Extreme Temperatures | Hometown Forecast Services

Labor Day Holiday Weekend Outlook

Many families across the United States will be trying to squeeze in one last summer activity this weekend, as Labor Day marks the unofficial end of the summer season. Fortunately, many areas will experience sunshine and dry weather as high pressure dominates the majority of the pattern across the country, while others may not be so lucky.

A large stalled front will bring rain to much of the Gulf Coast and Southern Plains through the weekend, with heavy rainfall expected. Flash flooding will be a concern for eastern New Mexico, central and western Texas, and the Central Plains on Saturday, while west and central Texas, as well as southern New Mexico, remain at risk for flooding through Sunday. Showers could also spread into the Tennessee Valley on Monday as the front remains stationary.

Heavy rain in association with a stationary front could bring the potential for flash flooding to areas across the central and southern United States on Saturday, and is expected to continue on Sunday, especially in New Mexico and Texas. Images provided by the Weather Prediction Center.

The front will also extend into the Rocky Mountains, bringing showers and thunderstorms to start the weekend. A warm front will break off and progress east on Sunday with a low pressure system moving across the northern part of the country. Areas in extreme eastern Nebraska could be at risk for flash flooding as this system begins progressing east. Temperatures will average well below normal ahead of this system and return to near normal on the backside.

Temperatures will average mainly below normal across the country on Sunday, with values expected to be well below normal in the Plains ahead of a warm front moving out of the Rockies. Image provided by Weather Models.

A cold front in association with a low pressure system slowly moving into Atlantic Canada will extend into the Mid-Atlantic and Tennessee Valley on Saturday, allowing for some extra cloudiness across the region. This system will also send disturbances through the Northeast, bringing an increase in clouds during each afternoon, especially on Saturday. Areas in extreme northern New England may also see a stray shower or two, particularly in the afternoon as the disturbance moves through.

A disturbance will bring the potential for showers and thunderstorms to northern New England on Saturday afternoon, while high pressure keeps the rest of the Northeast dry. Image provided by Tropical Tidbits.

Areas along the West Coast will experience dry weather through the weekend, with temperatures averaging near normal to start the weekend, then shifting above normal toward the end of the weekend, with extreme heat possible, especially in interior areas.

Temperatures will soar into the upper 90s across western Washington, with some areas potentially reaching values close to 100. Image provided by WeatherBell.

Looking at the week ahead, things are expected to remain relatively quiet. Areas across the Central U.S. will continue to see well below normal temperatures ahead of a slow moving warm front. Areas in the west, specifically in the Pacific Northwest, will continue to see above average temperatures, where hot temperatures are expected to continue through the remainder of the week. There are no active storms in either the Atlantic or the Pacific; however, some areas are being monitored for potential development as the week progresses.

Disturbances in the Atlantic and Pacific are being monitored over the next week, where environmental conditions could support the development of tropical systems. Images provided by the National Hurricane Center.

Looking at the Week Ahead (August 9-15, 2025)

August typically brings a range of weather conditions to the United States, from excessive heat to tropical systems and everything in between. As we move into the middle of the month, we are beginning to see this play out.

This weekend will bring dry and warm weather to much of the country. Many areas are expected to experience above-normal temperatures on Saturday. In contrast, others, including the Mid-Atlantic, Southeast, Intermountain West, and North-Central Rockies, are expected to experience below-normal temperatures. A cold front moving into the center of the country on Saturday will allow temperatures to dip below normal across the Central Plains on Sunday. Temperatures will also shift above normal on Sunday in interior areas of the Pacific Northwest as high pressure builds in across the region.

Temperatures average mainly above normal through the weekend across much of the country, with below normal temperatures in the Intermountain West, Southeast, and Mid-Atlantic. Images provided by Weathermodels.

A cold front moving across the central United States will bring a marginal risk of severe weather to the Upper Great Lakes and Central Mississippi Valley, as well as the Central and Southern Plains, through the weekend. The highest risk for severe storms will be on Saturday, with a slight risk of severe weather across southwestern Wisconsin, southeastern Minnesota, northeastern Iowa, and eastern Colorado.

There is a slight risk of severe weather on Saturday for the Upper Midwest and eastern Colorado, with a marginal risk through the weekend from the Upper Midwest to the Southern Plains. Images provided by the Storm Prediction Center.

The cold front will also bring heavy rainfall to the Upper Midwest. There is a moderate risk of excessive rainfall across southwest Wisconsin, eastern Iowa, northwestern Illinois, and northeast Missouri on both Saturday and Sunday, with a slight risk extending from southern Wisconsin to eastern Kansas. A stationary front will continue to produce rain and thunderstorms across much of the Southeastern United States, with a marginal risk of excessive rainfall on both days. Meanwhile, in the Southwest, monsoonal moisture will bring showers and thunderstorms to the region with a marginal risk of excessive rainfall for both Saturday and Sunday.

The Upper Midwest will face the highest risk of excessive rainfall through the weekend, with areas such as the Southeast and Southwest also facing a marginal risk. Images provided by the Weather Prediction Center.

As we move into the beginning of next week, temperatures are expected to rise across the Northeast, with above-normal values anticipated for much of the week. The slow-moving front will bring showers and thunderstorms to the Midwest through the middle of the week before moving into the Northeast toward the second half of the week. The Northeast will see its next potential for rain as this front moves through, ending its dry stretch, which has caused some areas to become abnormally dry across the region.

Areas of the Northeast are becoming abnormally dry as the region continues to see dry conditions. Image provided by the National Drought Mitigation Center.

The stationary front across the south will continue to bring the potential for rain and thunderstorms to much of the region through the end of the week. Areas in the Southwest will also see the possibility of showers and thunderstorms each afternoon as monsoonal moisture remains over the region. Otherwise, high pressure will continue to bring dry weather to the majority of the country.

We will also be monitoring tropical development as the week progresses, since the National Hurricane Center continues to monitor areas in the Atlantic Ocean for possible development over the next seven days. Some models have been in favor of tropical development by the end of the week, but also show vastly different solutions for these systems. At this time, it is still too early to determine whether these storms will develop, never mind their storm tracks.

The National Hurricane Center is monitoring three areas for tropical development in the Atlantic over the next 7 days. Image provided by the National Hurricane Center.

How The Global Circulation Impacts Weather in the East

Over the past few months, there has been consistent troughing over the United States, particularly in the Great Lakes region, which has led to a stormier pattern across the eastern half of the country. One factor that can influence these changes in storm patterns and consistency is teleconnections.

Above to well above normal rainfall has been common across the Northeast over the past 90 days. Image provided by WeatherBell.

Teleconnections are relationships between specific weather phenomena at locations often separated by considerable distances. These phenomena are correlated with particular climate patterns spanning thousands of miles and exhibit variabilities ranging from days to years. Some of these patterns can also have more significant impacts during specific seasons, while others affect the climate pattern throughout the year.

Many of the teleconnection patterns that affect the United Stated have been mostly positive since the start of the year. Image provided by the Climate Prediction Center.

Some of the major teleconnections and patterns that affect North America include the Arctic Oscillation (AO), El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO), East Pacific Pattern (EP), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) , Pacific/North American Pattern (PNA), and Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO). Patterns like ENSO will have a lesser impact on intraseasonal climate variability, as it can take several months to transition between phases. In contrast, the NAO will have a greater impact, as it can change between phases on a more regular basis.

Temperature patterns for North America associated with the different phases of the North Atlantic Oscillation. Image provided by the Climate Prediction Center.

The NAO is an oscillation that impacts the climate pattern throughout the year. The positive phase will generally bring above-normal temperatures with a drier pattern to the Eastern United States, while the negative phase will produce the opposite. In the winter, a negative NAO usually leads to blocking over Greenland, and an increasing chance for more potent storms off the East Coast. The NAO has been mainly in the positive phase since early 2025. Although this may mean dry and warm conditions, the spring of 2025 averaged above normal for both temperature and precipitation across the eastern United States.

The monthly average of the NAO has been leaning positive since the beginning of 2025. Image provided by the National Center for Environmental Information

When examining other teleconnection patterns to identify the potential origins of the persistent unsettled pattern, it can be noted that the East Pacific Pattern transitioned into its positive phase in June, following a predominantly negative phase, especially over the past year. When the East Pacific Pattern is in its positive phase, the Eastern United States will experience more cyclonic activity, i.e., the persistent troughing we’ve been seeing across the Great Lakes and into the Eastern United States over the last several weeks.

The monthly average of the East Pacific Pattern shifted positive in June after leaning negative for the last year. Image provided by the Climate Prediction Center.

The stormy pattern is expected to continue across the East this weekend, as the NAO is expected to turn negative again, and a large trough of low pressure will settle into the Northeast. After a couple of hot and humid days for the first half of the week, a strong cold front will cross the region late Wednesday and Thursday before stalling out across the Mid-Atlantic states. Behind the front, temperatures will be as much as 5-10 degrees below normal for the end of the week and into the start of next week.

Much cooler weather will settle into the Eastern half of the nation this weekend. Image provided by Weathermodels.com.

Along with the cooler weather, the potential exists for more heavy rain and flooding in parts of the Mid-Atlantic states and Northeast. As that front stalls out, a wave of low pressure will ride along it Thursday into Friday. With plenty of moisture in place in the tropical atmosphere south of the front, the wave of low pressure will produce heavy rain and thunderstorms. Some models show the potential for 3-6 inches or more of rainfall in spots in the span of 24-36 hours. Where the heaviest rain falls will be determined by where the front stalls out and the wave rides along it, which is still uncertain at this point.

Models are showing the potential for some heavy rain in the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic at the end of the week. Images provided by Pivotal Weather.

This pattern has the potential to produce other issues as we head deeper into the summer. The tropics have been mostly quiet thus far, but we’re approaching the time of year when activity ramps up. The bulk of storms in the Atlantic form between mid-August and mid-October. While many storms will end up recurving and heading out to sea before impacting the United States, an East Coast threat becomes a little more likely with an upper-level trough of low pressure in the Midwest or near the Appalachians.

Holiday Weekend Outlook

As we begin the Independence Day holiday weekend, high pressure will bring dry weather to many areas of the eastern United States, while places out West could see unsettled weather. A frontal system will move east into the start of next week, bringing showers and thunderstorms across the northern and eastern half of the country. Hot and potentially dangerous temperatures are possible into the start of the week across the Midwest and Northeast. Eyes are on the waters off the Southeast, where tropical storm development is possible around mid-week.

Friday – Independence Day

A cold front that has recently crossed the Northeast will provide perfect weather for the region, high pressure bringing sunshine and lower dewpoints, keeping humidity at a very comfortable level. High pressure will continue to dominate from the Great Lakes to the Gulf Coast, bringing sunshine to most of the Eastern United States.

Much drier air will move into the Northeast for Friday. Image provided by Weathermodels.com

Other areas of the Southeast will see the potential for rain as a low pressure near Florida allows the rain to continue. Remnants of the very short-lived Tropical Storm Barry will also bring the chance for rain and thunderstorms to most of Texas.

Hot and potentially dangerous temperatures are possible across the Upper Mississippi Valley and Northern Plains ahead of a cold front extending from a low pressure system in central Canada. This frontal system will bring rain and thunderstorms to the region, with a marginal risk of strong to severe thunderstorms.

Heat index Values for Friday across the Northern Plains. Image provided by Pivotal Weather.

Monsoonal moisture will produce showers and thunderstorms across parts of the Southwest, especially during the afternoon. A system in the Northwestern United States will bring showers with a chance of thunderstorms to the Pacific Northwest, Great Basin, and Intermountain West.

Saturday

The hot temperatures will progress east as the frontal system moves across the northern United States, the marginal risk of severe weather continues across the Upper Great Lakes while also shifting to the central Mississippi Valley. The front will wrap up into the Central Plains as it converges with a weaker system in the Northwest, with a marginal risk of severe weather in the west-central Plains.

The low pressure near Florida will bring another day of showers and thunderstorms to the state as moisture from Barry continues to sit over Texas, with more showers and thunderstorms possible.

Monsoonal moisture will allow the potential for afternoon showers and thunderstorms to return across the Southwest.

Sunday

Showers and thunderstorms will begin to taper off across Florida as the low pressure system nearby slowly pulls away from the region and moves up the East Coast, bringing shower and thunderstorm activity into the Mid-Atlantic.

Hot and humid weather will return to the Northeast as the frontal system continues its eastward progression. Showers and thunderstorms are possible from the Great Lakes to the Southern Plains. The weaker system follows behind the main system, bringing the potential for showers and thunderstorms to the Central and Northern Plains.

Heat indices across the Northeast on Sunday. Image provided by WeatherBell.

Monsoonal moisture could potentially bring more showers and thunderstorms to the Southwest.

Monday through Friday

Hot and humid weather will continue across the Northeast on Monday as the frontal system continues its progression east with showers and thunderstorms possible from the Northeast to the Southern Plains. A weaker low pressure system following this system will continue to produce showers and thunderstorms through the Central Plains.

The low pressure system in the Southeast will continue its journey up the East Coast, allowing for the potential of showers and thunderstorms across the Mid-Atlantic. This system will begin to interact with the large frontal system on Tuesday, allowing the front to become stationary across the Tennessee Valley. The stationary front will produce showers and thunderstorms from the Ohio Valley to the Gulf Coast through the end of the week. These two systems will be monitored for tropical system development as they move offshore.

The East will be unsettled with the West turns drier next week. Loop provided by Pivotal Weather.

The smaller low pressure in the Central Plains will begin to weaken on Tuesday, allowing the shower and thunderstorm potential to diminish. Drier weather is expected through the middle of the week before another system develops toward the end of the week, bringing the potential for showers and thunderstorms.

Monsoon moisture will allow for the potential of afternoon showers and thunderstorms each afternoon.

Heat, Humidity, and a Snowstorm?

Hot and humid conditions are expected across the eastern half of the nation as we go through the first weekend of summer.

A ridge of high pressure brings heat and humidity to the eastern half of the nation over the next few days. Loop provided by Pivotal Weather.

A large ridge of high pressure centered over the Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys Saturday morning will slowly move eastward over the next few days, resulting in hot and humid conditions for a large portion of the nation. The heat and humidity are focused on the Plains States and Mississippi Valley to start the weekend with Heat Advisories and Extreme Heat Warnings in place from the Northern and Central Plains into the Mississippi Valley and the Midwest. High temperatures will reach the 90s in much of this region, with highs topping 100 in parts of the Northern and Central Plains, possibly setting records in a few spots. With dewpoints in the upper 60s and 70s, the heat index will reach 100 to as high as 110 in much of the region. The heat will continue into Sunday, with widespread highs in the 90s and lower 100s expected once again and heat indices in excess of 100, but an approaching cold front will produce showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening, some of which could be strong to severe, bringing relief to the region.

The heat index will top 100 across much of the nation’s mid-section Saturday afternoon. Image provided by WeatherBell.

The heat and humidity will shift into the Great Lakes and Northeast on Sunday, with record highs expected in many areas as temperatures rise well into the 90s. Dewpoints will be climbing into the 60s and 70s, resulting in heat indices near or over 100. Heat Advisories and Extreme Heat Watches and Warnings have been issued for much of this region. As we head into the start of the new week, the focus of the heat will shift once again to the heavily-populated Interstate 95 corridor along the East Coast. High temperatures in the upper 90s to possibly lower 100s are expected on Monday in this area likely setting records in dozens of locations, more likely on Tuesday. When the humidity is factored in, the heat index will reach 105 to 110 degrees in many areas. Little relief is expected at night, as nighttime lows only drop into the 70s, with some of the urban areas possibly staying above 80. A backdoor cold front may bring some relief to parts of New England, possibly as far south as the New York City area on Wednesday, but heat and humidity will continue across the Mid-Atlantic states.

Temperatures could approach 100 across much of the Northeast on Tuesday. Image provided by Weathermodels.com

While heat is making headlines across the eastern half of the nation, in the Northern Rockies, a late-season winter storm is moving in. A storm system moving in will bring strong winds and heavy precipitation to the region today and into Sunday. Sustained winds of 30-40 mph with gusts in excess of 60 mph are expected in some areas. Across the higher elevations of western Montana and eastern Idaho snow levels have fallen as low as 5000 feet. Above that level, snowfall totals of 4-8 inches are expected by Sunday morning, with totals of 10-20 inches expected once you get above 6000 feet. Winter Storm Warnings and Winter Weather Advisories have been issued for much of this region. The chilly weather won’t last long, as temperatures return to near to above normal levels across the region by Tuesday.

Heavy snow is expected across the higher elevations of Montana and Idaho this weekend. Image provided by Weathermodels.com

Hot and Humid Weather and Severe Storms Target the East Coast

The summer solstice occurs at 10:41pm Friday, marking the official start of astronomical summer in the Northern Hemisphere. Summer weather will arrive along the East Coast just before that.

Astronomical summer begins Friday night. Image provided by the National Weather Service.

A frontal system extending from the Great Lakes into Southern Plains will slowly make its way eastward over the next few days. Ahead of the front, warm and humid air will result in an unstable atmosphere, with showers and thunderstorms developing. This front produced severe weather on Tuesday from the Front Range of the Rockies into the Central and Southern Plains, and severe thunderstorms will likely be more widespread on Wednesday from the Southern Plains into the Great Lakes. Some of the stronger storms may produce damaging winds, large hail, torrential downpours, and tornadoes, especially across parts of the Ohio Valley.

Severe weather is expected across a large swath of real estate from the Southern Plains to the Great Lakes on Wednesday. Image provided by the Storm Prediction Center.

The front will continue marching eastward, heading toward the East Coast on Thursday. Ahead of the front, hot and humid weather is expected, especially along the heavily-populated I-95 corridor. For parts of the Northeast, especially from the New York City area into Southern New England, this could be the first time the mercury reaches 90 since August 28, 2024. For areas farther south, from Philadelphia into North Carolina, temperatures already reached or exceeded 90 at least once this year but could get into the middle 90s on Thursday. Accompanying the heat will be humid conditions, with dewpoints getting into the 70s for much of the region. This will result in heat indices in the middle to upper 90s for many areas, possibly over 100 from Washington southward to North Carolina.

The heat index will get well into 90s and lower 100s for much of the East Coast Thursday afternoon. Image provided by WeatherBell.

Luckily, the heat and humidity will be short-lived. The aforementioned cold front will move into the region during the afternoon and evening, producing more showers and thunderstorms, some of which could be strong to severe. The timing of the front will help determine where the strongest storms develop, but the main threats with any storms that do form are damaging winds, heavy downpours, and hail, with a few tornadoes possible.

Severe weather is possible on Thursday from parts of New England to the Carolinas. Image provided by the Storm Prediction Center

Drier weather settles into the East behind the front for Friday and Saturday, though temperatures will remain near to above normal. There’s a good chance that much of the Northeast will see its streak of 13 consecutive Saturdays with rainfall finally come to an end, but that is not guaranteed yet. Some models are showing the potential for a cluster of thunderstorms to develop in the Northern Plains Friday night, then race across the Northern Great Lakes and into parts of Northern New York and New England by Saturday night. Beyond that forecast models are showing the potential for a ridge of high pressure to settle into the East Coast for the first half of next week, resulting in an extended period of hot and humid weather.

A ridge of high pressure could bring another shot of heat and humidity to the East Coast early next week. Image provided by Pivotal Weather.

The Week Ahead: November 14-20, 2022

Winter will finally make an appearance across a large portion of the nation during the upcoming week.

Low pressure moving across the Southwest will have a large impact on a good portion of the nation this week. Image provided by NOAA.

Low pressure will move out of the Southwest and across the Southern Plains today, before heading across the Deep South and then off the Mid-Atlantic coast by midweek. To the south, it will produce showers and thunderstorms across parts of Texas and eventually the Gulf Coast and the Southeast over the next few days. Some strong storms are possible, but a severe weather outbreak is not expected. The bigger story will be what takes place north of the system. Some light snow or a wintry mix will move across the Plains states today and into the Mississippi Valley tonight and Tuesday. While the snow won’t be heavy, a few inches could accumulate in some spots, which will be the first accumulating snow of the season for some locations.

Some locally heavy rain is possible along the Gulf Coast over the next few days. Image provided by Weathermodels.com

By later Tuesday, as the low moves off the Mid-Atlantic coast, a second, weaker low will also move across the Midwest, producing some light snow across this region, with rain across the Tennessee Valley. As both of these lows head eastward, precipitation will move into the Northeast. Precipitation may start as a wintry mix early Wednesday across the northern and western suburbs of New York and Boston, but for the cities of the I-95 corridor, this will be mostly a rainstorm. Farther inland, from central Pennsylvania into much of Upstate New York, and Northern New England, several inches of snow could accumulate before any potential changeover to rain. As the storm intensifies off the East Coast, heavier snow is possible in parts of northern and eastern Maine and into Atlantic Canada.

A swath of light to moderate snow is expected from the Southern Plains to the Northeast over the next few days. Image provided by WeatherBell.

While temperatures are currently below normal across most of the nation, even colder air will spill southward from Canada behind this storm. By the end of the week, some record lows are possible, especially in parts of the Plains States and Northern Rockies, where some sub-zero temperatures are possible. By the end of the week, below normal readings are likely across most of the nation except for the immediate West Coast, and parts of southern Florida. From the Appalachians westward to the Rockies, temperatures will be 15 to 30 degrees below normal for the end of the week and into next weekend.

Very cold air will invade much of the nation late this week. Image provided by Weathermodels.com.

As that cold air pours over the Great Lakes, some lake-effect snow is expected. Locations downwind of Lakes Superior and Michigan could see several inches of snow by mid-week, similar to what they had over the weekend. However, it’s the areas downwind of Lakes Erie and Ontario that could see some exceptionally heavy amounts. Totals could exceed a foot from Buffalo to Cleveland, with the location of the heaviest snowfall obviously dependent on the wind direction, but its the area east of Lake Ontario, specifically the Tug Hill Plateau of northern New York that could see the heaviest amounts.

Parts of northern and western New York could see some hefty snow totals later this week. Images provided by Pivotal Weather.

The Week Ahead: November 7-13, 2022

A very active week is expected across the nation this week, with everything from hurricanes to blizzards, and record highs to record lows expected.

The week is starting out active and will remain that way for the next several days. Image provided by NOAA.

Low pressure is moving into the Pacific Northwest this morning, with rain strong winds, and mountain snow expected. As this storm spreads inland, heavy rain will spread across most of the West, including all of California, with heavy snow across the higher elevations and through the Great Basin and into the Rockies. Winter Weather Advisories, Winter Storm Warnings, and High Wind Warnings are in effect for many locations already. Rainfall totals of 1-2 inches and locally heavier will be welcomed across California, helping to put a dent into the drought and aiding efforts to extinguish the many wildfires still burning across the West. Across the mountains, snowfall totals of 1-2 feet and locally heavier are expected in parts of the Cascades and Sierra Nevada, with up to a foot possible across the mountains of the Interior Northwest and Northern Rockies.

Heavy rain is expected across most of California over the next few days. Image provided by WeatherBell.

By Thursday, the system will move into the Plains and toward the Great Lakes. Ahead of the storm, record high temperatures are possible once again, with the threat of some severe weather in the Mississippi Valley. However, it’s across the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest where impact will be the greatest. The combination of strong winds, gusting to 40-50 mph, and heavy snow, possibly as much as 8-16 inches across parts of the Dakotas and northern Minnesota as well as the southern Canadian Prairies, will result in blizzard conditions at times later Thursday into Friday.

The models all have heavy snow forecast for the Dakotas and northern Minnesota, but differ on the amounts and placement. Images provided by Pivotal Weather.

Behind the storm, especially with fresh snowcover, some of the coldest air so far this fall will pour into the Rockies and Northern Plains with high temperatures for the end of the week and the weekend only in the teens and 20s, and some subzero low temperatures likely. As that storm continues into southeastern Canada, it will drag a cold front across the eastern third of the nation for the end of the week. By the time it reaches the East Coast late Saturday, nearly the entire nation will experience temperatures that are below normal for mid-November, a rather big change from what the eastern half of the nation has experiences for the past couple of weeks.

By Sunday, temperatures will be below normal across virtually the entire Lower 48. Image provided by Weathermodels.com

While all this is going on, we also need to pay attention to the tropics. Hurricane Season doesn’t officially end until November 30, and we’re keeping an eye on two separate areas at this time. The first is centered a few hundred miles east of Bermuda. As it drifts around over marginally warm waters, it could become a subtropical or tropical storm over the next day or two. It likely won’t last that long, as a strong cold front moving off the East Coast today will absorb this system by midweek and send it out over the colder waters of the North Atlantic.

The models are unanimous that the system east of Bermuda will not be a threat to land this week. Image provided by Tropical Tidbits.

The second area is a much bigger concern. A low pressure area few hundred miles north of Puerto Rico has been producing heavy rain across Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands for the past few days, with rainfall totals of 5-10 inches producing flooding in some locations. The system is expected to move northwestward while slowly organizing, and could become a tropical depression or storm over the next few days. Eventually, it will turn toward the west, passing close to or over the northern Bahamas, then heading toward the East Coast of Florida. Heavy rain, strong winds, and rough surf are likely across much of Florida as the system draws closer at mid-week. Some models have the storm close to hurricane strength before landfall somewhere across east-central Florida. After landfall, the mostly likely scenario is a turn toward the north and eventually northeast as a strong trough of low pressure moves into the Eastern US.

Ensemble forecasts for the track of a disturbance north of Puerto Rico. Image provided by Tomer Burg.

Once the system makes the turn, it will likely move back into the Atlantic and up the East Coast. While it will lose its characteristics, it will still produce heavy rain, gusty winds, and rough seas from the Carolinas northward to New England. Given its tropical origins, some of the rain could be especially heavy near the coast, with widespread totals of 2-4 inches possible. The strong cold front marching eastward will help kick the system out to sea later Saturday. If it does so early enough, it could result in less rain and wind across parts of New England.

The Week Ahead: September 19-25, 2022

Hurricane Fiona is grabbing the headlines, but it’s not the only area we’re watching this week.

The surface map doesn’t look that busy, but there is plenty going on. Image provided by NOAA.

Hurricane Fiona produced strong winds and catastrophic flooding across parts of the northeastern Caribbean over the weekend, especially Puerto Rico, and today it’s the Dominican Republic’s turn. Once it moves back into the Atlantic later today, a northward track is expected for the next few days. It may bring strong winds and heavy rain to the Turks and Caicos as well as parts of the southeastern Bahamas over the next few days, but as it moves over open water, additional strengthening is expected. By the latter half of the week, it could have Bermuda in its sights. Its still too early to determine what, if any, impact it will have on Bermuda, but anything from a glancing blow to a direct hit as a major hurricane is possible. By the end of the week,, it should be heading out into the North Atlantic and starting to weaken, though residents of Atlantic Canada and Newfoundland should keep an eye on Fiona.

Forecast track for Hurricane Fiona. Image provided by the Bermuda Weather Service.

Out West, an early-season storm will bring some much-needed rainfall to parts of California over the next few days. The rain began Sunday, but will continue into Tuesday or even Wednesday in parts of the state. Some spots could pick up 1-2 inches or more by the time everything winds down. This will help put a small dent in the ongoing drought across the state, but will also be a big help to the firefighting efforts for the numerous wildfires burning across the region.

California will get some much-needed rain over the next few days. Image provided by Weathermodels.com

Heat will return to the nation’s midsection over the next few days, gradually spreading into parts of the Mississippi Valley and the Deep South as the week goes on. High temperatures well into the 90s and possibly lower 100s are expected, which is 10-to-20 degrees above normal for late-September. Many record high temperatures are expected over the next several days.

Record highs are expected in many locations from the Plains to the East Coast this week. Images provided by WeatherBell.

While heat covers much of the nation, late in the week, cool weather will be the story from the Northern Plains to the Northeast. A strong cold front will produce some rain across these areas during the latter half of the week, but behind that front, much cooler air will settle in. Frost and freezing temperatures may bring an end to the growing season from parts of the Great Lakes into northern New England by the end of the week. In fact, as that front moves through, the rain may mix with or even change to wet snow across some of the higher elevations of northern New York and New England Thursday night and early Friday. While this is a bit early, it’s not that unusual for some of the higher peaks to see snow in late September. Atop New Hampshire’s Mt. Washington snow has already been reported a couple of times this month.

Temperatures will be below to well below normal across the Northeast at the end of the week. Loop provided by Pivotal Weather.

The Week Ahead: September 5-11, 2022

A rather active week is expected across much of the nation for the first full week of meteorological autumn.

High pressure dominates the northern tier of states to begin the week. Image provided by NOAA.

A large ridge of high pressure remains in place across the West for a good portion of the upcoming week. As a result, the intense heat wave will continue from the Front Range of the Rockies westward to the Pacific Coast. Daily high temperatures well into the 90s and 100s are expected across the region, with many places across parts of interior California and the Southwest likely topping 110 degrees. Dozens of record highs are expected during each of the next several afternoons. Excessive Heat Warnings and Heat Advisories remain in effect for many locations. The heat, combined with low humidity and gusty winds will also result in a high fire danger for many areas. Fire Weather Watches and Red Flag Warnings are in effect for parts of the region. In addition to some of the ongoing fires, any new ones that develop could rapidly spread in this pattern.

Many record highs are expected across the West during the next several afternoons. Images provided by WeatherBell.

Meanwhile, a slow-moving frontal system will bring some heavy rain from the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys into parts of the Mid-Atlantic states and the Northeast over the next few days. Many places could receive 1-3 inches of rain over this time frame, with some heavier totals possible. In the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys, this is not good news, as it will likely result in flooding in many locations. Flood Watches are in effect for parts of the area. From the Mid-Atlantic into the Northeast, the rain will be very welcome, despite much of it falling on Labor Day, as much of the region has been under a severe to extreme drought for the past few months. Any rain that falls is welcome, as it will help to replenish the rivers, lakes, ponds, and reservoirs across the region. With all of the cloud cover and rain, temperatures will be as much as 6-12 degrees below normal across parts of the area today and again on Tuesday.

Heavy rain is expected across parts of the East today and Tuesday. Image provided by WeatherBell.

Across the Southwest, what has been a very wet monsoon season thus far has slowed day in recent days, but that could change later this week. Tropical Storm Kay developed off the southwest coast of Mexico on Sunday. The current forecast calls for it to strengthen into a hurricane in the next few days while turning northwestward, paralleling the coast of Mexico. It could impact parts of the Baja California peninsula later this week. By the end of the week, the moisture from the system (or what’s left of it), may spread into parts of the Southwest, enhancing the monsoon once again and bringing the threat for flooding to parts of Arizona and southern California.

Forecast track for Tropical Storm Kay. Image provided by the National Hurricane Center.

Elsewhere in the tropics, we have two named systems in the Atlantic – Hurricane Danielle and Tropical Storm Earl. Danielle is centered about 950 miles west of the Azores, but should start heading off toward the northeast and east over the next few days. Maximum sustained winds are near 90 mph, but as it moves over colder waters over the next few days, it will weaken and likely will become extratropical later this week. It may bring gusty winds and heavy rain to parts of the British Isles by the end of the week, after the system currently doing the same weakens and moves away from the UK.

Forecast track for Hurricane Danielle. Image provided by the National Hurricane Center.

Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Earl is gradually strengthening in the waters north of Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands. Heavy rain and gusty winds will wind down across the islands today as Earl pulls away to the north. The forecast for Earl is fairly simple of the next day or two – it will continue in a general northerly direction while strengthening, and could become a hurricane. Beyond that, there is some uncertainty. Most of the models show an upper-level trough moving across the central Atlantic pulling Earl off toward the northeast and out into open water. However, if that trough does not pull Earl out to sea, it could continue northward or even northwestward, which would increase the threat Earl may pose to Bermuda, before another trough comes along and eventually does send Earl out to sea.

Track forecasts for Tropical Storm Earl from several ensembles. Image provided by Tomer Burg

In the Western Pacific Ocean, Typhoon Hinnamnor will pass close to or across southeastern portions of South Korea today, with top winds likely still in the 100-110 mph range. Storm surge will likely be confined to just a small portion of the South Korean coastline, but that area includes the city of Busan, the 2nd most populous city in South Korea. Busan is also the 6th busiest port in the world. Heavy rain and gusty winds are likely across much of the Korean Peninsula, but also could impact parts of Japan over the next few days as the system heads northeastward while weakening and becoming extratropical.