash Flood Watches remain in effect for parts of the region. The rain will also help to keep temperatures below normal. While it will remain seasonably hot, with highs still well into the 90s and 100s in many locations, these readings will be on average 3-6 degrees below normal for mid-August through midweek. By the end of the week, some places in the Southwest could see readings that are 6-12 degrees below normal.

Flash Flood Watches are in effect for the Southwest while Excessive Heat Watches have been posted for interior California. Image provided by Pivotal Weather.

Cool and wet conditions are also likely from the Tennessee Valley and Mid-Atlantic states into the Southeast this week. A frontal boundary will drop southward before stalling out across the Deep South this week. Showers and thunderstorms are likely along this boundary each day. Some of the storms may produce heavy rain, with some localized flooding possible each day. To the north of the front, some rather cool air for mid-August will settle in and remain in place through the end of the week. Temperatures will be as much as 7-14 degrees below normal for the next several days across this region, before they start to moderate next weekend.

Unseasonably cool weather is expected from the Tennessee Valley and Mid-Atlantic states into the Southeast. Images provided by WeatherBell.

The Week Ahead: July 18-24, 2022

Heat will be the big story this week, but severe weather will also grab some headlines early in the week.

A couple of frontal systems will generate some severe weather early in the week. Image provided by NOAA.

A frontal system moving across Montana this morning will help trigger some strong to severe thunderstorms later today across parts of the Northern Plains states. A widespread severe weather outbreak is not expected, but some storms may produce hail, damaging winds, and heavy downpours that could lead to flash flooding. Activity may start to wane by Tuesday morning as it crosses the Red River, but another round of strong to severe storms is expected to develop Tuesday afternoon and evening across parts of the Upper Mississippi Valley. The main threats with these storms will be strong winds, but hail and heavy downpours are also possible.

The severe weather threat shifts into the Upper Midwest on Tuesday. Image provided by the Storm Prediction Center.

Severe weather is possible in parts of the Northern Plains today. Image provided by the Storm Prediction Center.

Low pressure will move out of the Ohio Valley and into northern New England states. This system generated heavy rain across parts of the region over the weekend, resulting in some flooding in spots. The system will bring some much-needed rainfall to interior portions of New York and New England today, helping put a dent in the drought that has been developing for a few months. Some places could receive more than an inch of rainfall today. The system will also produce some strong thunderstorms across parts of the Mid-Atlantic states. A few severe storms are possible along the I-95 corridor from New York City to Washington. The main threat with any storms that develop will be strong winds, but there is a small risk for a tornado from eastern New York into parts of northern New Jersey and northeastern Pennsylvania.

Drought conditions continue to worsen across the Northeast. Image provided by the National Drought Mitigation Center.

Elsewhere, the main story this week will be record heat across the Plains states, eventually spreading to the East Coast. A large ridge of high pressure remains in place for the next several days from the Southwest into the Plains states. Temperatures will top 100 today from Texas northward to the Dakotas. While temperatures will turn a little cooler across the Dakotas for the next few days, triple-digits will continue across the central and southern Plains while spreading into the Lower Mississippi Valley, and by the end of the week into the Middle Mississippi Valley. Some record highs are expected for each of the next several afternoons, especially across Texas. Tuesday looks to be the hottest day, when temperatures may top 110 across portions of Oklahoma and northern Texas.

Record highs are expected across the nation’s mid-section nearly every afternoon this week. Images provided by WeatherBell.

Hot and humid weather will also spread to the East Coast later this week, and though a few records are possible conditions won’t be as extreme as in the Plains states. After the rain and potential severe weather today, heat will settle in on Tuesday, and remain in place for much of the week. Daytime temperatures will be in the lower to middle 90s for much of the week. Humidity levels will be moderate for Tuesday and Wednesday, but oppressive conditions return on Thursday. A frontal system may bring in some showers and thunderstorms later Thursday with drier weather returning for Friday and the weekend, but temperatures will remain very warm to hot.

The Week Ahead: July 11-17, 2022

The upcoming week will feature more heat in Texas and parts of the West, some severe weather in the northern tier of states and the potential for a tropical system in the Gulf of Mexico.

Quiet weather dominates much of the nation to start the week. Image provided by NOAA.

Record high temperatures were observed across much of the Plains states and Texas again on Sunday. In College Station, Texas, the high temperature reached 111 degrees at Easterwood Field. This not only broke the daily record of 109 that had stood since 1917, it broke the all-time record for July of 110, originally set on July 24, 1903, and tied on July 11, 1917. The 111-degree reading is tied with the 111 on September 5, 2000 for the 2nd warmest day in the city’s history, trailing only the 112 recorded on September 4, 2000. The heat will continue across Texas for the next few days, but temperatures shouldn’t be as hot as they were over the weekend. Records are still likely to fall in many spots across the state on Monday, with a few more possible on Tuesday and Wednesday as well. Excessive Heat Warnings and Heat Advisories remain in effect for a large part of the state.

Record highs are expected across Texas again on Monday. Image provided by Weathermodels.com

The heat will also continue across the Southwest and interior portions of the West for a good portion of the upcoming week. A few records are possible, but in most cases, temperatures will be 5-10 degrees above normal. Temperatures will likely top 110 in Las Vegas for the next few days, and in places like Phoenix and Tucson for most of the week. Triple-digit temperatures are likely across interior California Monday and Tuesday before dropping a little toward mid-week. Heat will also spread into parts of the Interior Northwest by midweek.

As is typical of July, a very hot week is expected in Death Valley, Image provided by Weathermodels.com

A frontal system will move across the northern tier of states over the next couple of the days. With a warm and humid airmass in place, some strong to severe thunderstorms are likely. The severe weather threat Monday exists across parts of the Great Lakes including the Chicago metropolitan area. By Tuesday, the threat will shift into interior portions of the Northeast. With the front not expected to reach the coast until after dark Tuesday evening, it will limit the severe weather threat for the big cities of the I-95 corridor on the Northeast. Some of the stronger storms may produce damaging winds, large hail, and heavy downpours that could lead to flash flooding in spots.

Severe weather is possible across interior portions of the Northeast on Tuesday. Image provided by the Storm Prediction Center.

Finally, low pressure is located along a frontal boundary over Georgia this morning. That boundary will wash out near the Gulf Coast over the next few days, but as it moves over the warm waters of the Gulf, conditions could become favorable for a low pressure area to form later this week. Whether it does form or not, some heavy rain is expected along the Gulf Coast from northern Florida to Louisiana. Some forecast models show the potential for rainfall totals 3 to 6 inches or higher, which could produce flooding in some areas.

A low pressure area moving into the northern Gulf of Mexico will be monitored for development this week. Image provided by the National Hurricane Center.

In the Eastern Pacific Ocean, Hurricane Darby should continue westward over open water for the next several days, well southwest of Mexico. It will likely peak in intensity toward Tuesday, then steadily weaken over cooler water. Some of the remnants of the system could enhance rainfall across Hawaii toward next weekend.

The Week Ahead: June 27-July 3, 2022

The weather looks quiet across much of the nation this week, but the tropics may be starting to get active.

High pressure will provide much of the nation with quiet weather this week. Image provided by NOAA.

A tropical wave is making its way across the Atlantic, and has been slowly showing signs of organization over the past several days. Conditions are favorable for additional development, and it could become a tropical depression before it crosses the Windward Islands on Tuesday. It should move into the southeastern Caribbean on Wednesday, then track across the southern Caribbean, possibly impacting the ABC islands later in the week. With the system expected to remain fairly far south and close to the northern coast of South America, significant development is not likely, but the system could become a tropical storm as it crosses the Caribbean.

Most of the forecast models track the tropical system across the Southern Caribbean. Image provided by WeatherBell.

We’re also keeping an eye on a cluster of thunderstorms in the northern Gulf of Mexico. They remain disorganized, but should drift toward the west over the next few days. There is some potential for limited development, though it doesn’t not seem very likely at this time. Whether it develops or not, the area of showers and thunderstorms should move into Texas later this week, bringing some beneficial rainfall to parts of southeastern Texas.

Areas along the Texas Coast really need rainfall to help put a dent in the drought. Image provided by the National Drought Mitigation Center.

The heat wave that had been gripping much of Texas and the Deep South has finally broken, and while there’s no extreme heat expected this week, much of the nation will see at least 1 or 2 hot days during the upcoming week. One such area is the Pacific Northwest. Heat starting moving into the region on Sunday, including Seattle and Portland. Today is will spread into parts of southeastern Alaska as well as the Interior Northwest. Spokane, Washington should reach 90 today for the first time this year. Last Wednesday, the city reached 80 for the first time, the latest in the year that Spokane recorded their first 80-degree day. In southeastern Alaska, temperatures will get well into the 70s and 80s in many locations, including Juneau, where some records may be set.

Today will be the first hot day of the year across the Interior Northwest. Image provided by Weathermodels.com

The heat will shift into the Plains states by midweek. Temperatures could top 100 across parts of the Northern and Central Plains on Wednesday, with the core of the heat shifting into the Central and Southern Plains on Thursday. By the end of the week, it looks like Friday will be a hot day across the I-95 corridor in the Northeast. Temperatures could get well into the 90s from Washington to Boston to start the holiday weekend.

The Week Ahead: June 6-12, 2022

A hot week is expected from Texas into the Southwest while the Plains states will be dealing with several rounds of severe weather.

A wavy frontal system in the Plains states will be the focus of severe weather this week. Image provided by NOAA.

A ridge of high pressure will build into parts of the Southwest and Texas over the next several days, resulting in hot and in some cases humid conditions. High temperatures will be well into the 90s and 100s across Texas for much of the upcoming week, with record highs possible in many locations each afternoon. The heat will spread across the Gulf Coast and into the Southeast later in the week, with temperatures reaching the 90s in many areas. However, the record heat will actually spread westward into the Southwest and California as the ridge continues to strengthen. By the latter half of the week, temperatures will top 100 across interior California, with parts of the Desert Southwest, including Phoenix and Las Vegas likely reaching 110 or more, with some records expected. Death Valley could reach 120 by the end of the week.

Record highs are expected over the next several days from Texas to California. Images provided by WeatherBell.

A wavy frontal system will remain in place across the central and southern Plains this week, keeping the heat in Texas, while cooler weather remains in place to the north. As waves of low pressure ride along that front, each one will trigger some showers and thunderstorms. Some of these storms could become strong to severe each afternoon, especially across parts of the southern Plains and into the Middle Mississippi Valley. One wave of low pressure may trigger some strong to severe storms this afternoon and evening, followed by another round of severe weather Tuesday afternoon and evening. A stronger wave, may produce more widespread severe weather in the central and southern Plains later on Thursday, possibly lingering into early Friday.

Several days of severe weather are expected across the Plains States this week. Image provided by Pivotal Weather.

In the Northeast, a dry spring has resulted in drought conditions developing, especially parts of eastern New England. Rainfall totals for the year are running 2-5 inches below normal, with much of that deficit occurring over the past 2 months. A cold front will move into the region on Wednesday, stalling out as it moves through, with a wave of low pressure riding along the front Wednesday night and early Thursday. This should bring some beneficial rain into the area, with widespread totals of 0.50″-1.00″ expected, and some heavier amounts likely.

Much-needed rainfall is expected in parts of the Northeast Wednesday into Thursday. Image provided by Weathermodels.com

The Week Ahead: May 23-29, 2022

As we approach Memorial Day, a summer-like weather pattern is setting up across the nation.

A frontal boundary extending from the Southwest to the East Coast will be the main focus for the next few days. Image provided by NOAA.

A ridge of high pressure will settle into parts of the West and Southwest by mid-week, allowing warm to hot weather to return to parts of California and the Desert Southwest. The hot weather will only last a few days, but several record highs are possible across interior California, where highs in the upper 90s and 100s are likely. Triple digit highs are also expected across the Southwest, including Phoenix, Tucson, and possibly Las Vegas as well. By the end of the week, the ridge will shift eastward, with cooler weather returning to California while heat shifts back into the Southern Plains and Texas.

Some record highs are possible across parts of California by midweek. Image provided by Weathermodels.com

Before the heat returns to Texas, severe weather is possible across parts of the Lone Star State over the next several days. A frontal boundary will be stalled out across the region today into Tuesday, producing showers and thunderstorms, some strong to severe, across central and southern portions of the state. By mid-week, a low pressure area will develop along the front and head northeastward, spreading showers and thunderstorms into eastern parts of the state and into the Mississippi Valley.

Severe weather and heavy rain are possible from Texas and the Southern Plains into the Southeast over the next several days. Image provided WeatherBell.

Severe weather isn’t the only threat with that frontal boundary. Heavy rain is likely from Texas and the Southern Plains into the Southeast over the next several days as showers and thunderstorms continue to develop and move across parts of the region. Many locations could pick up 2 to 4 inches of rain this week, with some places seeing 5 or more inches. While this will help a bit with the drought in parts of the region (notably Texas), too much rain in a short period doesn’t help, and likely will lead to flooding in many areas.

The Week Ahead: May 16-22, 2022

We’ve got elements of Spring, Summer, and Winter coming up across parts of the nation this week.

A frontal system stretching from Texas to the Great Lakes will impact the weather to start the week. Image provided by NOAA.

Record heat is likely from the Southern Plains into Texas over the next couple of days, spreading across the Gulf Coast and into the Southeast by midweek, then spreading up into the Mid-Atlantic states later this week and into the Northeast by the end of the week. High temperatures will be well into the 90s, with triple digits expected across portions of Texas and New Mexico, and possibly into southern Oklahoma as well. Relief may arrive across parts of the Southern Plains and Texas by the weekend, but until then mid-summer heat and humidity are expected.

Dozens of record highs are likely across the South and eventually the East this week. Images provided by WeatherBell.

Across the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic states, today will be a warm day, but not as warm as later in the week. However, a strong cold front will be approaching the region, with a severe weather outbreak expected ahead of the front. Thunderstorms will likely move across the Appalachians during the morning, reaching the I-95 corridor during the late afternoon hours, before the cold front moves offshore during the evening. Any storms that do form may produce hail, damaging winds, heavy downpours, and tornadoes, especially from the Virginia Tidewater northward into parts of eastern New York and western New England.

Severe weather is expected today from North Carolina to New England. Image provided by Pivotal Weather.

Another storm system will bring some rain and mountain snow into parts of the Pacific Northwest by midweek. While the rain won’t be exceptionally heavy, every little bit helps, as drought conditions persist, especially east of the Cascades. As that system moves eastward, it will bring rain into parts of the Northern Plains late this week. Unlike the Northwest, drought is not a problem there, but flooding is, so the rain will not be welcome. Many rivers remain above flood stage across the Dakotas, especially the Red River, so the rain, which could total an inch or more, will worsen flooding across the region. As the system passes by, colder air settles in behind it, with some snow possible in parts of North Dakota. While this is getting very late in the season for snow, it has happened before, with many locations in northern and eastern North Dakota recording measurable snow as late as the final week of May in the past.

The Week Ahead: May 9-15, 2022

Extreme temperatures, both hot and cold, will grab most of the attention this week.

While the surface map looks crowded to start the week, there’s not a lot of active weather out there. Image provided by NOAA.

A large ridge of high pressure will dominate the eastern two thirds of the nation this week, resulting in very warm to hot weather for much of the region. High temperatures well into the 80s and 90s are likely from the Plains States into the Mississippi Valley over the next few days, with dozens of record highs likely. Triple-digit temperatures are possible across parts of Texas. As the week goes on, the heat will spread to the East Coast. By the end of the week and start of next week, temperatures in the 80s are expected as far north as parts of Quebec and Ontario.

Record highs are likely in many locations across the Plains States and Mississippi Valley this week. Images provided by WeatherBell.

Meanwhile, much colder air will settle into the West. Temperatures will be 10-20 degrees below normal across much of the region through mid-week, with record lows possible in many locations. The chilly weather will be accompanied by rain and mountain snow from the Northwest into northern California. This is good news after a dry winter, as it will help build up the snowpack before the melt season begins in earnest.

Very chilly weather may result in record lows in several locations across the Northwest and California on Tuesday. Image provided by Weathermodels.com

By Thursday, severe weather will be possible across parts of the Northern and Central Plains as a low pressure system moves into the region. Some of the storms that develop could produce hail, strong winds, and tornadoes. In addition, heavy rain is likely to accompany the system, which will exacerbate flooding across the region, particularly in the Red River Valley, where major flooding continues to occur.

There is a risk for severe weather on Thursday across the Northern and Central Plains. Image provided by Pivotal Weather.

The other thing we’re keeping our eyes on is the low pressure system that brought heavy rain and cool conditions to the Mid-Atlantic states over the weekend. It has moved offshore, and is expected to slowly drift southward over the next few days, milling around off the Carolina coast by mid-week. It could produce a few showers right along the coast, but for the most part, it should remain offshore. However, by later in the week, it will start to drift westward, towards the Southeast coast, spreading some rainfall toward the region. Some of the forecast models are showing the potential for it to acquire some tropical or subtropical characteristics as it does so. Sea surface temperatures are still a bit on the cool side (72-77F) for any tropical development, but in recent years we’ve seen some subtropical systems develop over the western Atlantic as we head into mid-May (whether they were actually subtropical or not is a debate we won’t get into at this time). Hurricane Season officially begins June 1 in the Atlantic.

If a tropical system were to develop in mid-May, the Caribbean or the waters north and east of the Bahamas are likely spots. Image provided by the National Hurricane Center.

The Week Ahead: April 25 – May 1, 2022

April will end on a fairly quiet note across much of the nation.

A strong cold front will be the primary weather-maker for the next day or two. Image provided by NOAA.

A strong cold front will move across the Eastern US over the next day or two. It may produce some strong to severe thunderstorms today from Texas to the Great Lakes, but a widespread severe weather event is not expected. Some storms may produce gusty winds, hail, heavy downpours, and possibly a tornado. As the system reaches the East Coast on Tuesday, it will produce some showers and thunderstorms, but again, severe weather is not likely.

A few severe storms are possible ahead of a cold front from the Great Lakes to Texas today. Image provided by Pivotal Weather.

Across the West, the lack of rain will be cause for concern this week. The rainy season is nearly over, and little to no rainfall is expected this week across much of the Southwest, Great Basin, and California. A severe drought remains in progress across the region, and the lack of rainfall, combined with gusty winds later this week, will result in an increased threat for wildfires. Several large fires are already burning in parts of the region, and the dry weather will not help.

Drought conditions continue across the western half of the nation. Image provided by the National Drought Mitigation Center.

The other thing we’re watching this week is some unseasonably cool weather that will spread across the eastern two thirds of the nation. The chilly weather will continue across the Plains states today in the wake of this past weekend’s storm system. Temperatures will be 10 to 20 degrees below normal from parts of Texas to the Great Lakes today. with parts of the Dakotas and Minnesota seeing temperatures as much as 30 degrees below normal. While the chilly air will persist in the Northern Plains for the next few days, temperatures will start to moderate across the Central and Southern Plains while the chilly air slides eastward while moderating. The colder air will settle into parts of the Great Lakes and Northeast by Wednesday, and may remain in place through the weekend, though the coldest days look to be Wednesday and Thursday, when anomalies of 10-15 degrees below normal are likely across the region. A few record lows are possible each morning this week.