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How The Global Circulation Impacts Weather in the East

Over the past few months, there has been consistent troughing over the United States, particularly in the Great Lakes region, which has led to a stormier pattern across the eastern half of the country. One factor that can influence these changes in storm patterns and consistency is teleconnections.

Above to well above normal rainfall has been common across the Northeast over the past 90 days. Image provided by WeatherBell.

Teleconnections are relationships between specific weather phenomena at locations often separated by considerable distances. These phenomena are correlated with particular climate patterns spanning thousands of miles and exhibit variabilities ranging from days to years. Some of these patterns can also have more significant impacts during specific seasons, while others affect the climate pattern throughout the year.

Many of the teleconnection patterns that affect the United Stated have been mostly positive since the start of the year. Image provided by the Climate Prediction Center.

Some of the major teleconnections and patterns that affect North America include the Arctic Oscillation (AO), El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO), East Pacific Pattern (EP), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) , Pacific/North American Pattern (PNA), and Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO). Patterns like ENSO will have a lesser impact on intraseasonal climate variability, as it can take several months to transition between phases. In contrast, the NAO will have a greater impact, as it can change between phases on a more regular basis.

Temperature patterns for North America associated with the different phases of the North Atlantic Oscillation. Image provided by the Climate Prediction Center.

The NAO is an oscillation that impacts the climate pattern throughout the year. The positive phase will generally bring above-normal temperatures with a drier pattern to the Eastern United States, while the negative phase will produce the opposite. In the winter, a negative NAO usually leads to blocking over Greenland, and an increasing chance for more potent storms off the East Coast. The NAO has been mainly in the positive phase since early 2025. Although this may mean dry and warm conditions, the spring of 2025 averaged above normal for both temperature and precipitation across the eastern United States.

The monthly average of the NAO has been leaning positive since the beginning of 2025. Image provided by the National Center for Environmental Information

When examining other teleconnection patterns to identify the potential origins of the persistent unsettled pattern, it can be noted that the East Pacific Pattern transitioned into its positive phase in June, following a predominantly negative phase, especially over the past year. When the East Pacific Pattern is in its positive phase, the Eastern United States will experience more cyclonic activity, i.e., the persistent troughing we’ve been seeing across the Great Lakes and into the Eastern United States over the last several weeks.

The monthly average of the East Pacific Pattern shifted positive in June after leaning negative for the last year. Image provided by the Climate Prediction Center.

The stormy pattern is expected to continue across the East this weekend, as the NAO is expected to turn negative again, and a large trough of low pressure will settle into the Northeast. After a couple of hot and humid days for the first half of the week, a strong cold front will cross the region late Wednesday and Thursday before stalling out across the Mid-Atlantic states. Behind the front, temperatures will be as much as 5-10 degrees below normal for the end of the week and into the start of next week.

Much cooler weather will settle into the Eastern half of the nation this weekend. Image provided by Weathermodels.com.

Along with the cooler weather, the potential exists for more heavy rain and flooding in parts of the Mid-Atlantic states and Northeast. As that front stalls out, a wave of low pressure will ride along it Thursday into Friday. With plenty of moisture in place in the tropical atmosphere south of the front, the wave of low pressure will produce heavy rain and thunderstorms. Some models show the potential for 3-6 inches or more of rainfall in spots in the span of 24-36 hours. Where the heaviest rain falls will be determined by where the front stalls out and the wave rides along it, which is still uncertain at this point.

Models are showing the potential for some heavy rain in the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic at the end of the week. Images provided by Pivotal Weather.

This pattern has the potential to produce other issues as we head deeper into the summer. The tropics have been mostly quiet thus far, but we’re approaching the time of year when activity ramps up. The bulk of storms in the Atlantic form between mid-August and mid-October. While many storms will end up recurving and heading out to sea before impacting the United States, an East Coast threat becomes a little more likely with an upper-level trough of low pressure in the Midwest or near the Appalachians.

Holiday Weekend Outlook

As we begin the Independence Day holiday weekend, high pressure will bring dry weather to many areas of the eastern United States, while places out West could see unsettled weather. A frontal system will move east into the start of next week, bringing showers and thunderstorms across the northern and eastern half of the country. Hot and potentially dangerous temperatures are possible into the start of the week across the Midwest and Northeast. Eyes are on the waters off the Southeast, where tropical storm development is possible around mid-week.

Friday – Independence Day

A cold front that has recently crossed the Northeast will provide perfect weather for the region, high pressure bringing sunshine and lower dewpoints, keeping humidity at a very comfortable level. High pressure will continue to dominate from the Great Lakes to the Gulf Coast, bringing sunshine to most of the Eastern United States.

Much drier air will move into the Northeast for Friday. Image provided by Weathermodels.com

Other areas of the Southeast will see the potential for rain as a low pressure near Florida allows the rain to continue. Remnants of the very short-lived Tropical Storm Barry will also bring the chance for rain and thunderstorms to most of Texas.

Hot and potentially dangerous temperatures are possible across the Upper Mississippi Valley and Northern Plains ahead of a cold front extending from a low pressure system in central Canada. This frontal system will bring rain and thunderstorms to the region, with a marginal risk of strong to severe thunderstorms.

Heat index Values for Friday across the Northern Plains. Image provided by Pivotal Weather.

Monsoonal moisture will produce showers and thunderstorms across parts of the Southwest, especially during the afternoon. A system in the Northwestern United States will bring showers with a chance of thunderstorms to the Pacific Northwest, Great Basin, and Intermountain West.

Saturday

The hot temperatures will progress east as the frontal system moves across the northern United States, the marginal risk of severe weather continues across the Upper Great Lakes while also shifting to the central Mississippi Valley. The front will wrap up into the Central Plains as it converges with a weaker system in the Northwest, with a marginal risk of severe weather in the west-central Plains.

The low pressure near Florida will bring another day of showers and thunderstorms to the state as moisture from Barry continues to sit over Texas, with more showers and thunderstorms possible.

Monsoonal moisture will allow the potential for afternoon showers and thunderstorms to return across the Southwest.

Sunday

Showers and thunderstorms will begin to taper off across Florida as the low pressure system nearby slowly pulls away from the region and moves up the East Coast, bringing shower and thunderstorm activity into the Mid-Atlantic.

Hot and humid weather will return to the Northeast as the frontal system continues its eastward progression. Showers and thunderstorms are possible from the Great Lakes to the Southern Plains. The weaker system follows behind the main system, bringing the potential for showers and thunderstorms to the Central and Northern Plains.

Heat indices across the Northeast on Sunday. Image provided by WeatherBell.

Monsoonal moisture could potentially bring more showers and thunderstorms to the Southwest.

Monday through Friday

Hot and humid weather will continue across the Northeast on Monday as the frontal system continues its progression east with showers and thunderstorms possible from the Northeast to the Southern Plains. A weaker low pressure system following this system will continue to produce showers and thunderstorms through the Central Plains.

The low pressure system in the Southeast will continue its journey up the East Coast, allowing for the potential of showers and thunderstorms across the Mid-Atlantic. This system will begin to interact with the large frontal system on Tuesday, allowing the front to become stationary across the Tennessee Valley. The stationary front will produce showers and thunderstorms from the Ohio Valley to the Gulf Coast through the end of the week. These two systems will be monitored for tropical system development as they move offshore.

The East will be unsettled with the West turns drier next week. Loop provided by Pivotal Weather.

The smaller low pressure in the Central Plains will begin to weaken on Tuesday, allowing the shower and thunderstorm potential to diminish. Drier weather is expected through the middle of the week before another system develops toward the end of the week, bringing the potential for showers and thunderstorms.

Monsoon moisture will allow for the potential of afternoon showers and thunderstorms each afternoon.

Heat, Humidity, and a Snowstorm?

Hot and humid conditions are expected across the eastern half of the nation as we go through the first weekend of summer.

A ridge of high pressure brings heat and humidity to the eastern half of the nation over the next few days. Loop provided by Pivotal Weather.

A large ridge of high pressure centered over the Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys Saturday morning will slowly move eastward over the next few days, resulting in hot and humid conditions for a large portion of the nation. The heat and humidity are focused on the Plains States and Mississippi Valley to start the weekend with Heat Advisories and Extreme Heat Warnings in place from the Northern and Central Plains into the Mississippi Valley and the Midwest. High temperatures will reach the 90s in much of this region, with highs topping 100 in parts of the Northern and Central Plains, possibly setting records in a few spots. With dewpoints in the upper 60s and 70s, the heat index will reach 100 to as high as 110 in much of the region. The heat will continue into Sunday, with widespread highs in the 90s and lower 100s expected once again and heat indices in excess of 100, but an approaching cold front will produce showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening, some of which could be strong to severe, bringing relief to the region.

The heat index will top 100 across much of the nation’s mid-section Saturday afternoon. Image provided by WeatherBell.

The heat and humidity will shift into the Great Lakes and Northeast on Sunday, with record highs expected in many areas as temperatures rise well into the 90s. Dewpoints will be climbing into the 60s and 70s, resulting in heat indices near or over 100. Heat Advisories and Extreme Heat Watches and Warnings have been issued for much of this region. As we head into the start of the new week, the focus of the heat will shift once again to the heavily-populated Interstate 95 corridor along the East Coast. High temperatures in the upper 90s to possibly lower 100s are expected on Monday in this area likely setting records in dozens of locations, more likely on Tuesday. When the humidity is factored in, the heat index will reach 105 to 110 degrees in many areas. Little relief is expected at night, as nighttime lows only drop into the 70s, with some of the urban areas possibly staying above 80. A backdoor cold front may bring some relief to parts of New England, possibly as far south as the New York City area on Wednesday, but heat and humidity will continue across the Mid-Atlantic states.

Temperatures could approach 100 across much of the Northeast on Tuesday. Image provided by Weathermodels.com

While heat is making headlines across the eastern half of the nation, in the Northern Rockies, a late-season winter storm is moving in. A storm system moving in will bring strong winds and heavy precipitation to the region today and into Sunday. Sustained winds of 30-40 mph with gusts in excess of 60 mph are expected in some areas. Across the higher elevations of western Montana and eastern Idaho snow levels have fallen as low as 5000 feet. Above that level, snowfall totals of 4-8 inches are expected by Sunday morning, with totals of 10-20 inches expected once you get above 6000 feet. Winter Storm Warnings and Winter Weather Advisories have been issued for much of this region. The chilly weather won’t last long, as temperatures return to near to above normal levels across the region by Tuesday.

Heavy snow is expected across the higher elevations of Montana and Idaho this weekend. Image provided by Weathermodels.com

Hot and Humid Weather and Severe Storms Target the East Coast

The summer solstice occurs at 10:41pm Friday, marking the official start of astronomical summer in the Northern Hemisphere. Summer weather will arrive along the East Coast just before that.

Astronomical summer begins Friday night. Image provided by the National Weather Service.

A frontal system extending from the Great Lakes into Southern Plains will slowly make its way eastward over the next few days. Ahead of the front, warm and humid air will result in an unstable atmosphere, with showers and thunderstorms developing. This front produced severe weather on Tuesday from the Front Range of the Rockies into the Central and Southern Plains, and severe thunderstorms will likely be more widespread on Wednesday from the Southern Plains into the Great Lakes. Some of the stronger storms may produce damaging winds, large hail, torrential downpours, and tornadoes, especially across parts of the Ohio Valley.

Severe weather is expected across a large swath of real estate from the Southern Plains to the Great Lakes on Wednesday. Image provided by the Storm Prediction Center.

The front will continue marching eastward, heading toward the East Coast on Thursday. Ahead of the front, hot and humid weather is expected, especially along the heavily-populated I-95 corridor. For parts of the Northeast, especially from the New York City area into Southern New England, this could be the first time the mercury reaches 90 since August 28, 2024. For areas farther south, from Philadelphia into North Carolina, temperatures already reached or exceeded 90 at least once this year but could get into the middle 90s on Thursday. Accompanying the heat will be humid conditions, with dewpoints getting into the 70s for much of the region. This will result in heat indices in the middle to upper 90s for many areas, possibly over 100 from Washington southward to North Carolina.

The heat index will get well into 90s and lower 100s for much of the East Coast Thursday afternoon. Image provided by WeatherBell.

Luckily, the heat and humidity will be short-lived. The aforementioned cold front will move into the region during the afternoon and evening, producing more showers and thunderstorms, some of which could be strong to severe. The timing of the front will help determine where the strongest storms develop, but the main threats with any storms that do form are damaging winds, heavy downpours, and hail, with a few tornadoes possible.

Severe weather is possible on Thursday from parts of New England to the Carolinas. Image provided by the Storm Prediction Center

Drier weather settles into the East behind the front for Friday and Saturday, though temperatures will remain near to above normal. There’s a good chance that much of the Northeast will see its streak of 13 consecutive Saturdays with rainfall finally come to an end, but that is not guaranteed yet. Some models are showing the potential for a cluster of thunderstorms to develop in the Northern Plains Friday night, then race across the Northern Great Lakes and into parts of Northern New York and New England by Saturday night. Beyond that forecast models are showing the potential for a ridge of high pressure to settle into the East Coast for the first half of next week, resulting in an extended period of hot and humid weather.

A ridge of high pressure could bring another shot of heat and humidity to the East Coast early next week. Image provided by Pivotal Weather.

Severe Weather Season Off to a Fast Start

The United States is notorious for its crazy weather, especially during the spring. There are dozens of tornado outbreaks yearly, especially through the Midwestern region, otherwise known as Tornado Alley. As of June 4th, more than 1,000 tornadoes have been reported to the Storm Prediction Center. One significant outbreak of this year occurred between May 15th and 16th.

So far in 2025, 1051 tornadoes have been reported, more than 200 over the average. Image provided by the Storm Prediction Center.

On May 15th, a low-pressure system was developing in the Central Plains, with two fronts extending from this system: a warm front moving from the Ohio Valley to the Great Lakes and a cold front moving into the Mississippi Valley from the Central Plains. The moderate instability between these fronts led the Storm Prediction Center to issue an outlook with an enhanced risk for severe weather for eastern Minnesota, central Wisconsin, Lake Michigan, northern Indiana, and northeastern Illinois.

On May 15, a large portion of the Upper Great Lakes was at an enhanced risk of severe weather. Image provided by the Storm Prediction Center.

The severe weather threat continued the following day as the system moved from the Northern Plains into the Upper Mississippi Valley with the area of instability over the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. The Storm Prediction Center issued an outlook with an enhanced risk of severe weather for most of the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys and eastern areas of the Lower Mississippi Valley, along with a moderate risk for much of Kentucky, northwestern Tennessee, southeastern Missouri, southern Illinois and Indiana.

A Severe Weather Outbreak was expected across parts of the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys on May 16. Image provided by the Storm Prediction Center.

By the end of this outbreak, 56 confirmed tornadoes had occurred, including three EF-3 and two EF-4 tornadoes. Unfortunately, 27 confirmed fatalities and more than 60 reported injuries were reported. The longest and deadliest tornado occurred near the end of the outbreak in Eastern Kentucky.

At 10:27 pm EDT on May 16th, the tornado touched down northeast of Jamestown, Kentucky, located in Russell County, and near Kentucky State Route 619. According to the NWS, the tornado may have briefly lifted for a few hundred yards due to the sporadic damage near the initial touchdown point. The tornado continued east as it intensified, crossing through several communities and leaving high-end EF-1 to EF-2 damage in its wake before crossing into Pulaski County. Here, it caused significant damage, especially in the towns of Fabush and Nancy, before continuing east into Somerset. In this community, the tornado gained enough strength to be rated an EF-3. With this strength, it continued toward the Daniel Boone National Forest, and satellite imagery across this region showed that the tornado was almost a mile wide. As the tornado exited the National Forest, it moved into the south side of London, where it continued strengthening. This densely populated area was where the heaviest damage and most casualties occurred. The tornado crossed through the Sunshine Hills subdivision, causing several homes to be removed from their foundations. Surveyors in this area had agreed that at this time, the tornado had once again gained enough strength to increase its rating to an EF-4, with up to 170 miles per hour wind speeds. The tornado continued toward the London-Corbin Airport, losing strength and being downgraded to an EF-3. Beyond the airport, where several aircraft and hangars were damaged and destroyed, it lost significant strength while still leaving a path of destruction at the Crooked Creek Golf Course, Laurel County Fairgrounds, and neighboring subdivisions. The tornado finally lifted off the ground just before midnight EDT, leaving a nearly 60-mile path of destruction, with 19 fatalities.

Saharan Dust Suppressing Tropical Activity in the Atlantic

Atlantic hurricane season is off to a slow start, which is fairly normal despite the early start in many recent years, and one of the main reason has been Saharan Dust.

Saharan Dust and dry air covers much of the Tropical Atlantic and Caribbean. Image provided by the University of Wisconsin-Madison.

In the mid-latitudes, most systems move from west to east, but in the tropics, it’s the opposite, with systems moving from east to west. We see this all the time with tropical waves and once they develop, most tropical systems head towards the west across the Atlantic. Early in the season though, these easterly winds will send large plumes of sand and dust off the Saharan Desert and into the Atlantic, where the prevailing winds carry them across the ocean.

Satellite loop showing a plume of Saharan dust crossing the Atlantic and Caribbean. Loop provided by NOAA.

As these plumes move across the Atlantic they suppress shower activity, preventing any storms from getting organized. They also limit the amount of sunlight getting through, which keeps the ocean temperatures a little cooler, especially in the Main Development Region of the central and eastern Atlantic. Ocean temperatures in this region are generally too cool for any systems to develop until we get into the latter half of July in a typical season. Tropical systems need to be over water that is 26 Celsius (79 Fahrenheit) or warmer to maintain their intensity or strengthen.

Current sea surface temperatures across the Atlantic. Image provided by Tropical Tidbits.

As the Saharan Dust reaches the Caribbean, it can have detrimental effects on the islands. In additional to produce poor air quality, the lack of cloud cover and shower activity results in very warm to hot temperatures across the islands. Instead of high temperatures in the upper 80s to near 90, temperatures can soar into the lower to middle 90s, with heat indices well in excess of 100. Some of these plumes can make their way into the Gulf and across parts of Florida, the Southeast, and Texas, resulting in hazy conditions.

Model forecast for the progression of Saharan dust across the tropics. Loop provided by WeatherBell.

While water temperatures are not yet warm enough to support tropical systems across the Main Development Region, they are plenty warm enough across the Caribbean, Gulf, and off the Southeast Coast near the Gulf Stream. At this time of year, we typically see clusters of showers and thunderstorms from southern Mexico across Central America and into the western Caribbean. These storms are part of the larger Central American Gyre, a very broad rotating area of showers and thunderstorms that can result in very heavy rain and flooding in parts of Central America. Sometimes you’ll see activity break off from this gyre and develop into a tropical depression or tropical system on either the Caribbean side or the eastern Pacific side of Central America. While nothing is imminent, this is an area to watch for development early in the season.

Most early season storms will likely develop in either the Gulf, Western Caribbean, or near the Bahamas. Image provided by the National Hurricane Center.

Another area that needs to be watched is near the Bahamas and off the Southeast coast. As cold fronts stall out and dissipate in this region, they can leave behind clusters of showers and thunderstorms. If they stay over the warm waters of the Gulf Stream long enough, they could eventually develop into a system. This is something that we are watching at the moment. Showers and thunderstorms have been producing heavy rain across Florida for the past few days, and will slowly drift northeastward this week. Some of the forecast models show the potential for a weak area of low pressure to develop off the Southeast coast, but whether or not it is tropical is yet to be determined. The system is likely to remain very weak, though it may produce some heavy rain and gusty winds for portions of the Carolinas, but it will get absorbed by another cold front this weekend, which will usher it out to sea and away from the East Coast.

Forecasts models show the potential for a weak system to develop near the Carolinas later this week. Loop provided by Pivotal Weather.

Outlook for the Upcoming 2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season

Atlantic hurricane season officially starts on Sunday June 1st and runs through Sunday November 30th, and indications are that the season maybe off to an early and active start.

List of names for storms that form during the 2025 Hurricane Season. Image provided by NOAA.

The 2024 season was an above normal season by the numbers, with 18 named storms, 11 hurricanes, and 5 major hurricanes. The season got off to a slower start than recent years, with only 3 storms through the beginning of August, and 5 through Labor Day, but 8 named storms formed in a 4 week span between September 9 and October 5. Hurricane Helene made the most headlines, hitting the Big Bend region of Florida area as a Category 4 hurricane on September 27, producing catastrophic wind damage and flooding in parts of the Carolinas.

Radar loop showing Hurricane Helene approaching and making landfall in Florida. Loop provided by Brian McNoldy, Univ. of Miami, Rosenstiel School

Hurricane Milton was the strongest storm of the season, reaching Category 5 intensity. The estimated minimum pressure in the storm of 895mb tied it with 2005’s Hurricane Rita for the 4th lowest pressure in the Atlantic Basin. Milton made landfall near Siesta Key, Florida on October 9 as a Category 3 hurricane. The other storms to make landfall in the US were Hurricane Beryl in central Texas on July 8, Hurricane Debby which hit the Florida Big Bend on August 5, and Hurricane Francine, which hit Louisiana on September 11. The 5 US hurricane landfalls is the most since 2020, when 6 hurricanes struck the United States. That year also featured 2 major hurricane landfalls, just like 2024. In 2021, a total of 8 tropical systems made landfall in the United States, but only 2 at hurricane strength.

2024 was another active hurricane season. Image provided by the National Hurricane Center.

Forecasts for the upcoming season are for an active season with between 14-19 named storms, several of which are expected to be hurricanes. Sea surface temperatures aren’t quite as high as this time last year, with cooler than normal temperatures being seen across the far eastern Atlantic, which should restrict any development off the coast of Africa until much later in the season. However, sea surface temperatures are warmer than normal across the Caribbean as well as in the Gulf, and this could lead to an early start to the season with systems developing close to the Caribbean, central America, Florida and the Gulf Coast. As we get deeper into the season, developing activity should start in portions of the central and eastern Atlantic. This will be helped by less in the way of solar activity this summer than last summer, which helped diminish the development of tropical waves in the far eastern and central Atlantic. There is no expected enhancement or decrease in tropical activity this summer due to ENSO which is forecast to be in a neutral phase. El Nino conditions usually decrease tropical activity in the Atlantic and La Nina usually helps enhance tropical activity.

Sea surface temperature anomalies as of mid-Mid. Images provided by NOAA.

The Tropical Meteorology Project at Colorado State, the first group to forecast how active a hurricane season would be, originally led by the late Dr. Bill Gray, will issue their updated forecast on June 11. Their initial forecast from April called for an above average season, with 17 named storms, 9 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes. NOAA released their forecast on May 22, and it calls for a 60% chance for above normal activity this season, with 13-19 named storms, 6-10 hurricanes, and 3-5 major hurricanes. Overall, 8 of the past 9 hurricane seasons have featured above normal activity across the Atlantic.

Forecasters at NOAA are expecting above normal activity again this season. Image provided by NOAA.

Despite the early start for the many of the past several years, the average date for the first named storm in the Atlantic is still June 20, and the average date for the first hurricane is August 11. Over 97% of all named storms in the Atlantic form between June 1 and November 30. Most early season storms tend to be on the weaker side. A hurricane hasn’t made landfall in the United States before July 1 since Hurricane Bonnie came ashore as a minimal hurricane near the Texas/Louisiana border on June 26, 1986.

Based on climatology, the most likely spots for an early season storm are off the Southeast coast, in the Gulf of Mexico, or the northwestern Caribbean. Image provided by the National Hurricane Center.

The number of storms that form in any given season has no correlation on how many storms (if any) will impact the United States. In 2010, 19 named storms were observed in the Atlantic, 12 of them became hurricanes, and 5 were major hurricanes. Only one storm made landfall in the United States, and that was Bonnie, which was a minimal tropical storm at landfall. In 1990, there were a total 14 named storms, 8 of them hurricanes and 1 major hurricane. Not a single one of them made landfall in the United States. On the flip side, only 7 named storms formed in 1992, and the first one didn’t develop until August 16. That storm, however, was named Andrew, and it made landfall just south of Miami as a category 5 storm. It only takes one storm to ruin your entire year.

Virtually the entire Atlantic and Gust Coast are susceptible to a direct strike from a hurricane. Image provided by the National Centers for Environmental Information

As always, you should get your weather information from trusted and reliable sources such as the National Hurricane Center during the tropical season.

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Hurricane Season Getting an Early Start

Early season forecasts called for an active hurricane season in the Atlantic due to a multitude of factors, and so far, we’re off to a fast start.

Satellite loop centered on Tropical Storm Beryl. Loop provided by Tropical Tidbits. (Click for loop)

Earlier in June, Tropical Storm Alberto brought heavy rain and some gusty winds to parts of Mexico and southern Texas. Given that this area has been in a drought, the rainfall was actually quite welcome, though probably not all at once. The moisture from Alberto also helped to get the Southwest Monsoon season off to an early start. Now as we approach the final days of June, we have a new Tropical Depression in the Atlantic, and it’s in a spot that we normally wouldn’t expect a storm to form this early in the season (more on that in a minute).

Tropical Storm Alberto brought very heavy rain to parts of northeastern Mexico earlier in June. Image provided by WeatherBell.

Tropical Depression Two developed Friday evening east of the Windward Islands and quickly strengthened into Tropical Storm Beryl overnight. As of 2pm, Tropical Storm Beryl was centered about 785 miles east-southeast of Barbados, moving toward the west at 23 mph. Maximum sustained winds were near 65 mph. Beryl will likely become a hurricane this evening or tonight, and continue strengthening as it approaches the Windward Islands late Sunday into early Monday. Hurricane Watches and Tropical Storm Watches are in effect for several of the islands in the southeastern Caribbean. Once it passes the islands, it should continue west-northwestward across the Caribbean, but obviously other factors can impact the exact track that it takes, as well as the intensity the storm reaches. Given that these forecasts have considerable uncertainty beyond 3-4 days, it is too early to speculate on what other locations it could impact toward the middle of next week and how strong it would be.

Forecast track for Tropical Storm Beryl. Image provided by the National Hurricane Center.

We’ve been keeping a close eye on this system for a few days now as the tropical wave responsible for the system has been crossing the Atlantic. The wave stayed rather far south, which is what helped it develop. To the north, there has been some Saharan Dust making its way across the Atlantic, and wind shear has been higher. Both of those factors inhibit the development of tropical systems, but by staying farther south and avoiding those, it has taken advantage of favorable conditions to gradually get organized this week.

Forecast tracks for Beryl from the members of several model ensembles. Loop provided by Tomer Burg. (Click for loop)

Beryl is only the 7th named storm to form east of the Caribbean during the month of June since 1851. The previous 6 storms were:

Unnamed Storm #2 in 1933
Tropical Storm Ana in 1979
Tropical Storm Bret in 2017
Tropical Storm Bonnie in 2022
Tropical Storm Bret in 2023
Tropical Storm Cindy in 2023

Of those six storms, only the 1933 storm reached hurricane strength during the month of June.

There are a couple of areas of interest across the tropics at this time Image provided by the National Hurricane Center.

Tropical Depression Two isn’t the only storm we’re keeping an eye at this time. A tropical wave and associated area of low pressure are crossing the Yucatan Peninsula this afternoon. Once it moves into the Bay of Campeche tonight, there is a small window for the system to develop. It could become a tropical depression or a tropical storm by Sunday before moving inland once again. Whether it develops or not, it will bring another round of heavy rain into northeastern Mexico.

Parts of eastern Mexico could pick up another 10-20 inches of rain over the next few days. Image provided by Pivotal Weather.

There’s also another tropical wave way out in the Atlantic, several hundred miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. It’s disorganized right now, but as it moves westward, conditions will be favorable for development, and it could take a track similar to Beryl, possibly impacting the Lesser Antilles by early next week.

Hurricane Season Begins on Saturday

Atlantic hurricane season officially starts on Saturday June 1 and runs through November 30, and all indications are that it is going to be a very active one.

List of names for storms that form during the 2023 Hurricane Season. Image provided by NOAA.

The 2023 season was an above normal season by the numbers, with 20 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes, but the bulk of the activity occurred during a 7-week span between August 20 and October 6. The 20 named storms was tied with 1933 for the fourth most in a single season. Hurricane Idalia made the most headlines, hitting the Big Bend region of Florida area as a strong Category 3 hurricane on August 30 after peaking as a Category 4 storm earlier that day. Hurricane Lee was the strongest storm of the season, reaching Category 5 intensity. It passed west of Bermuda and for a time looked like a potential threat to New England, eventually making landfall as a strong extratropical storm in southwestern Nova Scotia on September 16. The only other storms to make landfall in the US were Tropical Storm Harold in southern Texas on August 22 and Tropical Storm Ophelia in North Carolina on September 23. With only 3 US landfalls, and just 1 at hurricane strength, this was a welcome change from 2021 when a total of 21 storms formed, 3rd most ever in a single season, and a total of eight of them made landfall in the United States.

2023 was another active hurricane season. Image provided by the National Hurricane Center.

Forecasts for the upcoming season are nearly unanimous that a very active season is expected. Sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic are well above normal, near record highs in places, which would tend to lead toward a more active year. We also are transition from an El Nino to a La Nina in the Pacific, and that tends to increase Atlantic tropical activity. NOAA issued their seasonal hurricane outlook on May 23, and it calls for a 85 percent chance for an above normal season, a 10 percent chance for a near normal season, and a 5 percent chance for a below normal season. Most of the other hurricane outlooks issued by various outlets are also expecting an above to well above normal season, due to the signals mentioned above. An average season consists of 14.4 named storms, of which 7.2 become hurricanes and 3.2 become major hurricanes (Category 3 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson scale). NOAA’s forecast for this season calls for 17-25 named storms, 8-13 hurricanes, and 4-7 major hurricanes. The Tropical Meteorology Project at Colorado State, the first group to forecast how active a hurricane season would be, originally led by the late Dr. Bill Gray, will issue their updated forecast on June 11. Their initial forecast from April called for a well above average season, with 23 named storms, 11 hurricanes, and 5 major hurricanes.

Forecasts call for a very active Hurricane Season. Image provided by NOAA.

Virtually the entire Atlantic and Gulf Coast are susceptible to a direct strike from a hurricane. Image provided by the National Centers for Environmental Information

As always, you should get your weather information from a trusted source, especially when dealing with tropical systems. Much like with snowstorms in the winter, there will be plenty of hype and exaggeration on Twitter and Facebook, as well as people posting doom and gloom maps showing how a thunderstorm near the coast of Africa will develop into a Category 5 storm and head right for the East Coast in the next 2 weeks. We’re not among that group, we give you facts and our best forecasts, without any hype. It’s always best to prepare ahead of the season. Chances are, you won’t have anything to worry about, but in case you do, it’s always good to be prepared.