#Drought | Hometown Forecast Services

Drought and Wildfire Risk in the West

Winter of 2025-2026 left the snowpacks of the Rockies in a dire state. Combined with one of the warmest winters on record and a looming El Nino, most Western states are looking at a worsening drought for the summer. Cities across the West saw record low snowfall and record high temperatures this past winter. Combined with an abnormally warm March, snowpack in the mountains is at the lowest it has been since records were first kept.

Map showing snowpack percent of median from 1991 to 2020 as of May 26. Most of the region is significantly below the average, reporting around or below 40% of the median snowpack. Image provided by the US Department of Agriculture

In portions of Colorado, Wyoming, and southwestern Montana, most of the season snowfall occurs during the fall and in the Spring, not in the winter like much of the remainder of the nation. This year, the majority of the snow has fallen in the Spring, with multiple late season snowstorms have helped to replenish the snowpack. Most of this is falling in the mountains, where the majority of the snowpack typically resides.

72 Hour snowfall reports from May 22nd in the Rockies. Parts of western Montana, Wyoming, and Colorado received at least 8 to 12 inches of snow between May 19 and May 22. Image provided by NOAA

Low snowpack in the West, combined with warmer temperatures earlier in the year, have detrimental effects going into both Spring and Summer. Normally, warmer temperatures arrive in during May and June, allowing the snowmelt to provide a semi-constant source of water, keeping soils moist and vegetation wetter into the warmer months. With the snowpack being at effectively zero this year, it creates an environment that is prime for wildfires, as vegetation and soil dry out early in the season.

An above average significant wildlands fire potential exists for Florida, the mid-southwest, and northwest for June 2026. Image provided by the National Interagency Fire Center.

With below average precipitation and above average temperatures expected in the coming months, the drought that has been gripping the region is also expected to expand, further increasing the risk of wildfires. Alongside the increased risk of wildfires as the season starts earlier comes the increased risk of more severe wildfires as more vegetation becomes drought stressed.

While drought conditions may improve in the Southwest, they will likely worsen across much of the remainder of the West over the next few months. Image provided by NOAA

Over the several weeks, precipitation across most of the Central and Northern US is expected to be below normal. Rainfall should continue across much of the Southeast, alleviating drought concerns there. Similar conditions are also expected in the Southwest as the annual monsoon develops.

Precipitation is expected to be below normal for much of the Central and Western US, with the Southeast and parts of the Southwest seeing some relief. Image provided by Weathermodels.com

With a developing El Nino, more rainfall is expected across the southern tier of states over the coming months, with drier conditions to the north.

Droughts End in Floods

There’s an old saying in meteorology that goes “Droughts end in Floods”. That is likely to be the case over the next few days, as an extensive, and in some cases significant drought currently grips a large portion of the nation, but relief is on the way for some areas.

Drought conditions continue across a large portion of the nation. Image provided by the National Drought Mitigation Center.

As is typical with a La Nina pattern that had been in place since last summer, dry weather was common for much of the southern tier of states over the past several months. Many locations from eastern Texas to the Southeast and up the East Coast are running precipitation deficits on the order of 6 to 12 inches or more over the past 6 months. This has worsened drought conditions in many areas, and created them in spots that weren’t that dry to begin with. That dry pattern is about to change.

Rainfall totals are well below normal across much of the South and the East this year. Image provided by weathermodels.com

A strong cold front extends from the Great Lakes to Texas this evening, and while the northern portion of the front will head eastward tonight and Wednesday, southern portions of the front will become stationary from Texas to the Carolinas over the next few days. With a southerly flow south and east of the front, moisture from the Gulf of Mexico will continue to flow northward, resulting in numerous episodes of showers and thunderstorms over the next several days from Texas to the Southeast.

Strong to severe thunderstorms are ongoing late this afternoon from Texas to the Ohio Valley. Loop provided by the College of DuPage. (Click for loop)

Strong to severe thunderstorms are already occurring across parts of Texas, and they will spread across much of the remainder of the Lone Star State this evening. With that front stalled out across central portions of the state for the next few days, waves of low pressure will ride along it, resulting in numerous episodes of heavy rain and thunderstorms. While severe weather is still possible along the tail end of the front in west Texas on Wednesday, heavy rain will be the main threat for the next several days. Between now and next Tuesday, much of southern and eastern Texas as well as nearby portions of Louisiana, Arkansas, and Mississippi could see as much as 4 to 8 inches of rain, with isolated totals to 10 inches or more possible. While this will wipe out the precipitation deficits, it will also result in flooding in many areas, especially urban areas like Houston where flash flooding is common during heavy rainfall.

Very heavy rain is likely across portions of Texas and the Lower Mississippi Valley over the next week. Image provided by WeatherBell.

Farther east, drought conditions remain very problematic across parts of the Southeast, where wildfires have been a problem this Spring. While some rainfall will move in over the next few days, the bulk of the heavy rain will stay north of this area, with the front remaining stationary across the Tennessee Valley and the Carolinas. In these spots, rainfall will still be significant, on the order of 1-3 inches and locally heavier, over the next several days, but nowhere near what will fall across Texas and the Lower Mississippi Valley. Drought conditions persist in this region as well, so the rainfall will be welcome.

Several rounds of thunderstorms and heavy rain are likely from the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys to the Carolinas and parts of the East Coast this week. Image provided by weathermodels.com

Heavy rainfall is also likely across parts of the Ohio Valley, likely resulting in flooding in some spots. This are has received persistent rainfall through the Spring, so drought it not an issue, and the heavy rain falling on ground that is already saturated, or near saturation will end up in flooding. Many rivers in the region are already near flood stage, especially across southern Indiana and southern Illinois, so the addition rain will send these rivers over their banks.