General Weather | Hometown Forecast Services

Severe Weather Season Off to a Fast Start

The United States is notorious for its crazy weather, especially during the spring. There are dozens of tornado outbreaks yearly, especially through the Midwestern region, otherwise known as Tornado Alley. As of June 4th, more than 1,000 tornadoes have been reported to the Storm Prediction Center. One significant outbreak of this year occurred between May 15th and 16th.

So far in 2025, 1051 tornadoes have been reported, more than 200 over the average. Image provided by the Storm Prediction Center.

On May 15th, a low-pressure system was developing in the Central Plains, with two fronts extending from this system: a warm front moving from the Ohio Valley to the Great Lakes and a cold front moving into the Mississippi Valley from the Central Plains. The moderate instability between these fronts led the Storm Prediction Center to issue an outlook with an enhanced risk for severe weather for eastern Minnesota, central Wisconsin, Lake Michigan, northern Indiana, and northeastern Illinois.

On May 15, a large portion of the Upper Great Lakes was at an enhanced risk of severe weather. Image provided by the Storm Prediction Center.

The severe weather threat continued the following day as the system moved from the Northern Plains into the Upper Mississippi Valley with the area of instability over the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. The Storm Prediction Center issued an outlook with an enhanced risk of severe weather for most of the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys and eastern areas of the Lower Mississippi Valley, along with a moderate risk for much of Kentucky, northwestern Tennessee, southeastern Missouri, southern Illinois and Indiana.

A Severe Weather Outbreak was expected across parts of the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys on May 16. Image provided by the Storm Prediction Center.

By the end of this outbreak, 56 confirmed tornadoes had occurred, including three EF-3 and two EF-4 tornadoes. Unfortunately, 27 confirmed fatalities and more than 60 reported injuries were reported. The longest and deadliest tornado occurred near the end of the outbreak in Eastern Kentucky.

At 10:27 pm EDT on May 16th, the tornado touched down northeast of Jamestown, Kentucky, located in Russell County, and near Kentucky State Route 619. According to the NWS, the tornado may have briefly lifted for a few hundred yards due to the sporadic damage near the initial touchdown point. The tornado continued east as it intensified, crossing through several communities and leaving high-end EF-1 to EF-2 damage in its wake before crossing into Pulaski County. Here, it caused significant damage, especially in the towns of Fabush and Nancy, before continuing east into Somerset. In this community, the tornado gained enough strength to be rated an EF-3. With this strength, it continued toward the Daniel Boone National Forest, and satellite imagery across this region showed that the tornado was almost a mile wide. As the tornado exited the National Forest, it moved into the south side of London, where it continued strengthening. This densely populated area was where the heaviest damage and most casualties occurred. The tornado crossed through the Sunshine Hills subdivision, causing several homes to be removed from their foundations. Surveyors in this area had agreed that at this time, the tornado had once again gained enough strength to increase its rating to an EF-4, with up to 170 miles per hour wind speeds. The tornado continued toward the London-Corbin Airport, losing strength and being downgraded to an EF-3. Beyond the airport, where several aircraft and hangars were damaged and destroyed, it lost significant strength while still leaving a path of destruction at the Crooked Creek Golf Course, Laurel County Fairgrounds, and neighboring subdivisions. The tornado finally lifted off the ground just before midnight EDT, leaving a nearly 60-mile path of destruction, with 19 fatalities.

Saharan Dust Suppressing Tropical Activity in the Atlantic

Atlantic hurricane season is off to a slow start, which is fairly normal despite the early start in many recent years, and one of the main reason has been Saharan Dust.

Saharan Dust and dry air covers much of the Tropical Atlantic and Caribbean. Image provided by the University of Wisconsin-Madison.

In the mid-latitudes, most systems move from west to east, but in the tropics, it’s the opposite, with systems moving from east to west. We see this all the time with tropical waves and once they develop, most tropical systems head towards the west across the Atlantic. Early in the season though, these easterly winds will send large plumes of sand and dust off the Saharan Desert and into the Atlantic, where the prevailing winds carry them across the ocean.

Satellite loop showing a plume of Saharan dust crossing the Atlantic and Caribbean. Loop provided by NOAA.

As these plumes move across the Atlantic they suppress shower activity, preventing any storms from getting organized. They also limit the amount of sunlight getting through, which keeps the ocean temperatures a little cooler, especially in the Main Development Region of the central and eastern Atlantic. Ocean temperatures in this region are generally too cool for any systems to develop until we get into the latter half of July in a typical season. Tropical systems need to be over water that is 26 Celsius (79 Fahrenheit) or warmer to maintain their intensity or strengthen.

Current sea surface temperatures across the Atlantic. Image provided by Tropical Tidbits.

As the Saharan Dust reaches the Caribbean, it can have detrimental effects on the islands. In additional to produce poor air quality, the lack of cloud cover and shower activity results in very warm to hot temperatures across the islands. Instead of high temperatures in the upper 80s to near 90, temperatures can soar into the lower to middle 90s, with heat indices well in excess of 100. Some of these plumes can make their way into the Gulf and across parts of Florida, the Southeast, and Texas, resulting in hazy conditions.

Model forecast for the progression of Saharan dust across the tropics. Loop provided by WeatherBell.

While water temperatures are not yet warm enough to support tropical systems across the Main Development Region, they are plenty warm enough across the Caribbean, Gulf, and off the Southeast Coast near the Gulf Stream. At this time of year, we typically see clusters of showers and thunderstorms from southern Mexico across Central America and into the western Caribbean. These storms are part of the larger Central American Gyre, a very broad rotating area of showers and thunderstorms that can result in very heavy rain and flooding in parts of Central America. Sometimes you’ll see activity break off from this gyre and develop into a tropical depression or tropical system on either the Caribbean side or the eastern Pacific side of Central America. While nothing is imminent, this is an area to watch for development early in the season.

Most early season storms will likely develop in either the Gulf, Western Caribbean, or near the Bahamas. Image provided by the National Hurricane Center.

Another area that needs to be watched is near the Bahamas and off the Southeast coast. As cold fronts stall out and dissipate in this region, they can leave behind clusters of showers and thunderstorms. If they stay over the warm waters of the Gulf Stream long enough, they could eventually develop into a system. This is something that we are watching at the moment. Showers and thunderstorms have been producing heavy rain across Florida for the past few days, and will slowly drift northeastward this week. Some of the forecast models show the potential for a weak area of low pressure to develop off the Southeast coast, but whether or not it is tropical is yet to be determined. The system is likely to remain very weak, though it may produce some heavy rain and gusty winds for portions of the Carolinas, but it will get absorbed by another cold front this weekend, which will usher it out to sea and away from the East Coast.

Forecasts models show the potential for a weak system to develop near the Carolinas later this week. Loop provided by Pivotal Weather.

Outlook for the Upcoming 2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season

Atlantic hurricane season officially starts on Sunday June 1st and runs through Sunday November 30th, and indications are that the season maybe off to an early and active start.

List of names for storms that form during the 2025 Hurricane Season. Image provided by NOAA.

The 2024 season was an above normal season by the numbers, with 18 named storms, 11 hurricanes, and 5 major hurricanes. The season got off to a slower start than recent years, with only 3 storms through the beginning of August, and 5 through Labor Day, but 8 named storms formed in a 4 week span between September 9 and October 5. Hurricane Helene made the most headlines, hitting the Big Bend region of Florida area as a Category 4 hurricane on September 27, producing catastrophic wind damage and flooding in parts of the Carolinas.

Radar loop showing Hurricane Helene approaching and making landfall in Florida. Loop provided by Brian McNoldy, Univ. of Miami, Rosenstiel School

Hurricane Milton was the strongest storm of the season, reaching Category 5 intensity. The estimated minimum pressure in the storm of 895mb tied it with 2005’s Hurricane Rita for the 4th lowest pressure in the Atlantic Basin. Milton made landfall near Siesta Key, Florida on October 9 as a Category 3 hurricane. The other storms to make landfall in the US were Hurricane Beryl in central Texas on July 8, Hurricane Debby which hit the Florida Big Bend on August 5, and Hurricane Francine, which hit Louisiana on September 11. The 5 US hurricane landfalls is the most since 2020, when 6 hurricanes struck the United States. That year also featured 2 major hurricane landfalls, just like 2024. In 2021, a total of 8 tropical systems made landfall in the United States, but only 2 at hurricane strength.

2024 was another active hurricane season. Image provided by the National Hurricane Center.

Forecasts for the upcoming season are for an active season with between 14-19 named storms, several of which are expected to be hurricanes. Sea surface temperatures aren’t quite as high as this time last year, with cooler than normal temperatures being seen across the far eastern Atlantic, which should restrict any development off the coast of Africa until much later in the season. However, sea surface temperatures are warmer than normal across the Caribbean as well as in the Gulf, and this could lead to an early start to the season with systems developing close to the Caribbean, central America, Florida and the Gulf Coast. As we get deeper into the season, developing activity should start in portions of the central and eastern Atlantic. This will be helped by less in the way of solar activity this summer than last summer, which helped diminish the development of tropical waves in the far eastern and central Atlantic. There is no expected enhancement or decrease in tropical activity this summer due to ENSO which is forecast to be in a neutral phase. El Nino conditions usually decrease tropical activity in the Atlantic and La Nina usually helps enhance tropical activity.

Sea surface temperature anomalies as of mid-Mid. Images provided by NOAA.

The Tropical Meteorology Project at Colorado State, the first group to forecast how active a hurricane season would be, originally led by the late Dr. Bill Gray, will issue their updated forecast on June 11. Their initial forecast from April called for an above average season, with 17 named storms, 9 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes. NOAA released their forecast on May 22, and it calls for a 60% chance for above normal activity this season, with 13-19 named storms, 6-10 hurricanes, and 3-5 major hurricanes. Overall, 8 of the past 9 hurricane seasons have featured above normal activity across the Atlantic.

Forecasters at NOAA are expecting above normal activity again this season. Image provided by NOAA.

Despite the early start for the many of the past several years, the average date for the first named storm in the Atlantic is still June 20, and the average date for the first hurricane is August 11. Over 97% of all named storms in the Atlantic form between June 1 and November 30. Most early season storms tend to be on the weaker side. A hurricane hasn’t made landfall in the United States before July 1 since Hurricane Bonnie came ashore as a minimal hurricane near the Texas/Louisiana border on June 26, 1986.

Based on climatology, the most likely spots for an early season storm are off the Southeast coast, in the Gulf of Mexico, or the northwestern Caribbean. Image provided by the National Hurricane Center.

The number of storms that form in any given season has no correlation on how many storms (if any) will impact the United States. In 2010, 19 named storms were observed in the Atlantic, 12 of them became hurricanes, and 5 were major hurricanes. Only one storm made landfall in the United States, and that was Bonnie, which was a minimal tropical storm at landfall. In 1990, there were a total 14 named storms, 8 of them hurricanes and 1 major hurricane. Not a single one of them made landfall in the United States. On the flip side, only 7 named storms formed in 1992, and the first one didn’t develop until August 16. That storm, however, was named Andrew, and it made landfall just south of Miami as a category 5 storm. It only takes one storm to ruin your entire year.

Virtually the entire Atlantic and Gust Coast are susceptible to a direct strike from a hurricane. Image provided by the National Centers for Environmental Information

As always, you should get your weather information from trusted and reliable sources such as the National Hurricane Center during the tropical season.

California Wildfires – Bloomberg Television

Chief Meteorologist Rob Carolan spoke with Bloomberg Television about the California wildfires and the meteorology behind them.

Hurricane Season Getting an Early Start

Early season forecasts called for an active hurricane season in the Atlantic due to a multitude of factors, and so far, we’re off to a fast start.

Satellite loop centered on Tropical Storm Beryl. Loop provided by Tropical Tidbits. (Click for loop)

Earlier in June, Tropical Storm Alberto brought heavy rain and some gusty winds to parts of Mexico and southern Texas. Given that this area has been in a drought, the rainfall was actually quite welcome, though probably not all at once. The moisture from Alberto also helped to get the Southwest Monsoon season off to an early start. Now as we approach the final days of June, we have a new Tropical Depression in the Atlantic, and it’s in a spot that we normally wouldn’t expect a storm to form this early in the season (more on that in a minute).

Tropical Storm Alberto brought very heavy rain to parts of northeastern Mexico earlier in June. Image provided by WeatherBell.

Tropical Depression Two developed Friday evening east of the Windward Islands and quickly strengthened into Tropical Storm Beryl overnight. As of 2pm, Tropical Storm Beryl was centered about 785 miles east-southeast of Barbados, moving toward the west at 23 mph. Maximum sustained winds were near 65 mph. Beryl will likely become a hurricane this evening or tonight, and continue strengthening as it approaches the Windward Islands late Sunday into early Monday. Hurricane Watches and Tropical Storm Watches are in effect for several of the islands in the southeastern Caribbean. Once it passes the islands, it should continue west-northwestward across the Caribbean, but obviously other factors can impact the exact track that it takes, as well as the intensity the storm reaches. Given that these forecasts have considerable uncertainty beyond 3-4 days, it is too early to speculate on what other locations it could impact toward the middle of next week and how strong it would be.

Forecast track for Tropical Storm Beryl. Image provided by the National Hurricane Center.

We’ve been keeping a close eye on this system for a few days now as the tropical wave responsible for the system has been crossing the Atlantic. The wave stayed rather far south, which is what helped it develop. To the north, there has been some Saharan Dust making its way across the Atlantic, and wind shear has been higher. Both of those factors inhibit the development of tropical systems, but by staying farther south and avoiding those, it has taken advantage of favorable conditions to gradually get organized this week.

Forecast tracks for Beryl from the members of several model ensembles. Loop provided by Tomer Burg. (Click for loop)

Beryl is only the 7th named storm to form east of the Caribbean during the month of June since 1851. The previous 6 storms were:

Unnamed Storm #2 in 1933
Tropical Storm Ana in 1979
Tropical Storm Bret in 2017
Tropical Storm Bonnie in 2022
Tropical Storm Bret in 2023
Tropical Storm Cindy in 2023

Of those six storms, only the 1933 storm reached hurricane strength during the month of June.

There are a couple of areas of interest across the tropics at this time Image provided by the National Hurricane Center.

Tropical Depression Two isn’t the only storm we’re keeping an eye at this time. A tropical wave and associated area of low pressure are crossing the Yucatan Peninsula this afternoon. Once it moves into the Bay of Campeche tonight, there is a small window for the system to develop. It could become a tropical depression or a tropical storm by Sunday before moving inland once again. Whether it develops or not, it will bring another round of heavy rain into northeastern Mexico.

Parts of eastern Mexico could pick up another 10-20 inches of rain over the next few days. Image provided by Pivotal Weather.

There’s also another tropical wave way out in the Atlantic, several hundred miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. It’s disorganized right now, but as it moves westward, conditions will be favorable for development, and it could take a track similar to Beryl, possibly impacting the Lesser Antilles by early next week.

Hurricane Season Begins on Saturday

Atlantic hurricane season officially starts on Saturday June 1 and runs through November 30, and all indications are that it is going to be a very active one.

List of names for storms that form during the 2023 Hurricane Season. Image provided by NOAA.

The 2023 season was an above normal season by the numbers, with 20 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes, but the bulk of the activity occurred during a 7-week span between August 20 and October 6. The 20 named storms was tied with 1933 for the fourth most in a single season. Hurricane Idalia made the most headlines, hitting the Big Bend region of Florida area as a strong Category 3 hurricane on August 30 after peaking as a Category 4 storm earlier that day. Hurricane Lee was the strongest storm of the season, reaching Category 5 intensity. It passed west of Bermuda and for a time looked like a potential threat to New England, eventually making landfall as a strong extratropical storm in southwestern Nova Scotia on September 16. The only other storms to make landfall in the US were Tropical Storm Harold in southern Texas on August 22 and Tropical Storm Ophelia in North Carolina on September 23. With only 3 US landfalls, and just 1 at hurricane strength, this was a welcome change from 2021 when a total of 21 storms formed, 3rd most ever in a single season, and a total of eight of them made landfall in the United States.

2023 was another active hurricane season. Image provided by the National Hurricane Center.

Forecasts for the upcoming season are nearly unanimous that a very active season is expected. Sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic are well above normal, near record highs in places, which would tend to lead toward a more active year. We also are transition from an El Nino to a La Nina in the Pacific, and that tends to increase Atlantic tropical activity. NOAA issued their seasonal hurricane outlook on May 23, and it calls for a 85 percent chance for an above normal season, a 10 percent chance for a near normal season, and a 5 percent chance for a below normal season. Most of the other hurricane outlooks issued by various outlets are also expecting an above to well above normal season, due to the signals mentioned above. An average season consists of 14.4 named storms, of which 7.2 become hurricanes and 3.2 become major hurricanes (Category 3 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson scale). NOAA’s forecast for this season calls for 17-25 named storms, 8-13 hurricanes, and 4-7 major hurricanes. The Tropical Meteorology Project at Colorado State, the first group to forecast how active a hurricane season would be, originally led by the late Dr. Bill Gray, will issue their updated forecast on June 11. Their initial forecast from April called for a well above average season, with 23 named storms, 11 hurricanes, and 5 major hurricanes.

Forecasts call for a very active Hurricane Season. Image provided by NOAA.

Virtually the entire Atlantic and Gulf Coast are susceptible to a direct strike from a hurricane. Image provided by the National Centers for Environmental Information

As always, you should get your weather information from a trusted source, especially when dealing with tropical systems. Much like with snowstorms in the winter, there will be plenty of hype and exaggeration on Twitter and Facebook, as well as people posting doom and gloom maps showing how a thunderstorm near the coast of Africa will develop into a Category 5 storm and head right for the East Coast in the next 2 weeks. We’re not among that group, we give you facts and our best forecasts, without any hype. It’s always best to prepare ahead of the season. Chances are, you won’t have anything to worry about, but in case you do, it’s always good to be prepared.

Tropical Update – September 14, 2023

Hometown Forecast Service Tropical outlook
Forecast prepared: Thursday September 14, 2023 11 AM EDT
Meteorologist: Rob Carolan

Hurricane Lee is currently located at 30.4 N and 68.3 W which is 750 miles south
of Nantucket, MA. The storm is currently moving north at 14 mph. Top winds
have weakened to 90 mph. A tropical storm warning is in effect from Woods
Hole, MA to Hull, MA while a tropical storm watch is in effect from west of Woods Hole to Watch Point, RI and from Hull, MA to Stonington, ME.

Satellite loop showing Hurricane Lee off the East Coast. Loop provided by NOAA.

Guidance from the latest computer models and the National Hurricane Center
suggest that Lee will continue to move northward today and begin to accelerate
as it is affected by a cold front moving off the East Coast. Shearing, cooler water
temperatures and the faster motion should all lead to further weakening of the
storm between now and the time it makes landfall somewhere in Atlantic Canada
Saturday morning. The storm may shift a little west of north in its motion Friday
night while it’s near the Gulf of Maine but most of the projected course until
landfall is either towards the north or north-northeast. The core of the storm will
pass well east of New England resulting in the region being on the western side
of the storm which is the weaker side. Conditions across the area will start to
turn wetter tomorrow evening and any rain with the system should end by midday or early afternoon on Saturday. Winds will gradually increase Friday night before peaking Saturday midday. Most areas of the southern New England coast could see wind gusts over 35 mph but the Cape and Islands will likely see gusts over 50 mph. The guidance earlier this morning showed yet another shift of the track further east which should continue to result in the worst of the weather with Lee out over the Atlantic to the east of southern and central New England. However due to the past several months of unusually wet weather, there’s a higher threat of power outages due to downed trees. It will be easier with the soil being so saturated and trees fully in leaf for some trees to be pushed over by the winds we will see out of the north from Friday night and into Saturday afternoon. Based upon the latest guidance 1-2 inches is possible east of the Cape Cod Canal with much lighter amounts to the north and west. Steadiest and heaviest rains will be across Cape Cod and the Islands.

Forecast track for Hurricane Lee. Image provided by the National Hurricane Center.

Storm is currently located: Hurricane Lee is located at 30.4 N and 68.3 W,
750 miles south of Nantucket, Massachusetts

Potential risk areas for landfall next 24 hours: None

Strength at time of landfall Nova Scotia or New Brunswick, Canada: Strong
extra-tropical storm

Development outlook for the next 24 hours: A new tropical depression may
develop in the Atlantic by Friday evening to the west of 45W.

Seasonal outlook: Above normal activity is expected for the remainder of the
season

Hilary Nears the Mexican Coast, The Atlantic is Waking Up

The Pacific continues to grab the headlines, but the Atlantic is getting active as we get closer to the peak of the season.

Hurricane Hilary has been downgraded to a Tropical Storm as it continues northward very close to the coast of the Baja California peninsula. As of 11am EDT, Hilary was centered about 220 miles south-southeast of San Diego, moving toward the north-northwest at 25 mph. Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph. Tropical Storm Warnings remain in effect for northern portions of the Baja California peninsula, as well as the southern California coast from the Mexican border northward to Point Mugu, including Catalina Island.

Satellite loop of Tropical Storm Hilary. Loop provided by NOAA.

Hilary is expected to continue weakening today as it passes very close to the Baja coastline and into southern California. Hilary will produce gusty winds and storm surge along the coast, with a few tornadoes possible across parts of the Southwest, but heavy rain and the resultant flooding are the most significant threat with this storm. Rainfall totals of 3-6 inches are likely across many locations in southern California and Nevada, with some totals in excess of 10 inches possible. In some of the desert locations, including Death Valley, this is more rain than they normally receive in an entire year. Widespread flooding is likely, including the San Diego, Los Angeles, and Las Vegas metropolitan areas. As Hilary continues to push northward and weakens, heavy rain will spread across the Great Basin, and Inland Northwest, with rainfall totals of 1-3 inches possible, likely producing some flooding in these areas as well.

Very heavy rainfall is expected across California and Nevada over the next few days. Image provided by Weathermodels.com

In the Atlantic, Saharan Dust has suppressed activity for the past few weeks, but now that it has moved out, there are several areas of interest, including a pair of storms.

The Atlantic has become quite active over the past few days. Images provided by the National Hurricane Center.

Tropical Storm Emily has developed about 1000 miles west-northwest of the Cabo Verde Islands, moving toward the west-northwest at 10 mph. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph. Emily is expected to continue toward the west-northwest for the next day or two, but conditions will become increasingly hostile, with wind shear increasing over the next few days. This will result in steady weakening of Emily, with it likely become extratropical on Monday or Tuesday. After that it will turn toward the northwest and north, heading out into the open waters of the Atlantic, without impacting any land areas.

Satellite loop of Tropical Storm Emily. Loop provided by Tropical Tidbits.

Tropical Depression Six is barely hanging on as an organized system about 625 miles east of the Northern Leeward Islands. Top winds are near 35 mph, and it is moving toward the west at 12 mph. Wind shear is ripping this system apart, and it is expected to dissipate over open water later today or tonight.

Forecast track for Tropical Depression Six. Image provided by the National Hurricane Center.

Another area of low pressure is moving across the southeastern Caribbean Sea this afternoon, producing numerous showers and thunderstorms across the eastern Caribbean. It should continue toward the west-northwest for the next day or two, and conditions are favorable for it to continue to develop. Reconnaissance aircraft are scheduled to investigate this system during the afternoon to check on the structure and strength of the system. It will continue to produce heavy rain and gusty winds across the northern and eastern Caribbean for the next few days, but it should turn more toward the north early this week, which will increase the threat to some of the islands, depending on when the turn occurs. Right now, it looks like Hispaniola will have the biggest threat, but this is predicated on when (or if) that turn occurs. It should eventually move north of the islands, possibly near the Turks and Caicos Islands, before heading out into the Atlantic. Once into the open waters of the Atlantic, it could become a potent storm system, but again, this is dependent on what it does in the next few days first.

Ensemble forecast tracks for the system in the eastern Caribbean. Image provided by Tomer Burg.

An area of low pressure that brought heavy rain and thunderstorms to the Bahamas and southern Florida has moved into the Gulf of Mexico this afternoon. It is expected to continue westward across the Gulf over the next few days, with some development possible. It could become a tropical depression toward midweek before approaching the Texas coastline. Whether it develops or not, it should bring some much-needed heavy rain to parts of central and southern Texas later this week, helping to not only put a dent in the ongoing drought in the region, but also provide some relief from the heat.

A system will bring much needed rainfall to parts of Texas this week. Image provided by Pivotal Weather.

Yet another tropical wave has moved off the African coast and into the eastern Atlantic. Conditions will be favorable for development over the next several days, and it could become a tropical depression later this week. If it does develop, it is expected to remain over open water, with no impact to land areas through at least next weekend.

The Week Ahead: November 14-20, 2022

Winter will finally make an appearance across a large portion of the nation during the upcoming week.

Low pressure moving across the Southwest will have a large impact on a good portion of the nation this week. Image provided by NOAA.

Low pressure will move out of the Southwest and across the Southern Plains today, before heading across the Deep South and then off the Mid-Atlantic coast by midweek. To the south, it will produce showers and thunderstorms across parts of Texas and eventually the Gulf Coast and the Southeast over the next few days. Some strong storms are possible, but a severe weather outbreak is not expected. The bigger story will be what takes place north of the system. Some light snow or a wintry mix will move across the Plains states today and into the Mississippi Valley tonight and Tuesday. While the snow won’t be heavy, a few inches could accumulate in some spots, which will be the first accumulating snow of the season for some locations.

Some locally heavy rain is possible along the Gulf Coast over the next few days. Image provided by Weathermodels.com

By later Tuesday, as the low moves off the Mid-Atlantic coast, a second, weaker low will also move across the Midwest, producing some light snow across this region, with rain across the Tennessee Valley. As both of these lows head eastward, precipitation will move into the Northeast. Precipitation may start as a wintry mix early Wednesday across the northern and western suburbs of New York and Boston, but for the cities of the I-95 corridor, this will be mostly a rainstorm. Farther inland, from central Pennsylvania into much of Upstate New York, and Northern New England, several inches of snow could accumulate before any potential changeover to rain. As the storm intensifies off the East Coast, heavier snow is possible in parts of northern and eastern Maine and into Atlantic Canada.

A swath of light to moderate snow is expected from the Southern Plains to the Northeast over the next few days. Image provided by WeatherBell.

While temperatures are currently below normal across most of the nation, even colder air will spill southward from Canada behind this storm. By the end of the week, some record lows are possible, especially in parts of the Plains States and Northern Rockies, where some sub-zero temperatures are possible. By the end of the week, below normal readings are likely across most of the nation except for the immediate West Coast, and parts of southern Florida. From the Appalachians westward to the Rockies, temperatures will be 15 to 30 degrees below normal for the end of the week and into next weekend.

Very cold air will invade much of the nation late this week. Image provided by Weathermodels.com.

As that cold air pours over the Great Lakes, some lake-effect snow is expected. Locations downwind of Lakes Superior and Michigan could see several inches of snow by mid-week, similar to what they had over the weekend. However, it’s the areas downwind of Lakes Erie and Ontario that could see some exceptionally heavy amounts. Totals could exceed a foot from Buffalo to Cleveland, with the location of the heaviest snowfall obviously dependent on the wind direction, but its the area east of Lake Ontario, specifically the Tug Hill Plateau of northern New York that could see the heaviest amounts.

Parts of northern and western New York could see some hefty snow totals later this week. Images provided by Pivotal Weather.

The Week Ahead: November 7-13, 2022

A very active week is expected across the nation this week, with everything from hurricanes to blizzards, and record highs to record lows expected.

The week is starting out active and will remain that way for the next several days. Image provided by NOAA.

Low pressure is moving into the Pacific Northwest this morning, with rain strong winds, and mountain snow expected. As this storm spreads inland, heavy rain will spread across most of the West, including all of California, with heavy snow across the higher elevations and through the Great Basin and into the Rockies. Winter Weather Advisories, Winter Storm Warnings, and High Wind Warnings are in effect for many locations already. Rainfall totals of 1-2 inches and locally heavier will be welcomed across California, helping to put a dent into the drought and aiding efforts to extinguish the many wildfires still burning across the West. Across the mountains, snowfall totals of 1-2 feet and locally heavier are expected in parts of the Cascades and Sierra Nevada, with up to a foot possible across the mountains of the Interior Northwest and Northern Rockies.

Heavy rain is expected across most of California over the next few days. Image provided by WeatherBell.

By Thursday, the system will move into the Plains and toward the Great Lakes. Ahead of the storm, record high temperatures are possible once again, with the threat of some severe weather in the Mississippi Valley. However, it’s across the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest where impact will be the greatest. The combination of strong winds, gusting to 40-50 mph, and heavy snow, possibly as much as 8-16 inches across parts of the Dakotas and northern Minnesota as well as the southern Canadian Prairies, will result in blizzard conditions at times later Thursday into Friday.

The models all have heavy snow forecast for the Dakotas and northern Minnesota, but differ on the amounts and placement. Images provided by Pivotal Weather.

Behind the storm, especially with fresh snowcover, some of the coldest air so far this fall will pour into the Rockies and Northern Plains with high temperatures for the end of the week and the weekend only in the teens and 20s, and some subzero low temperatures likely. As that storm continues into southeastern Canada, it will drag a cold front across the eastern third of the nation for the end of the week. By the time it reaches the East Coast late Saturday, nearly the entire nation will experience temperatures that are below normal for mid-November, a rather big change from what the eastern half of the nation has experiences for the past couple of weeks.

By Sunday, temperatures will be below normal across virtually the entire Lower 48. Image provided by Weathermodels.com

While all this is going on, we also need to pay attention to the tropics. Hurricane Season doesn’t officially end until November 30, and we’re keeping an eye on two separate areas at this time. The first is centered a few hundred miles east of Bermuda. As it drifts around over marginally warm waters, it could become a subtropical or tropical storm over the next day or two. It likely won’t last that long, as a strong cold front moving off the East Coast today will absorb this system by midweek and send it out over the colder waters of the North Atlantic.

The models are unanimous that the system east of Bermuda will not be a threat to land this week. Image provided by Tropical Tidbits.

The second area is a much bigger concern. A low pressure area few hundred miles north of Puerto Rico has been producing heavy rain across Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands for the past few days, with rainfall totals of 5-10 inches producing flooding in some locations. The system is expected to move northwestward while slowly organizing, and could become a tropical depression or storm over the next few days. Eventually, it will turn toward the west, passing close to or over the northern Bahamas, then heading toward the East Coast of Florida. Heavy rain, strong winds, and rough surf are likely across much of Florida as the system draws closer at mid-week. Some models have the storm close to hurricane strength before landfall somewhere across east-central Florida. After landfall, the mostly likely scenario is a turn toward the north and eventually northeast as a strong trough of low pressure moves into the Eastern US.

Ensemble forecasts for the track of a disturbance north of Puerto Rico. Image provided by Tomer Burg.

Once the system makes the turn, it will likely move back into the Atlantic and up the East Coast. While it will lose its characteristics, it will still produce heavy rain, gusty winds, and rough seas from the Carolinas northward to New England. Given its tropical origins, some of the rain could be especially heavy near the coast, with widespread totals of 2-4 inches possible. The strong cold front marching eastward will help kick the system out to sea later Saturday. If it does so early enough, it could result in less rain and wind across parts of New England.